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Covid-19 Diligence Briefing

Our briefing for Monday May 11, 2020:

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for the country to get back on its feet was met with confusion and criticism. Government officials had to do some damage control on Monday after citizens were left confused by Johnson’s televised address to the nation on Sunday. For instance, people weren’t sure how many people could meet together outdoors, or when businesses should return to work. The UK will have three phases to the easing of their lockdown; the first starting this Wednesday. People will be allowed to leave their households as often as they want for exercise and leisure, but still maintain social distancing. Workers in construction and manufacturing sectors should actively be encouraged to go to work, but those taking public transit are urged to wear masks to limit spread of the virus. Stage two, which will not take place before June 1st, will include phased reopening of primary schools and non-essential shops.

  • In the United States, three senior officials guiding the country through the coronavirus pandemic are now in self-quarantine after coming in contact with two White House staffers who tested positive for the disease. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Stephen Hahn, Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will all be monitoring themselves for any symptoms over the next two weeks. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence are being tested daily, and so far have tested negative. Elsewhere in America, parts of upstate New York will be allowed to reopen once their state shutdown expires this Friday. Governor Andrew Cuomo though noted New York City isn’t there yet, having hit just four of seven metrics an area must meet before they are allowed to start the reopening process.

  • The Canadian federal government will be offering bridge financing for big Canadian businesses across all sectors, except for banks. The bulk of the details were not delivered, but Prime Minster Justin Trudeau made the announcement during his Monday news briefing. Employers with annual revenues of more than $300 million can apply for support whose credit needs aren’t being met through conventional financing. Trudeau insisted this program was of the bridge loan variety, not a “bailout” and the government is a “lender of last resort.”

  • After two months of strict lockdown, France was allowed to emerge on Monday. Reports noted the shops on Paris’s famed Champs-Elysees were only half open and the notorious traffic jams in France’s capital city were absent. Government has encouraged businesses to continue allowing employees to work from home and are promoting bicycles and other modes of transport, as opposed to buses, trains and subways if possible.

  • With unemployment doubling in the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled his plan for citizens to head back to work as early as Tuesday. Putin emphasized the lifting of restrictions would be gradual and the world’s largest country (in terms of land) would need to tailor their approach to local conditions. Moscow will keep its lockdown measures in place until May 31st. Russia has recorded nine straight days of 10,000 or more new cases, and now have the third most cases in the world trailing only the United States and Spain.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Hg said to Top $11 Billion for its Largest Ever Buyout Funds

Brief: Hg will soon stop accepting new money for three of its buyout funds after raising $11 billion for its largest ever pool of capital, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.K.-based private equity firm, which focuses on software and service businesses, will divide as much as $10 billion equally between its second large-cap fund, known as Saturn, and its ninth mid-cap fund, known as Genesis, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. An additional $1.5 billion has been raised for the firm’s third small-cap fund called Mercury, the people said. Hg’s first investment from Saturn will go to increasing its stake in Norwegian cloud software developer Visma Group, the people said. Last April, private equity firm Cinven Group sold its stake in Visma to Hg and co-investors, valuing the business at more than 6.5 billion euros ($7 billion) at the time. Hg has been invested in Visma since 2006 when it led the company’s delisting from the Oslo Stock Exchange.

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Scott Minerd sees ‘Moral Obligation’ Arising from Virus Bailouts

Brief: Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, thinks that government support of corporate America in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic will ultimately lead to the creation of a “new moral obligation” to help U.S. companies access credit. “Corporate borrowers are most likely on the way to becoming something akin to government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” he wrote in a note dated May 10. “Many companies, including Boeing, Southwest, and Hyatt Hotels, have likely gained access to financing simply on the strength of the government’s intentions to intervene in credit markets.” Minerd, who on Friday warned that markets were sending a clear message that negative rates would soon be here, said he thought yields on 10-year Treasury notes could fall to -50 basis points in the intermediate term.

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BlackRock and Pimco Take Lead Role in Managing Federal Reserve’s Coronavirus Stimulus

Brief: The Federal Reserve’s giant programme of corporate bond buying is about to kick in. It will hand a critical new role in propping the struggling economy to a business with increasing clout in the financial world: money management. The central bank has tapped BlackRock to help it direct money into both new and already issued corporate bonds, assisting the Fed in its recently adopted role as lender of last resort for businesses. The Fed is expected to launch the programme in coming days. The Fed also has given Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco, the job of helping it purchase commercial paper, or companies’ short-term borrowings. That programme is already up and running. The two firms could eventually invest hundreds of billions of central bank dollars.

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Future Air Travel: Four-Hour Process, Self Check-In, Disinfection, Immunity Passes

Brief: Once airports and borders open again and people are able to fly freely — a process already in play as airports of all sizes around the world ready strategies to ensure healthy air travel — how much are you ready to change your flying habits?  As much as was required after 9/11? Less? More? Considering some of the changes already happening and the many more recommended before airports can reopen safely to commercial routes, experts are referring to the coronavirus pandemic as ‘the new terrorism,’ triggering the biggest crisis the airline industry has ever faced. Let’s start with the entire process of checking in for flights, which some calculate that it could take up to four hours and involving social distancing, sanitation of passengers and luggage, wider spaces for various lines and waiting to board. Nine out of 10 experts expect slower turnarounds between flights due to the need of thorough cleaning of cabins and following of sanitary measures at airports.

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Carlyle, GIC Back Away from AmEx Global Business Travel Deal

Brief: Private-equity firm Carlyle Group Inc. and Singapore sovereign-wealth fund GIC Pte. Ltd. are backing away from a deal to take a 20% stake in American Express Global Business Travel, whose revenue has plummeted as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, according to people familiar with the matter.The deal, announced in December, values the company at $5 billion including debt. It was scheduled to close Thursday but representatives for Carlyle and GIC informed AmEx Global Business Travel on Wednesday they wouldn't participate in the closing, the people said. AmEx Global Business Travel, which is 50%-owned by American Express Co., offers airfare and hotel-booking services mostly to large and midsize businesses. In 2014 the credit-card giant sold the other half to a group led by investment firm Certares. Carlyle and GIC, along with a group of others, agreed to purchase a portion of that stake last year.An entity acting on behalf of the sellers filed a motion this past week in Delaware Chancery Court against Carlyle and GIC, calling for it to compel the duo to proceed with the purchase.

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Michael Hintze’s CQS is Experiencing a Nightmare

Brief: CQS is facing its worst crisis since Michael Hintze founded the London-based credit-driven multistrategy firm in 1999. At least three of its funds are among the worst-performing hedge funds this year after posting massive losses in March alone, when the global financial markets were in free fall. Other funds have posted smaller declines. These huge losses have raised questions about the future direction of the firm, which was managing $20 billion at the beginning of the year. In March alone, the CQS Directional Opportunities Fund, which Hintze manages himself, lost more than 33 percent, according to a document from investment bank HSBC that tracks hedge fund returns. As a result, it was down 35 percent for the quarter. 

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Friday May 8, 2020:

  • The United States Department of Labor confirmed what many already feared: April 2020 was by far the most sudden and largest decline of jobs since the government began tracking data in 1939. The American economy lost 20.5 million jobs last month, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%. The last time unemployment numbers were that high was during the Great Depression when it peaked at 24.9% in 1933.

  • North of the border in Canada, the numbers were not much better. Statistics Canada noted two million jobs were lost in April, causing the unemployment rate to spike to 13%, compared to 7.8% in March. Since comparable data started being recorded in 1976, the April unemployment rate was the second highest on record. December 1982 remains the highest at 13.1%. The province of Quebec has the highest unemployment rate among all provinces at 17%, and unfortunately it won’t get much better for the time being. This is due to Montreal’s planned reopening being pushed back for the second time. Elementary schools, daycares and retail stores that have entrances to outside streets will have to wait until May 25th to possibly reopen.

  • As United Kingdom citizens eagerly await to see what Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Sunday news conference has in store for the country, government officials seem to be making sure people temper their expectations. The country’s environment and culture secretaries warned there will be no dramatic overnight change to its lockdown restrictions once next week rolls around. The UK is closing in on 212,000 cases and has 31,000+ deaths due to the coronavirus.

  • The mayor of Milan, Italy made an angry television appearance on Friday threatening to pass measures of shutting down the city once again. Mayor Giuseppe Sala called television footage “disgraceful” as it showed crowds of people gathering in open spaces of the city and apparently ignoring public health rules aimed at preventing a second wave of the virus. Italy only loosened some of Europe’s toughest restrictions on Monday May 4th. “Either things change today, or tomorrow I’ll be here in Palazzo Marino and I’ll pass measure to close the Navigli, I’ll stop takeaway services and then you can explain to the people who work in bars why the mayor isn’t allowing them to do business,” said Sala.

