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Covid-19 Diligence Briefing

Our briefing for Tuesday June 29, 2021:

  • According to a report from the Financial Times (FT), talks between the United States and United Kingdom regarding a travel corridor between the two countries are increasingly unlikely to reach a conclusion by the end of July. Citing officials familiar with the talks, the FT reported the added rise of the Delta variant in Britain, the complexities of the United States political system and uncertainty over the AstraZeneca vaccine in America, where it is not yet approved, are all reasons for the talks to extend into August and even September. Earlier this month, United States President Joe Biden and United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson met during the G7 Summit where the discussion of opening the transatlantic corridor was discussed.
  • In Canada, a new report from the Royal Society of Canada is noting the number of Canadians that died because of the COVID-19 pandemic could be likely double of what is shown in official numbers. The disturbing report, which looked at excess deaths, suggests that largely racialized communities and essential workers were the demographics that took the brunt of the unreported COVID-19 deaths – often dying at home. Using the numbers from the study, instead of 26,000 deaths due to the pandemic as reported, it could be as many as 52,000. Canadians were led to believe most of the deaths occurred primarily in long-term care homes, which may have distracted from other communities also in need.
  • In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has echoed the sentiment of his new health minister, telling Cabinet that he is “increasingly confident” that Britain can fully reopen on July 19th and that citizens will learn to “live with” the COVID-19 virus. Prime Minister Johnson told his colleagues that the latest data was looking good and that although cases were continuing to rise because of the Delta variant, the number of hospitalizations and deaths were not rising at the same pace. According to the latest numbers, 84% of adults have at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. New Health Secretary Sajid Javid issued an upbeat assessment of prospects for opening the economy on July 19th in his first statement in the Commons.
  • The European Union (EU) is having a hard time coming to a consensus on travel restrictions, especially when it comes to the UK and Delta variant. Portugal and Spain are the latest countries to either impose a quarantine or ask UK residents to show proof of full vaccination or a negative PCR test. Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel, often seen as the leader of the 27 member EU bloc of nations, has suggested the entire EU should coordinate closely and be more cautious about allowing entry to travelers from external countries. Germany already has a ban on most travel from the UK, which it describes as a “variant area of concern.”
  • In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the capital city of Abu Dhabi will restrict entry to public spaces and schools to people who have been vaccinated. As of August 20th, people who wish to access universities, schools, nurseries, gyms and shopping centres in Abu Dhabi must have been inoculated with a COVID-19 shot. The decision won’t apply to those exempt from taking a vaccine and to children aged 15 and under. Abu Dhabi officials made the move after noting on social media that 93% of target groups have been vaccinated.
  • Japan is asking Olympic athletes from India and five other countries hit hard by the Delta variant to agree to daily virus tests for seven days before leaving for the Games. Currently, all overseas athletes are being asked to have coronavirus tests twice during a four-day period before they arrive in Tokyo. Two members of Uganda’s team tested positive last week upon arriving in Japan, heightening concerns about the spread of infections during the Olympic Games. Japanese Olympic Committee president Yasuhiro Yamashita has already conceded there was “no way” to ensure zero coronavirus cases among teams arriving for the Tokyo Games, set to begin July 23rd.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Top Executives Freed From Quarantine in England

Brief : Senior executives who have traveled to England can temporarily leave quarantine if their work is likely to bring major benefits to the U.K. economy, the government announced on Tuesday. The exemption from isolation rules for newly arrived travelers applies to multinational executives who are visiting British branches of their firms. Critics of the decision questioned why it wasn’t also extended to smaller businesses. Top executives of foreign companies can also be released from the quarantine requirement if they are looking to make an investment in a British business or set up a new company in the U.K, the government said. “Many other countries have introduced similar exemptions and it’s important the U.K. public don’t lose out on prospective major investment,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman Max Blain said on Tuesday. “This is about making limited exemptions when people can prove they are looking to make significant major investments.” The Telegraph newspaper reported last week that JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon skipped visiting England on a recent trip to Europe due to quarantine restrictions.