  • As promised, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled his government’s plan to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic. Prime Minister Morrison announced a three-step plan to reopen the country’s economy by July. The first stage includes family and friends allowed to visit each other while restaurants, stores and cafes can reopen. The second stage will allow larger gatherings of up to 20 people, while organized community sporting events and beauty parlors can resume operations. The final stage will allow gatherings of 100 people and interstate travel will be permitted to resume.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Credit Funds in India see Big Outflows on Franklin Mutual Stock

Brief: Indian credit risk funds suffered large redemptions in April after Franklin Templeton’s shock decision to wind up $4.1 billion of such plans triggered fresh turbulence in the nation’s debt market. The category saw a net withdrawals of 192 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) last month, up from outflows of 55.7 billion rupees in March, according to data released Friday by the Association of Mutual Funds in India. “The Franklin event intensified redemptions in credit funds that we saw in March,” said Vidya Bala, head of research and co-founder at Chennai-based Primeinvestor.in. “There’s a clear flight to safety as flows to gilt funds have jumped and a good chunk would have moved to deposits.” Equity funds received a net 62.1 billion rupees, the smallest inflow this year, as the world’s most expansive lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus infections stalled economic activity and disrupted processes at mutual funds and their distributors.

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Macquarie Group Ready to Invest, Despite Crisis

Brief: Macquarie Group chief executive Shemara Wikramanayake has signalled the bank could pounce on assets that come up for sale in the pandemic crisis, after slashing dividends and warning of a highly uncertain outlook. As the banking group on Friday delivered an 8 per cent slide in profit to $2.7 billion, it also highlighted a strong balance sheet and $20 billion in "dry powder" for investment by its infrastructure-focused managed funds. Markets cheered the result, with Macquarie shares gaining 5.7 per cent to $105.19 amid predictions the bank would emerge from the crisis in relatively good shape, despite taking a short-term hit. The company known as the "Millionaires' Factory" on Friday also released its remuneration report for the financial year, which showed Ms Wikramanayake was awarded $18.1 million for the year, her first full 12 months as CEO, up from $17 million last year. She was not the highest paid senior executive at Macquarie, with head of Macquarie Asset Management Martin Stanley awarded $18.9 million for the year after a surge in profit in his division.

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A Swedish Real Estate Mogul Has His Bond Investors Very Worried

Brief: Bondholders in one of Sweden’s biggest property firms say they fear their investment might soon be labeled junk after learning of a criminal probe with wide-reaching ramifications. The company in question is Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB, also known as SBB. Its chief executive, Ilija Batljan, was this week detained by police for questioning amid reports of insider trading tied to a recent acquisition. The news sent SBB’s share price and bonds plunging. The episode has struck a nerve in a market already shaken by panic selling. Back in March, 35 credit funds slammed shut to halt a client exodus as the bond market tanked. Real estate bonds played a big role in the rout, and the financial watchdog has since signaled concern over the sector’s dominance in credit markets, following its conspicuous growth.

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Brookfield to Create $5 Billion Retail Revitalization Program

Brief: Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (“Brookfield”) (TSX: BAM.A, NYSE: BAM) today announced the launch of a Retail Revitalization Program (“the Program”) to bring much needed capital and assist with the recapitalization of retail businesses with operations in the major markets in which Brookfield operates globally. The Program, which will be funded by Brookfield and its institutional partners, will focus on non-control investments in retail businesses to assist with their capital needs during this period of dislocation. Brookfield is targeting $5 billion to be put toward this Program. This Program will be led by Ron Bloom, Managing Partner and Vice Chairman of Brookfield’s Private Equity Group, who was a principal architect of the restructuring and rejuvenation of the automobile industry on behalf of the U.S. government during the 2008 financial crisis. “This initiative is being designed to assist medium sized enterprises in getting back on their feet. We believe this is a critical component to getting the economy moving again, and we would like to partner with companies and entrepreneurs that can draw on our capital and expertise to stabilize and grow their business,” stated Bloom.

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The Pandemic is Transforming the Wealth Management Industry, UBS says

Brief: The Covid-19 pandemic has sparked dramatic changes to the wealth management industry, making clients more cautious, more digitally savvy and more interested in sustainable investments, according to a UBS Group AG executive in Hong Kong. “The whole pandemic has transformed the business and also the way we operate,” said Amy Lo, co-head of Asia Pacific wealth for the Swiss bank. “The world has become more digital, less global and more local.” Lo says clients across the region have become more cautious, concerned about preserving their wealth and re-balancing portfolios as the global economy heads into its steepest contraction since the Great Depression. “Diversify and navigate volatility,” is the goal for many clients, said Lo, whose firm manages more than $400 billion in the region. UBS’s investments in its digital platform are paying dividends amid the pandemic, allowing clients to interact with the bank through online conferences, chats, and trading, she said.

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Amundi Lifts Pandemic Hiring Freeze

Brief: Amundi, Europe's largest listed asset manager, has lifted a hiring freeze it imposed shortly after the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, making it one of the first major investment firms to ease recruitment related restrictions. A spokesperson for the Paris-headquartered asset manager, which put a hold on making new hires globally at the end of March, toldFinancial Newsit has "resumed recruitment on a case-by-case basis". Amundi, which employs around 4,500 people and manages €1.5tn globally, previously told FNthat the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak and subsequent government containment measures put in place hadprompted it to pause new hires. The lifting of Amundi's hiring freeze comes as predictions point to an uncertain future for those working in the financial services sector. According torecent figures from recruitment firm Morgan McKinley, jobs available in the City have dropped by 51% since March 2019 – a drop which has coincided with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Thursday May 7, 2020:

  • The coronavirus pandemic has made two months ago feel like two years ago. Nowhere is this more evident than the unemployment numbers in the United States. In the beginning of March, the country was experiencing its lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. Fast forward to Thursday where another 3.2 million Americans filed for insurance benefits. One in five Americans have now tried to claim unemployment benefits since mid-March. CNN is reporting the Trump Administration will not implement the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines for reopening the country after asking for it. A senior CDC and administration official were sourced in the report, noting a 17-page recommendation from the CDC went to White House task force officials who found it “overly prescriptive” and that their guidance was too much ‘one size fits all’.

  • During a Thursday news briefing, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a $4 billion plan to boost pay for essential workers. The final details of the plan are still being worked out with the provinces who will be responsible for deciding which workers are eligible. British Columbia’s Premier John Horgan revealed his province’s plan on its next phase in reopening the province, which could include healthy people able to hold small gatherings once the Victoria Day long weekend rolls around in two weeks. A range of businesses including non-urgent health care, stores, libraries, parks, salons and restaurants could also resume by the middle of May, assuming they can meet public health guidelines.

  • The Bank of England has forecasted the coronavirus will push United Kingdom’s economy into its deepest recession in 300 years. The country’s output has plunged 30% in the first half of the year, but the central bank has no plans to launch a new stimulus package.

  • France plans to start easing its two-month lockdown as of Monday May 11th. Edouard Phillipe, the country’s Prime Minister noted some special restrictions will remain in place for the Paris region as the number of COVID-19 cases remain high and is densely populated. Social distancing guidelines will be enforced on public transport as 400,000 businesses plan to reopen in the country, while secondary schools and parks in the capital will remain closed. France has had 25,000 deaths due to the coronavirus pandemic.

  • Russia’s coronavirus cases have overtaken France and Germany to become the fifth most in the world with close to 180,000. Despite this, President Vladimir Putin has backed a plan by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin to gradually begin lifting restrictions after May 12th, which would allow certain industrial facilities to begin working. Those taking public transport would be required to wear a mask and gloves.

  • The World Health Organization (WHO) is considering a new mission to China to seek the source of the coronavirus pandemic. A WHO epidemiologist said without knowing where the animal origin is, it’s hard to prevent an outbreak like this from happening again. During a Thursday news briefing, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman didn’t directly answer if the country would allow WHO officials in for their fact-finding mission.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Hedge Funds Post Best Month in Six Years, Led by Equities

Brief: Hedge funds rose 4.2% in April, the most in data going back to January 2014, as U.S. stocks rebounded to their best return in more than 30 years. Equity managers led the gains, posting a 6.5% advance in the month, according to preliminary figures from the Bloomberg Hedge Fund Indices. So far this year, hedge funds are down 6.7%. That still has outpaced the S&P 500 Index, which sunk about 9% for the first four months of the year, including reinvested dividends, as the coronavirus outbreak and measures to contain it rocked global markets. But equities were less volatile in April, with the S&P 500 jumping almost 13% -- its best month since 1987.

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Neiman Goes Bankrupt, Idled by Virus and Crushed by Debt

Brief: Neiman Marcus Group Inc. filed for bankruptcy after efforts to manage its crushing debt load unraveled amid the spreading coronavirus pandemic. Creditors will take control of the luxury department store chain, according to plans outlined in a Chapter 11 petition filed in Houston. The move gives the Dallas-based chain a break by letting it stay in business while management works out a recovery plan. The company, led by Chief Executive Officer Geoffroy van Raemdonck, said it has support from a substantial majority of its creditors, who agreed to put up $675 million to get Neiman Marcus through the court process. They’ll also provide $750 million in exit financing. When the company emerges from bankruptcy in early autumn, management expects to see about $4 billion cut from its existing debt load -- the legacy of a 2013 leveraged buyout by current owners Ares Management Corp. and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. Neiman listed debt obligations of about $5.5 billion in its filing.

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Paul Tudor Jones Reportedly Buys Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge, Compares Crypto to 70s Gold Trade

Brief: Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones is reportedly buying bitcoin as an inflation hedge as central banks around the globe print money to relieve coronavirus-battered economies.Jones, one of Wall Street’s most-successful and seasoned hedge fund managers, revealed in a message that one of his funds holds a low single-digit percentage infutures on the cryptocurrency, Bloomberg Newsreported. He compared it to the gold trade in the 1970s, according to the report. Bitcoin futures trading on the CME jumped 5% on Thursday. Jones, founder and chief executive at Tudor Investment Corp., told CNBC in March thathe thought the stock market could be higher by Juneif coronavirus cases began to peak. The investor said at the time that he expected stocks to endure a choppy April but that, ultimately, equities would again climb.

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JPMorgan Mulls Shrinking Office due to Coronavirus Crisis

Brief: JPMorgan could join the ranks of big investment banks shrinking their office space as its investment banking boss predicts a portion of its staff may continue to work from home after the coronavirus crisis. Daniel Pinto, who runs JPMorgan's corporate and investment bank, told Citigroup analysts that he could "envision a scenario" where employees continue to work from home on a rotational basis, according to a note seen by Financial News, as the coronavirus looks set to permanently impact how large financial services organisations work. Pinto suggested that such a move would fall in line with the bank's sustainability targets "as well as reducing square footage" of its office space. He cautioned that the bank would need new methods of measuring employees productivity in such a scenario. Around 90% of JPMorgan's corporate and investment bank employees are currently working from home - compared to a firmwide figure of 75% - and the experience could change the way the bank does business, the note said.

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Home Working Conduct During Lockdown is now a Concern for Financial Services, says KPMG Vice Chair

Brief: Conduct issues created by home working with a flatmate who works for a competitor firm has become such a worry for financial services firms that employees' living conditions could be scrutinised in the future,  according to KPMG’s vice chair for financial services Kay Swinburne. Swinburne made the comments about conduct issues emerging as a result of homeworking during the coronavirus lockdown, at the City Week Covid-19 Operational resilience for financial institutions webinar series on May 5. “We’re also finding some very strange ones where you suddenly realise there are people sharing houses in a way that normally wouldn’t cause difficulty,” Swinburne said. “If you have several young investment bankers sharing a house in Chelsea it’s a problem when they’re trading portfolios they shouldn’t have knowledge of.”

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Coronavirus: Goldman Sachs in Talks to Buy Invesco Holdings

Brief: Goldman Sachs is in talks to buy a big portfolio of company stakes being sold by the asset manager Invesco in a race to shift illiquid holdings whose value has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Sky News can reveal that a unit of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) is closing in on a deal to acquire the positions, which include a holding in Oxford Nanopore, a gene sequencing specialist. City sources said that an agreement to buy the private company stakes, which are nominally valued at hundreds of millions of pounds, could be finalised within weeks. One added that a team within GSAM which manages private equity portfolios was leading the transaction at the Wall Street giant.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Wednesday May 6, 2020:

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced Wednesday the initial plans to ease the country out of its lockdown will start this coming Monday. The prime minister will make a televised address on Sunday with more details on what the first steps will look like. Johnson also announced his government’s new goal to conduct 200,000 tests a day by the end of May after meeting its goal of 100,000 tests at the end of last month.

  • In the United States, the government coronavirus task force went from being phased out by the end of the month, to being continued “indefinitely” in the span of a 24-hour period. The confusion began on Tuesday when Vice President Mike Pence said they were phasing out the health-focused panel in favour of a group focused on reopening the economy. President Donald Trump then noted on Wednesday the task force would instead adopt a new focus on vaccines and is considering naming a person who will lead the way on treatment and vaccine efforts. CNN is reporting by this weekend, 43 states will be in some form of reopening.

  • In Canada, British Columbia Premier John Horgan will be the latest province to outline their plans of what a new normal will look like as they ease some of their restrictions. The country has 62,000+ coronavirus cases, with 4,100+ deaths. British Columbia accounts for 2,232 of the known cases, along with 121 deaths.

  • A Financial Times article is reporting German Chancellor Angela Merkel is having some issues having leaders of its 16 federal states moving in lockstep as they try to determine their next move. Merkel had a conference with its country’s regional leaders on Wednesday aimed at having a coordinated exit from the lockdown.  An “emergency brake” was created, allowing restrictions to be reintroduced if the pandemic flares up again. However, some regional leaders have already decided to go it alone, opening restaurants and hotels this month without waiting instruction from Berlin.

  • Spain’s parliament voted in favour of a two-week lockdown extension. The vote continues giving the government sweeping powers to rule by decree and set limitations on citizens mobility throughout the country if they choose to do so. This is the fourth two-week extension parliament has allowed. The country has started easing its lockdown restrictions and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez argued the state of alert is a tool to be used right now as a shield against the pandemic.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

BlackRock’s Fink Delivers Grim Outlook With Tax Hikes for Corporate America

Brief: BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink had a stark message for a private audience: As bad as things have been for corporate America in recent weeks, they’re likely to get worse. Mass bankruptcies, empty planes, cautious consumers and an increase in the corporate tax rate to as high as 29% were part of a vision Fink sketched out on a call this week. The message from the leader of the world’s biggest asset manager contrasts with the ebullient tones of a stock market that has snapped back from recent lows. Even among Wall Street luminaries, Fink speaks with particular clout. He has been advising President Donald Trump on how to navigate the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. And BlackRock is playing a key role in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize markets, helping the central bank buy billions of dollars in assets.

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Bank Bosses Urge Regulatory Pass Through the Covid-19 Crisis

Brief: City grandee Lord Blackwell has called for leniency from the UK's regulators as financial services workers navigate the "great pressure" of the Covid-19 crisis. Lord Blackwell, the chairman of Lloyds Banking Group, said staff at the UK lender "are having to make many decisions under great pressure every day": "My... ask of regulators is to recognise that, under this pressure, some of our colleagues, while trying their hardest, may not get every detail of the compliance requirements right and to be tolerant of some errors so long as bank staff are genuinely trying to do the right thing," he said, during a session of the City Week Covid-19 Webinar series on May 6. His comments come as UK banks facecalls to speed up lending to businessesunder the UK government's various coronavirus business interruption schemes, introduced to help companies weather the coronavirus crisis.

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Volatility Clobbered These Hedge Funds – and More Shocks Mean Some May go Under

Brief: The wild swings in market volatility has been a blessing for many hedge funds this year. But for others, it's been a curse. The Cboe Volatility index, the fear tracker known as the Vix, has more than halved in the six weeks since it hit an all-time high on 16 March. Long-volatility funds have reaped big rewards — the Cboe Eurekahedge Long Volatility Hedge Fund Index returned about 40% in the first three months of 2020. Yet systematic volatility-focused hedge funds, which theoretically should be profiting at times like these, have instead endured performance meltdowns. In March, 9 out of the 38 volatility and options funds ranked in Société Générale’s Nelson Report, published last week, posted declines. Losers include Chicago-based hedge fund Wolverine Asset Management. Named after the fictional co-leader of the X-Men superhero team in Marvel Comics, Wolverine has lately more resembled Dr. Doom. The firm's volatility-focused Wolverine Intrinsic Fund was down 13.7% in March and 12% in the first quarter, according to the Nelson Report.