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Bridgepoint Seeks $2.8 Billion Value in Rare Buyout Firm IPO

Brief: Bridgepoint Group, the buyout firm spun out of Royal Bank of Scotland Group in 2000, will go public in one of the biggest listings of a U.K. private equity firm in decades. The firm plans to raise about 300 million pounds ($416 million) and list at least a quarter of its shares, according to a statement Tuesday. The offering, which is expected to value the company at about 2 billion pounds, will also include the sale of about 200 million pounds from existing holders, said a person familiar with the matter. The buyout firm, which focuses on middle-market companies across Europe and owns stakes in Burger King franchises in the U.K. and a motorbike racing business, is seizing on an ebullient stock market that Bridgepoint’s own chairman said earlier this year was showing signs of being near a top. Unlike the U.S., where firms like Blackstone Group Inc. and KKR & Co. went public more than a decade ago, British buyout groups have tended to remain small private partnerships still dominated by their founders or immediate successors. Closely held firms have been grappling with how to provide exits for founders, while also ensuring rising stars can monetize their stakes.

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Moderna Jumps to All-Time High as Delta Variant Fear Deepens

Brief: Moderna Inc. climbed to a record high amid growing concern about a more contagious variant of Covid-19 in nations including India, which cleared the import of its vaccine. The shares rose as much as 6.9% to $238.40, breaking through the prior intraday record set earlier this month. Trading volume was about 1.2 times the 10-day average as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. Moderna said its vaccine produced protective antibodies against the delta variant, which emerged in India and has been spreading throughout the world. India’s drug regulator approved the import of the shots for restricted emergency use on Tuesday. The world’s second most-populous country trails richer nations with a little more than 4% of the population fully vaccinated, compared with almost half in the U.S. Some analysts had expressed concern about Moderna’s recent surge, which has pushed the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company’s market value past $95 billion. Moderna continues to be driven by momentum, and today’s study results are “clearly showing good coverage of variants with their vaccine,” Michael Yee at Jefferies said in an email.

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European Equity Commissions Surge on Pandemic Volatility and Renaissance of Active Strategies, says Bloomberg

Brief : Market volatility caused by the pandemic is set to increase European equity commissions by 19 per cent from 2019, after five years of decline, according to the latest European Institutional Equity Trading Report published Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). The report is based on data from 87 European institutional equity head, and senior traders. Equity commissions are anticipated to increase by 8.8 per cent in 2021 to GBP2.3 billion after climbing 9.2 per cent in 2020. According to the study, a majority (53 per cent) of traders believe that their overall commission payments will rise this year, and more than two-thirds forecast improvements in trading volumes. The Bloomberg Intelligence report notes that, if predictions come true, 2021 will be the second year in a row to see brokerage commissions improve following a decline of a third in 2015-19. Currently, the average blended commission rate is at 3.46 basis points. This period saw a shift from active management strategies to more quantitative and passive strategies put pressure on turnover and fees and a switch to less expensive trading channels. Survey respondents view algorithms as the most important broker service, followed by high and low touch services.

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Private Equity Invests in Record 566 CEE Companies in 2020

Brief: Private equity firms invested in a record 566 companies in Central and Eastern Europe in 2020, as the industry supported dynamic SMEs and start-ups that will fuel the recovery from the impact of Covid-19 and underpin long-term economic and social development across the region. Invest Europe, the association representing Europe’s private equity, venture capital and infrastructure sectors, as well as their investors, today released its 2020 Central and Eastern Europe Private Equity Statistics. The report shows that the number of companies receiving private equity investment increased by 15 per cent on the previous year’s record and beat the five-year average by 46 per cent. Venture capital was the driving force for company investments in 2020 as firms backed 474 start-ups and scale-ups with total investment of EUR358 million – just 4 per cent below the all-time high achieved in 2019. Overall private equity investment slipped to EUR1.7 billion in 2020, mainly due to the absence of large buyout transactions involving equity commitments exceeding EUR300 million during the period. Poland was the leading destination with a quarter of the region’s total investment value (ER431 million)  and home to almost a fifth of the companies receiving funding.