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Natixis Joins French Equities with $140 Million Hit

Brief: Natixis SA joined its French peers in taking a hit from equities trading as market turmoil and dividend cancellations following the outbreak of the coronavirus forced it to mark down assets. Equities trading revenue was more than erased by a 130 million-euro ($140 million) writedown when companies started to pull their dividends, contributing to a 204 million-euro net loss for the first quarter. Income from debt trading rose 46%, the bank said late Wednesday, beating peers BNP Paribas SA and Société Générale SA as well as the Wall Street average. The quarter ends a brief respite for Chief Executive Officer Francois Riahi, who had been trying to draw a line under a series of missteps since taking over in June 2018, including trading losses on Korean securities, a liquidity scare at its H2O Asset Management subsidiary and oversight problems. The bank put aside 193 million euros for credit losses, mainly to account for loans to oil and gas companies.

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Fiera Capital Limits Redemptions on $1.1 Billion Credit Fund

Brief: One of Canada’s biggest money managers is freezing redemptions in a large debt fund and warning that some borrowers may miss interest payments. Fiera Capital Corp. has called investors to inform them it has gated its Diversified Lending Fund, which has about C$1.5 billion ($1.1 billion) under management, according to people familiar with the situation. The fund is managed by chief investment officer Francois Bourdon and two others. The fund invests in the residential and commercial construction sector through limited partnerships (LPs) with various partners that specialize in lending solutions. The fund also puts money into partnerships that offer private loans to companies and other types of loans.

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Citadel Waiving Redemption Fees for Fund Clients Seeking Cash

Brief: Ken Griffin’s Citadel will allow investors to pull a total of $1 billion from its main hedge funds without incurring fees or penalties, a sign that clients are grappling with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The move, an exception from the firm’s usual practice, is aimed at providing relief to those invested in Citadel’s flagship Wellington and Kensington funds, according to an investor letter seen by Bloomberg. Such clients are primarily institutions like pension funds. Citadel manages about $30 billion. “In the wake of the unprecedented conditions created by the Covid-19 pandemic, we recognize that our investors may have different capital needs, both in size and timing, than originally anticipated at the beginning of the year,” according to the Citadel letter dated Monday. “In response to these potential demands, we are offering $1 billion of additional liquidity to investors in our multi-strategy funds on June 30, 2020 without being subject to any redemption fees or other restrictions.”

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday May 5, 2020:

  • In the United States, it’s a case of good news and bad news. First, the good news. The country saw its daily death toll stay around 1,000, the first time they have been around that number in a month as New York state, the country’s epicentre for the virus, has seen a decline in their numbers. Now the bad news: with many states easing restrictions, including California this Friday, multiple media reports are citing an influential coronavirus model that is predicting as many as 3,000 deaths a day in America by June 1st. California is the country’s largest state with close to 40 million people.

  • In Canada, Quebec Premier Francois Legault has pushed back its government’s plan to reopen its largest city from May 11th to May 18th. Stores in Montreal with entrances to outside streets were going to be permitted to open on May 11th, but the city’s public health director has not seen a flattening of the curve yet. The island city had 350+ new cases and 45 deaths a couple of days ago. In total, Montreal has seen over 16,000 confirmed cases and over 1,400 deaths, most of those deaths are seniors in long-term care homes.

  • The United Kingdom now have the grim distinction of having the most deaths due to COVID-19 in Europe, surpassing Italy. Government figures have coronavirus related deaths in the UK at 29,427 while Italy’s latest official figure is 29,316. Secretary of State Dominic Raab tried to downplay the latest numbers saying, “I don’t think you can make the international comparisons you are making at this stage – at least, I don’t think you can make them reliably.”

  • Doctors at a Paris hospital are saying they’ve found evidence of a patient being admitted in December who was infected with COVID-19. The patient was first diagnosed with pneumonia on December 27th when they actually had coronavirus, which was discovered after a recent retest of the swab taken at the time. The first official reports of the coronavirus in France were reported on January 24th, 2020 from two people who had a history of travel to Wuhan, China.

  • Similar news is circulating in Sweden with their chief epidemiologist telling local media they could have had their first case in November or December. The country’s first official case wasn’t noted until January with a woman returning from a trip to Wuhan.

  • The Philippines telecommunications body has ordered the country’s leading broadcaster, ABS-CBN Corp. to cease operations on Tuesday. President Rodrigo Duterte has repeatedly threatened to block the renewal of the station’s license after the broadcaster refused to air his campaign commercials during the 2016 presidential election. Government opposition lawmakers have noted the decision Is poorly timed with the country in the midst of a pandemic and the media playing an important role to inform the public.

  • Australian and New Zealand government officials are in meetings to establish a COVID-safe travel zone between the two countries, which would allow residents to travel freely between the two nations without a need to quarantine. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison invited New Zealand Prime Minster Jacinda Ardern to join a national cabinet meeting. This marked the first time a New Zealand head of state had attended an Australian national cabinet meeting, or similar gathering since World War II. Both countries are in fairly good shape in regards to the coronavirus. New Zealand hadn’t reported any new cases in the past two days, while Australia recorded only 14 news cases between Sunday and Monday.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Goldman Sachs CEO: Return to Work Will be Gradual

Brief: Goldman Sachs Group Inc is working on a strategy to gradually return staff to working in offices worldwide, the bank’s chief executive told staff on Tuesday in an internal memo viewed by Reuters. Goldman Sachs staff in Hong Kong, mainland China, Sweden and Israel have already started returning to work in phases, according to the memo, which was verified by a Goldman spokeswoman. “However, in certain cities, such as New York and London, it will take longer before we start to slowly increase the number of people in our offices,” stated the memo, which was signed by Chief Executive Officer David Solomon, President John Waldron and Chief Financial Officer Stephen Scherr. 

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Virus Lockdown Takes Toll on Frazzled Compliance Teams

Brief: The thought of a single banker spilling company secrets on a personal phone is a compliance worker’s worst nightmare. The Covid-19 lockdown and the sudden surge in makeshift home-working setups has multiplied those fears by hundreds of thousands. The coronavirus outbreak is taking its toll on the City’s compliance workers tasked with tracking the behaviour of employees scattered throughout the UK. The crisis has placed huge pressure on already stretched financial services compliance teams to get the right systems and controls in place. And it’s reigniting old tensions with bankers in the front line. Financial News spoke with several senior compliance officers and traders. All asked to remain anonymous to avoid a backlash from their colleagues or regulators.

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Victoria’s Secret Partnership with Sycamore Partners Implodes after Coronavirus

Brief: Sycamore Partners was all set to acquire a majority stake in Victoria's Secret. For the lingerie brand's parent company L Brands, it was all part of the plan to spin off one of its most recognizable properties.But now, after a global pandemic and a lawsuit filing, the deal with Sycamore has officially fallen apart, according to a statement retail holding company L Brands sent out Monday In a statement sent to Business Insider, L Brands announced that it had come to a "mutual agreement" with Sycamore to "terminate" the company's previously agreed-upon sale of Victoria's Secret. Private equity firm Sycamore Partners had previously been interested in acquiring a 55% stake in the apparel and lingerie brand for $525 million. The private equity firm valued Victoria's Secret at $1.1 billion in February.

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ESG Has Been a Win for Stocks, Not so Much for Bonds Amid Covid-19

Brief: The market convulsions caused by the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to halt its spread might offer some answers to one of fund managers’ biggest questions: What’s the affect on financial performance of investing in companies that make a positive contribution to society and the environment? Allianz Global Investors, which oversees about $615 billion for clients, offered some insights with an analysis of how its sustainable and responsible investment mutual funds performed. The asset manager reviewed the “downturn resilience” of its funds and found that the vast majority of its sustainable strategies outperformed broad market benchmarks in the first quarter. In the past decade, fund managers who consider environmental, social and governance issues alongside regular financial metrics have gone from outliers to the mainstream with more than $30 trillion of assets now managed using a broad definition of the ESG approach.

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Hong Kong’s Exchange Fund Sees Record $11 Billion Quarterly Loss

Brief: Hong Kong’s wealth fund suffered a HK$86.1 billion ($11 billion) loss in the first quarter, its biggest ever, as stocks tumbled globally. The Exchange Fund, managed in its current form by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority since 1998, lost HK$111.5 billion on its portfolio of domestic and foreign stocks, while bonds gained HK$54.4 billion in the quarter, according to a presentation by HKMA Deputy Chief Executive Howard Lee to lawmakers Monday. The HK$4 trillion fund acts as a backstop to ensure the stability of Hong Kong’s currency and as a stabilizer in times of crisis. It joins other funds around the world in posting losses at the start of the year as markets tumbled due to the coronavirus outbreak. The MSCI global stock index slumped 22% in the first three months of the year. The fund clawed back some losses in April, seeing gains of about HK$30 billion to HK$40 billion, according to Lee.

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Ultra-Rich Families With Cash on Hand Pile Into Private Debt

Brief: Michel Andre Heller is looking to lend when credit is tight. The London-based real estate adviser to a billionaire family from the Middle East is lining up deals of as much as 5 million pounds ($6.2 million) for U.K. residential developments and more than double that amount alongside other investors for bigger properties, such as hotels or offices. The private debt market “is more than trickling along for us,” Heller said. “From a family office perspective, you don’t want to take on too much risk, but you still want to deploy capital.” As the coronavirus upends financial markets, family offices with money to spend are boosting private debt and credit holdings to take advantage of cheaper valuations and avoid the volatility of stock markets. Meanwhile, central banks are keeping economies afloat with cheap-money policies and negative yields, making assets that used to preserve and grow family fortunes less effective.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Monday May 4, 2020:

  • In the United States, the aviation industry was taking repeated hard hits on Monday. America’s Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said during a Fox Business Network appearance that it was “too early to tell” if international travel would open up before the end of the year. The comment raises concerns the US travel ban outside of the country could stay in place for a considerable length of time. The second hit came from one of the richest men in the world. Warren Buffett exited his investments in Delta, United, American Airlines and Southwest. Buffett told his investors during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting he believes the airline business will be transformed in a major way due to the pandemic. Finally, aviation maker General Electric will cut 10,000+ aeronautical jobs, or 25% of its workforce spanning from Ohio to Europe.

  • As the number of worldwide coronavirus cases are now over 3.5 million, Canada’s health minister is urging a cautious reopening as provinces in the country continue to slowly reopen its businesses and public spaces. Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are the latest provinces that are easing their COVID-19 related restrictions on Monday. Canada has exceeded 60,000 coronavirus cases.

  • With the United Kingdom indicating their lowest death total from the virus in a month, some government officials are turning their attention to where the coronavirus first started. In a radio interview, the country’s defence minister Ben Wallace said China has questions to answer on how quickly they made the rest of world aware of the extent of the coronavirus. The UK join the United States and Australia who have been vocal in the past about China’s role in the spread of the virus. However, Wallace also noted the post-mortem on China’s response will have to come after the pandemic is under control and it should be in everyone’s interest to be as transparent as possible.

  • Italy received some well-deserved good news on Monday as citizens were allowed to visit relatives for the first time in a long time. The country is emerging from its nine-week lockdown, the longest coronavirus related lockdown in the world. Four million construction workers are allowed to return to work on Monday and restaurants were allowed to reopen for takeaway service. Italy has suffered close to 29,000 deaths, the most in Europe.

  • Russia is emerging as one of the world’s new hotspots as the country reported back-to-back days of 10,000+ infections. The country’s total is over 145,000 with close to 1,400 deaths.

  • A number of countries ranging from Canada, France, Saudi Arabia and China have pledged €7.5 billion to a global effort in fighting the coronavirus. One country absent from the list is the United States who seem intent on going their own way in fighting the coronavirus. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is hopeful America will change its mind and join the global cause.

  • The Philippines have barred all passenger flights for one week as of Sunday to help contain the spread of the coronavirus and help reduce pressure on quarantine facilities that are housing thousands of Filipino repatriates. For instance, a media report notes 20,000 repatriated citizens are undergoing mandatory quarantine in Manila. Philippine airlines had already extended domestic and international flight suspensions to mid-May.

  • Japan has extended its state of emergency until May 31st. Prime Minster Shinzo Abe first made the declaration on April 7th for six specific regions, before extending it to the rest of the country shortly thereafter. The country’s state of emergency measures are lax though compared to other parts of the world. Officials can’t compel citizens to comply and there are no punishments for failure to do so. A media report notes only 13% of Japanese employees are working from home during the pandemic as the country’s traditional work culture seems to be taking precedence over the pandemic.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Hedge Fund Stock Exposure is the Highest in at Least Three Years

Brief: Hedge funds have seen their net stock exposures jump to the highest in at least three years in a spate of short covering and bullish bets on cyclical companies. U.S. long-short funds have assumed a more risk-on posture amid the $4.6 trillion trough-to-peak rally across some of the industries most exposed to the coronavirus fallout, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. The data through April 30 sheds light on how professional speculators are tip-toeing back into the likes of financials and industrials which have been trading at multi-year discounts. Now, violent rotations between riskier equities and defensive names could inject fresh pain on this breed of stock picker. The S&P 500 is heading for a three-session slump led by cyclical sectors following a barrage of poor data and renewed U.S.-China tensions. Fund managers are grappling with “the opposing pulls of deteriorating fundamentals set against Fed-inspired optimism,” said Mark Connors, global head of risk advisory at Credit Suisse, in a report dated Friday.

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Private Equity Firms Expect to Restart Deploying Capital in Three to Six Months, says Survey

Brief: Most private equity firms are currently concerned about restructuring costs and re-engineering their portfolios impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, however a new survey suggests deal activity can restart in three months’ time. Nearly 90% of buyout groups said they expect to deploy capital in the next three to six months, responding to a survey by consultancy firm New Street Group. But for now they are working on shoring up their holdings’ balance sheets. More than 70% of respondents to New Street said they plan on investing into their existing portfolio. Meanwhile, a failure to source funding and increasing pressure to meet operating expenses is expected to lead to a rise in demand for specialists. New Street said it is likely that firms will look to bring on chief restructuring officers and other CFOs who can restructure companies.

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Wall Street sees the Economic Pain, opts to Look Past it

Brief: Is Wall Street blind? The global economy is in shambles, the coronavirus pandemic has killed more than 237,000 worldwide and 30 million Americans have lost their jobs as collateral damage in the fight against COVID-19, with the tallies all rising by the day. Yet, the U.S stock market just rocketed to its best month in a generation. While it’s most definitely wild, Wall Street is also a collection of investors who are continually looking ahead, setting prices for stocks at the moment based on where they expect corporate profits and the economy will be a quarter or two into the future. From February into late March, investors sent the S&P 500 down by nearly 34%, anticipating that the number of jobless workers would explode and the economy would tumble into recession. Then in April, as gruesome economic figures confirmed those fears, investors instead focused on a few strands of optimism for the future.

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Investors Realigning Their Focus

Brief: Asset owners and money managers are adapting their engagement efforts as the workers and suppliers of their portfolio companies feel the impact of the coronavirus crisis. Investors said they have refocused their engagement activities to ensure that executives at their portfolio companies are protecting the health and the safety of workers and are not, for example, keeping non-essential employees at retail, office or even mining sites unnecessarily.  Investors added they are putting pressure on top executives to continue to employ workers and honor existing contracts by paying for goods already produced to keep smaller suppliers in business. Some asset owners are working with portfolio company executives to help them access governmental loans and subsidies for workers who have been furloughed.

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Chicago Equity Partners to Shutter, Return Capital

Brief: Chicago Equity Partnersis closing and returning assets to its institutional clientele. The active manager is in the process of winding down the firm's operations, although a timetable for the firm's closure has not been set, said Daniel Gagnier, a spokesman for the firm. Chicago Equity Partners publicly announced the move in an April 17 update to its SEC ADV filing noting that "CEP has decided to wind up its operations, including liquidating all private funds. CEP has notified its clients of its decision and provided a description of the process." Affiliated Managers Group acquired a 60% stake in CEP in October of 2006. AMG spokesman Jonathan Freedman declined to comment.

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The Site-Visit Fetish

Brief: Unless you’re the Governor of Georgia, you know we are not going back to normal. But where are we going? If you’re an allocator, probably nowhere. Contrary to the beliefs of some right-wing ideologs, Covid-19 is highly contagious and is killing people. It will continue to kill people for some time.  I begin with the assumption that Boards of Trustees and sponsoring organizations recognize that a critical part of their fiduciary duty is to ensure the people to whom they have delegated the management and administration of their pool of beneficial assets are fully not dead. This means they must be healthy. Given the current pandemic and its long tail, I cannot imagine a Board or Trustees or sponsor permitting its CIO and investment staff to participate in non-essential external business meetings. 

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing forFriday May 1, 2020:

  • With the United States federal guidelines of social distancing expiring on April 30th, many states are moving towards a gradual reopening starting today. The largest state making a move on Friday is Texas with Governor Greg Abbott’s executive order superseding local orders. This will allow businesses like retail stores, malls, restaurants and theatres to reopen at a 25% capacity. Other states are allowing salons and gyms to open while some are easing restrictions on outdoor activities such as opening parks, and golf courses.

  • In Canada, Ontario Premier Doug Ford will allow some business to reopen on Monday May 4th as long as they meet strict public health measures. Those business allowed to reopen include garden centres and nurseries, lawn care and landscaping, essential construction projects, and golf courses can open for maintenance, but not for the public. Nova Scotia is also following similar easing of restrictions, allowing for parks and trails to reopen, as well as other outdoor activities to resume such as fishing. Elsewhere, Tiff Macklem will inherit the unenviable job of playing a lead role in leading the country out of the economic crisis the coronavirus created. Macklem was named the new Bank of Canada head and will replace Stephen Poloz as his term ends June 2nd.

  • Matt Hancock, the United Kingdom’s Health Secretary announced during a Friday news conference the government hit its goal of 100,000 coronavirus tests by the end of the month, stating 122,347 tests were deployed on Thursday, the last day of April. The government had pledged to hit the 100,000 test per day milestone earlier in the month when they were criticized their testing abilities were not comparing with other countries such as Germany.

  • A third of France is currently in a “red category” zone, which means they would not be released from their lockdown if this is still the case once May 11th arrives.

  • India said on Friday they would extend its nationwide lockdown for another two weeks after May 4th. However, the government would allow for “considerable relaxations” in lower risk districts that are colour coded as outlined in their plan to fight the virus. India’s health ministry said the country has just over 35,000 cases and close to 1,150 deaths due to the coronavirus.

  • Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said his government will consider relaxing coronavirus-related mobility restrictions next Friday. Growth in new infections have slowed to less than 0.5% per day in the country as compared to 25% at its peak a month ago.

  • Ending the week on a positive note with the story of UK Captain Tom Moore. The war veteran turned 100 on Thursday and Mr. Moore had a goal of raising £1,000 for the NHS Charities Together. Moore gained worldwide attention as he walked laps in his garden for the cause. His touching story filled a school hall with 120,000 birthday cards, including happy birthday messages from the Queen of England and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. As for Moore’s goal of £1,000 for the charity; he did slightly better with the fundraising currently topping £32 million! 

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Trump Weighs China Stock Ban for $50 Billion of Federal Savings

Brief: President Donald Trump is exploring blocking a government retirement fund from investing in Chinese equities considered a national security risk, a person familiar with the internal deliberations said. The Thrift Savings Plan -- the federal government’s retirement savings fund -- is scheduled to transfer roughly $50 billion of its international fund to mirror an MSCI All Country World Index, which captures emerging markets, including China. The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board overseeing the fund made a decision in 2017 that the money should be moved by mid-2020. Opponents of the transfer in recent weeks have engaged in a last-minute effort to stop it.

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Apollo, Employees Face $1 Billion in Clawbacks on Rout

Brief: Apollo Global Management Inc. faces the prospect of having to hand back earlier profits from several of its funds as its holdings were hit hard by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The firm, together with some current and former employees and partners, were potentially on the hook to give back $965.4 million in profit taken as of the end of March, New York-based Apollo said Friday. Apollo is the first major alternative asset manager to suggest it may have to pay back profits, known as clawbacks -- a possible harbinger for an industry that’s thrived over the past decade. Many of its biggest bets have been on economic bellwethers such as the travel, energy and retail sectors that have been devastated by the outbreak.

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Think Wall Street’s Back to Normal? Not so Fast, Options Markets Say

Brief: Options investors are preparing for more volatility ahead despite last month’s sharp rebound in U.S. stocks, reflecting doubts that markets will be quick to return to their former highs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. Market turbulence has plunged alongside stocks' climb since late March, with the Cboe Volatility Index , known as "Wall Street's fear gauge," last at 37.19 on Friday after peaking above 80 in mid-March. The S&P 500.SPXrose 12.7% in April, its biggest monthly percentage gain since 1987, and has climbed more than 27% from its March 23 closing low.In another bullish sign, the front end of the S&P 500 volatility term structure, which plots volatility expectations over time, is no longer inverted, suggesting that worries over a near-term stock reversal are subsiding.

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“Very Negative” Stance Powered Pershing Square Gains – But Ackman Does not See Protracted Slump

Brief: Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman’s “very negative view” and “good sense of timing” powered the firm’s stellar USD2.6 billion gain last month but the high-profile activist hedge fund manager does not fear a protracted 1930s-style depression as a result of the Covid-19 shutdown. Pershing Square Capital generated the remarkable return in March with a USD27 million credit hedge as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic sent global markets into a tailspin. In a podcast interview released this week, Ackman explained how growing concerns over the Covid-19 spread early in the year, and the subsequent economic implications of the US shutdown, formed the basis of his lucrative bet.

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Leaked UBS Document Offers Road Map for How City may Return to the Office

Brief: A UBS consulting unit's advice to clients on returning to work gives an eye-opening road map for how the new normal in City working life might play out. A 13-page document put together by UBS's Capital and Consulting services division, seen by Financial News, recommends that firms come back to work in phases, prioritising key employees over others. Top of the list are traders, which are in the “highest operational risk category”, it said. While UBS's unit advises hedge funds, it lays out a model for returning to work in the wake of the pandemic that could be applied to any financial services organisation. Traders, portfolio managers and analysts should be brought back into the office during what the document describes as "risk level two", when new cases of Covid-19 have been trending down for two weeks, schools re-open or some lockdown restrictions are lifted.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Thursday April 30, 2020:

  • In the United States, almost one in five Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the last six weeks. The Department of Labor released their latest numbers with 3.8 million Americans filing benefits claims in the last week, which brings the overall total to 30.3 million. The 30+ million represents 18.6 of the country’s labor force. CNN is reporting 31 of America’s 50 states will look to partially reopen over the next few days.

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in a news briefing on Thursday that the government would release their plan to lead the country out of lockdown sometime next week. Johnson also confirmed the country was past its peak of the coronavirus outbreak but cautioned he would not risk the prospects of the country by easing restrictions too early and causing a second peak. The United Kingdom have over 171,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and close to 27,000 deaths.

  • Canada’s parliamentary budget officer announced the federal deficit for the year could be over $250 billion due to the coronavirus. The Liberal government has spent $146 billion to combat the coronavirus so far. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended the spending in a media briefing on Thursday saying the investments need to be made now to ensure an economic recovery as quickly as possible.

  • The European Union (EU) economy shrank by 3.5% in the first quarter of 2020, the worst quarterly drop since the EU started collecting data since 1995. In a move to counter the drastic decline, the European Central Bank (ECB) said it would lend money at minus one per cent to banks and launched a fresh round of unconditional repurchase operations to pump liquidity into the financial system.

  • Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has tested positive for the coronavirus. Mishustin proposed that his deputy Andrey Belousov become acting Prime Minister as he undergoes self-isolation rules. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree appointing Belousov as acting Prime Minister.

  • Bloomberg is reporting one in five cases of coronavirus infections in the Philippines are either doctors or nurses. The country’s health care system has been overwhelmed due to the virus with a backlog in testing happening in mid-April because more than 40 staff in their main laboratory became infected. As of Wednesday, the confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the Philippines had risen to more than 8,000.

  • The BBC is reporting on Japan’s bizarre response to the coronavirus pandemic. The country is not in a lockdown and very little testing has been completed. The report takes Tokyo as an example. The city of 9 million people has tested less than 11,000 since February with just over 4,000 of those testing positive. The official guidelines for doctors say they should only recommend a test if the patient has pneumonia. The few rules the country does have in place, such as a stay-at-home order, people seem to be ignoring. Wednesday marked the first day of the Golden Week holidays that run through May 5th in the country. Many people continue to dine out, picnic in parks and crowd grocery stores with little regard for social distancing.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Multi-Asset Fund Fulcrum ‘Taking on More Risk than Normal’ to Ride Virus Volatility

Brief: Fulcrum Asset Management, the multi-asset £5bn investment manager co-founded by former Goldman Sachs partners Gavyn Davies and Andrew Stevens, is reaping gains from riding the coronavirus-driven market turbulence. Fulcrum's flagship Diversified Absolute Return fund was up 7.5% until 20 April, according to a person familiar with the situation. While much of that gain came off the spike in volatility in March, Fulcrum CIO Suhail Shaikh told Financial News it capitalised on active "tailwind" hedging choices which included so-called dispersion strategies, or capitalising on differences in volatility between an index and index component stocks. The fund is also trading in gold and currencies.

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Amundi Suffers ‘Crisis-Related’ Outflows During First Quarter

Brief: Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, said its assets under management dropped by more than 7% during the first three months of the year due to onset of volatile markets prompted by the Covid-19 pandemic. According to its 30 April first quarter results, assets under management at the Paris-headquartered fund manager fell to €1.53tn at the end of March, down from €1.65tn at the end of last year — a drop which Amundi attributed to “a significant negative market effect at the end of March”. Outflows were heaviest across Amundi's institutional and corporate clients, which pulled a net €15.4bn during the quarter in what chief executive Yves Perrier called “crisis-related outflows”.  However, more than €12bn of new money coming from retail clients and Amundi’s joint ventures helped limit total net outflows across the group to €3.2bn between January and the end of March.

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Billionaire Sells More Lansdown Stock to ‘Spread the Risk’

Brief: Stephen Lansdown is paring his stake in Hargreaves Lansdown Plc, the financial firm he co-founded with fellow British billionaire Peter Hargreaves, to support other investments and give him the flexibility to pursue new ones. “Markets are defying a little bit of gravity at the moment, so I thought if I could see the opportunity to take some off it the table I would -- to spread the risk,” Lansdown, 67, said in a phone interview, referring to the sharp rebound in equities from their March lows. “We’re not out of the woods yet and won’t be for a long time, and you need to keep your powder dry to support what you’ve got and to take advantage of opportunities. It’s all about positioning.” A Guernsey-based company that Lansdown controls sold 160 million pounds ($202 million) of shares of Hargreaves Lansdown in an accelerated offering through Barclays Plc, according to terms seen by Bloomberg. He has sold more than $550 million of stock over the past five years, leaving him with a 7% stake worth about $600 million.

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Goldman Sachs Shareholders Back Executive Pay Packages

Brief: Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) said on Thursday that 71% of shareholders voted to approve the bank’s executive pay packages, according to preliminary tallies. The vote, taken at the bank’s annual shareholder meeting, is significant, as it comes after the influential proxy adviser Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommended investors cast their votes against the pay of top bank leaders earlier this month. Early in the meeting, which was conducted by conference call online, bank director M. Michele Burns defended the board’s reasoning for executive compensation. The board awarded Chief Executive David Solomon $24.7 million for 2019, a 19.4% raise over his total 2018 pay.

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Carlyle Group Reports a Loss, Withdraws Forecasts

Brief: The coronavirus pandemic has hit theCarlyle Grouphard. It reported a first-quarter net loss of $612 million, or $1.76 a share.Carlyle (ticker: CG) reported a profit of $137 million, or $1.18 diluted earnings per share, a year earlier.The Washington, D.C., firm said it posted a loss in revenue of $745.7 million for the period ended in March. In the first quarter of 2019, Carlyle reported nearly $1.1 billion in revenue.The global investment firm declared a quarterly dividend of 25 cents per share. Assets under management were $217 billion, a 3% drop from the fourth quarter and 2% decrease from the same period in 2019. Fee-earning AUM slid 1% to $158 billion, driven by a 6% drop in real assets, which include real estate and natural resources. 

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Abu Dhabi Shelves Sale of $2bn Private Equity Book due to Coronavirus

Brief: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) is delaying the sale of $2bn in private-equity fund stakes after the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus. The sovereign wealth fund, which is estimated to have about $580bn under management, was in talks with several investors including money manager Ardian about selling chunks of the portfolio, according to people familiar with the discussions. The market turmoil triggered by the crisis made it difficult for them to agree on how much the stakes were worth, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. ADIA plans to restart the sales process in the second half of the year, one of the people said. Spokespeople for ADIA and Ardian declined to comment.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Wednesday April 29, 2020:

  • The United States economy shrank 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020, its worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis. America’s personal consumption rate dropped even lower to 7.6%; its lowest mark since 1980.

  • Canada now has over 3,000 deaths due to the coronavirus with over 51,000 cases reported. However, it isn’t all bad news for the country. Manitoba was the latest province to release its plans on restarting some sectors of the economy, which will begin as early as May 4th. Canada’s chief public health officer also noted the number of cases in the country is doubling every 16 days. This is much better than the three days it took for the numbers to double in the early stages of the epidemic.

  • The United Kingdom’s updated death toll numbers now has the country sitting only behind the United States and Italy. The total released on Wednesday has just over 26,000 dying from the virus, which now includes those who have passed away in nursing homes and the wider community. Prior to this number, only hospital deaths were being reported. The government also noted just over 52,000 tests were completed on Tuesday with the capacity to test just above 73,000 per day. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government had proposed a goal earlier in the month that the UK would be at 100,000 tests per day by the end of April.

  • With restaurants and cafes being engrained in European culture, Switzerland announced on Wednesday they would be the first European nation to see what the new normal will look like. As of May 11th, restaurants and cafes will be permitted to open. However, guests in those venues will be limited to two per table, and the table must be two metres apart. Shops, museums and libraries will also be allowed to reopen on May 11th.

  • India will allow millions of migrant workers to return home if they wish as the country prepares to ease its six-week lockdown. Migrant workers were stranded in cities and industrial areas, far from their hometowns when the lockdown order was quickly moved in place. Stranded migrants must show no symptoms of illness before being permitted to leave.

  • As the number of deaths in Brazil surpass 5,000 from the coronavirus, President Jair Bolsonaro continues to make life difficult for himself after reporters questioned him about the spike in the death toll. Bolsonaro responded, "So what? I'm sorry, but what do you want me to do?" He added even though his middle name is “Messias,” which translates to Messiah in English, he’s not “a miracle worker.” Bolsonaro’s attempt to walk back the comments were also not smooth saying, “I’m sorry for the situation we are currently living with due to the virus. We express our solidarity to those who have lost loved ones, many of whom were elderly. But that’s life, it could be me tomorrow.” According to a recent poll, 38% of Brazilians think Bolsonaro is doing a “terrible” job as opposed to 33% who think he is doing a “good” job.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Sachem Named ‘King of the Activists’ in New Study on Performance

Brief: When Sachem Head Capital Management enters a new position, the stock normally doubles in two years. That was the largest return among 10 major activist investors, The Edge Consulting Group, a special situations research firm, told clients this week. A disastrous outlook for 2020 earnings is likely to put increased emphasis on value investing, said The Edge Chief Executive Officer Jim Osman… The study, entitled “King of the Activists,” tracked 15 years of shareholder campaigns by investors including Starboard Value LP, Blue Harbour Group LP and Icahn Enterprises LP, which respectively finished second, third and fourth in the rankings, behind Sachem.

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JPMorgan Asset Sees Strong Era for Private Equity, Hedge Funds

Brief: The current difficult market environment will create fertile ground for private equity and hedge funds to boost their performance, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. Expected returns for cap-weighted private equity have risen to 9.80%, up 1 percentage point from the last forecasts issued Sept. 30, John Bilton, head of global multi-asset strategy, wrote in a note. The money manager’s projections “continue to be relatively aggressive for both hedge funds and private equity,” he said, and the pandemic-induced market volatility “actually reinforces our conviction that there is a good medium-term outlook for alpha generation.” “Dry powder on private equity balance sheets can be deployed now at lower entry multiples, broadly offsetting higher debt funding costs,” Bilton wrote.

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COVID-19 has ‘Changed Everything’, RBS Chairman says

Brief: Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) chairman Howard Davies said on Wednesday the coronavirus pandemic had “changed everything” and its impact on society and the economy would likely be “stark and long-lasting”.In comments to investors at the bank’s annual investor meeting — held virtually to comply with social distancing rules — Davies said the sharp fall in the bank’s share price during the crisis made it unlikely the government would sell further stock in the state-backed bank soon.Chief Executive Alison Rose said the bank was doing everything possible to support its customers, many of whom were facing — and would continue to face — extremely challenging circumstances.

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Covid-19 Poses Challenges for Diversification, says AllianzGI’s Thies

Brief: The Covid-19 crisis has highlighted the challenges of diversification, which is not an exact science, according to Allianz Global Investors’ Manuela Thies. Thies, who is head of multi asset active allocation retail at the asset manager, said the current scenario doesn’t need to become a special case for going into non-traditional areas, as investors should always be looking to expand and complement their holdings. ‘The use of diversifying asset classes like alternatives in portfolios for risk mitigation purposes should be a permanent goal,’ Thies said in emailed comments sent to Citywire Selector.

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AustralianSuper Reports 85,000 Early Withdrawal Requests

Brief: AustralianSuper has received "85,000 requests from members seeking early release of their retirement savings," the Melbourne-based industry superannuation fund said Tuesday. The initial tally — a week after Australians could begin applying for an initial A$10,000 drawdown of their retirement savings to help them through the COVID-19 crisis — represents over A$650 million ($413.2 million) in savings, a news release said. AustralianSuper said it had already distributed "over A$319 million to almost 40,000 members so far." The super fund reported A$180 billion in retirement assets at the start of February — before a spreading coronavirus battered markets globally. Shawn Blackmore, the fund's group executive for service and advice, in the news release said AustralianSuper wants to "help members who are in immediate financial need under the Federal Government's Early Access to superannuation program" but emphasized that withdrawals would come at a cost.

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BlackRock to Close European Abs Return Equity Fund

Brief: BlackRock is set to close one of its absolute return equity funds, Citywire Selectorhas learned. The fund, formally known as the BSF European Diversified Equity Absolute Return, was managed by Robert Fisher andSimon Weinberger. A spokesperson for the firm has confirmed to Citywire Selector that the fund will officially close on 2 June 2020. The BSF European Diversified Equity Absolute Return fund had €5m in assets under management in March and was originally launched in August 2010. Commenting on the liquidation, a BlackRock spokesperson said: ‘We recently completed a review of the BSF European Diversified Equity Absolute Return Fund as part of our continual evaluation process to ensure our range remains relevant. Taking into account its current size and potential client demand, we have decided to close it.’

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday April 28, 2020:

  • United States President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order and use the Defense Protection Act to ensure order meat-processing plants remain open. The order will affect many processing plants supplying beef, chicken, eggs and pork. In recent weeks, American meat producers have been hit with mass coronavirus outbreaks at their plants, which has caused a stalemate between the owners wanting to keep running and labour unions wanting more protection. President Trump’s order will declare the plants critical infrastructure and the government will look to provide workers with protective gear.

  • In Canada, the province of Quebec rolled out more plans for reopening their province on Tuesday. Premier Francois Legault announced stores that aren’t in shopping malls, construction, civil engineering and manufacturing businesses will be allowed to reopen in May. The Premier stressed reopening certain parts of the economy doesn’t mean physical distancing measures will be dropped.

  • The United Kingdom have called on the technical director of the National Cyber Security Centre to advise the government on how to secure the National Health Service’s (NHS) contact tracing app. Once the UK’s lockdown restrictions eventually ease, the tracing app will be used to inform people whether they have been in contact with someone with coronavirus and advise quarantine guidelines for those at risk. Privacy advocates have raised concerns over the idea the government using the app to collect other sensitive health data on its citizens.

  • France’s Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has outlined the country’s plans to ease lockdown restrictions as of May 11th. Businesses will be allowed to reopen, except for restaurants, cafes and other large meeting areas such as museums and cinemas. Public transit will be restored to 70% of its normal services with businesses encouraged to stagger working hours to avoid overcrowding and encourage working from home wherever possible. Finally, schools will be allowed to reopen progressively, starting with nurseries and primary schools, with a limit of 15 children per class. The lockdown being lifted on May 11th for France will depend on new daily cases dropping below 3,000. If not, the lockdown will continue.

  • Spain plans to transition out of its coronavirus lockdown in four stages that will hopefully take place over the next two months. Speaking to the nation on Tuesday, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez noted the timeline will depend on if the virus flares up again and will vary by province. Prime Minister Sanchez said mainland Spain would enter the first phase of transition on May 11th with hotels and restaurants operating at 30% capacity.

  • Brazil seems to be buckling under the pressure of the coronavirus and may be emerging as the world’s next hot spot. Medical officials in Rio de Janeiro and at least four other major cities in the country have warned their medical systems are on the verge of collapse. It doesn’t help matters that President Jair Bolsonaro recently fired his health minister and replaced him with an advocate that is on his side for reopening the economy. Almost all Brazilian states have stay-at-home measures in place, some extending until mid-May.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Blackstone says Coronavirus Crisis Could Derail NIBC Deal

Brief: Private equity firm Blackstone said on Tuesday its proposed 1.36 billion euro ($1.47 billion) takeover of NIBC Holding NV might not win regulatory approval, sending shares in the Dutch bank 12% lower. “There is substantial uncertainty concerning the business plan and it continuing to be a realistic basis for obtaining regulatory clearance,” Blackstone said. “The relevant regulators have not yet given any indication of their views in this respect.” NIBC shares traded down 12% at 0900 GMT in Amsterdam. Blackstone also warned that NIBC’s decision to postpone its dividend payments meant it could no longer guarantee the financing of the deal. NIBC this month decided to postpone dividend payments at least until the second half of the year, as European banks came under pressure to improve their capital positions to be able to weather losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

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A 3.6 Billion Manager Dumps Risk on Bet Crisis is Getting Worse

Brief: The investment chief of Veritas Pension Insurance Co. says he doesn’t understand why there are glimmers of hope in equity markets, as he sells stocks and buys government bonds to protect his portfolio. “There is a lot of optimism at the moment in the equity market that the crisis will soon be over, but I don’t believe it will,” said Kari Vatanen, who oversees 3.3 billion euros ($3.6 billion) as chief investment officer of Veritas in Finland. “In the real economy, we are going to see data getting worse, week after week.” Vatanen, who spoke after delivering first-quarter results that showed a 10% loss due to the rout triggered by Covid-19, says he’s been busy cutting risk in his portfolio since he started last month.

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HSBC sees Mounting Credit Losses After Pandemic Halves First-Quarter Profit

Brief: HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA.L) on Tuesday warned of more earnings pain ahead after first-quarter profit nearly halved as it set aside a hefty $3 billion in bad loan provisions due to the coronavirus pandemic. Europe’s biggest bank said the outbreak would mean sustained pressure on its revenues as customer activity declined and lower interest rates squeezed margins, while noting increased fraudulent activity could lead to “potentially significant” credit losses. The bleak outlook, shared by many lenders reporting earnings this season, underscored the scale of the problems facing the sector as it grapples with corporate borrowers in crisis, plunging stock and oil prices, as well as low interest rates. HSBC’s new Chief Executive Officer Noel Quinn faces additional hurdles as plans to cut costs through layoffs - part of a wider restructuring unveiled in February - have been put on hold due to the pandemic.

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Wealth Revamp Helps UBS to 40% Net Profit Rise in First Quarter

Brief: The world’s largest wealth manager, UBS (UBSG.S), reported a 40% rise in quarterly profit on Tuesday, with its core business enjoying its best three months since 2008, thanks to a restructure and rich clients reshuffling portfolios to respond to the coronavirus outbreak. The bank booked net profit of $1.595 billion, slightly ahead of its previous guidance of around $1.5 billion. It reported strong operating growth across all but one of its business divisions, even after accounting for the risk of increased defaults resulting from the virus. “This quarter, I can comfortably say, you saw UBS at its best,” Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti said on a call to analysts and journalists, sounding a confident note on the bank’s preparedness as it braces for headwinds from a fall in asset valuations, sinking interest rates and a slowdown from bumper client activity levels.

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Investors Should Brace for a ‘Great Repression’ That Will Make Past Downturns Look Tame, Economist says

Brief: The economic aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was so tepid it was referred to as the “Great Recession”. In the wake of the coronavirus catastrophe, investors need to brace for the “Great Repression”, which may be even uglier than the downturn of a decade ago. That is the takeaway from an analysis out on 27 April from economist David Rosenberg. Rosenberg is often considered a “perma-bear”, but that is not entirely fair. He has had his optimistic spurts. This just isn’t one of them. In the “base case” for the US economy, published by his firm, Rosenberg Research, the economy “reopens” in May, in a staggered approach across industries and regions. There are “periodic setbacks in terms of COVID-19 case counts…sufficient to make people less comfortable and confident about spending then they did prior to the crisis. A vaccine is not developed in this forecast, but treatment that alleviates the worst respiratory symptoms” is developed within the next six months, he writes.

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MFS Closes Energy Fund After Assets Drop to $2M

Brief: MFS Investment Management has closed its global energy fund after assets dropped to around $2m with limited prospect of further growth, Citywire Selector has learned.The specialist fund, which was formally called theMFS Meridian Funds – Global Energyfund, was overseen by James Neale. It was officially liquidated on 15 April 2020. MFS IM wrote to investors at the end of February about its plans to close the fund when it had around $6.8m in assets under management. It originally launched the strategy as a Luxembourg-domiciled fund in February 2009. In a short statement toCitywire Selector, a spokesperson for MFS IM said: ‘As MFS does not believe the fund will grow to a viable size, we believe that liquidation best serves the interests of Funds shareholders. The liquidation took place on the 15 April 2020.’

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.