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Real Estate Tech is Bouncing Back From its Pandemic Slump

Brief: The pandemic had a tumultuous effect on the real estate industry. On the one hand, offices stood empty, hotel occupancy rates plummeted and construction was halted for many months. At the same time, demand for residential housing intensified as people were looking for more space to work and study. As a result, 2020 global VC deal flow into commercial real estate technologies fell nearly 80% compared with 2019. Meanwhile, venture investment into residential real estate tech dropped by less than 10% in that time, according to PitchBook data. As pandemic-related shutdowns are phasing out, both segments are seeing renewed interest from venture capitalists. Roughly six months through the year, VC deal activity in residential real estate tech has already reached an annual record of $6.2 billion, according to PitchBook data through June 18. And with $2.6 billion in funding, the commercial segment is on track to make 2021 the second-most valuable year for venture activity. Unlike in previous years, when the buzziest companies in the sector served commercial clients, much of the venture dollars are going to startups focused on disrupting the scorching-hot residential market.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Monday June 28, 2021:

  • In the United States, as plan “A” for President Joe Biden’s administration and its vaccination goal for July 4th were thrown off-stride, they are now moving onto plan “B”. The Associated Press is reporting the Biden administration is sending its A-list officials across the country, devising advertisements for niche markets and enlisting community organizers to persuade unvaccinated people to get the COVID-19 shot. The focus is on what health officials call the “moveable middle” – a group of about 55 million Americans – most under the age of 30. “We’re not just going to do the mass vaccination sites,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. “It’s door to door. It’s mobile clinics. We’re doing vaccinations at church, the PTA meeting, the barber shop, the grocery store.” It’s unclear how well the administration’s plan “B” is working with vaccination rates now dropping below one million a day and no sign yet of a turnaround.

  • In Canada, Ontario is claiming to set a new North American record for most vaccinations at a single site in one day. Over the weekend, health officials set-up shop at Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena – home normally to professional sports teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors – to administer doses of Pfizer and Moderna. According to the facility’s owner – Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment Ltd (MLSE)– 26,771 COVID-19 shots were administered on Sunday. MLSE said the previous record for a single day in North America was thought to be more than 17,000 shots at The Texas Motor Speedway back in April. Canada’s vaccination rate got off to a slow start compared to its southern neighbours with only 3% of residents fully vaccinated by the middle of May. However, vaccinations have picked up steadily and government officials hope to have 75% of Canada’s population fully vaccinated by late July or August.

  • In the United Kingdom – Health Secretary Matt Hancock stepped down from his position over the weekend in a way British tabloids would even have a hard time making up. Hancock quit on Saturday after it was revealed he was caught breaking COVID-19 rules by kissing and embracing an aide in his office. The move enraged colleagues and the public who have been living under lockdown and is the latest scandal to rock the Boris Johnson government – which has seen many – since the pandemic began in March 2020. On Friday, The Sun newspaper published photos of Hancock embracing a woman who he had appointed to a taxpayer-funded role to scrutinize his department. “Those of us who make the rules have got to stick them and that’s why I’ve got to resign,” said Hancock via a video message on Twitter.

  • In a race against the Delta variant, Germany is expecting drugmaker Moderna to deliver its COVID-19 vaccines faster than expected over the coming months. Speaking over the weekend, German health minister Jens Spahn said the supply of vaccines will soon outstrip demand, which will allow it to offer shots to passers-by in city centres and places of worship. Moderna will increase its deliveries to 1.33 million doses a week from July; up from the 733,000 previously expected, raising the figure to 2.57 million in August and 2.95 million a week in September. Germany has 53% of its population with a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 35% are fully vaccinated.

  • The United Arab Emirates (UAE) have confirmed most of the new coronavirus infections in the Arab state are from the more infectious variants. UAE, with a population of about nine million, had one of the world’s fastest vaccination campaigns, but cases have risen to more than 2,000 new infections a day and over the weekend, suffered its highest single-day death toll since March. The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) said the increase in deaths was due to the Beta variant, first discovered in South Africa and the Delta variant, first discovered in India.

  • Australia’s health authorities are claiming the country is in its most dangerous stage since the pandemic earliest days because of several COVID-19 clusters now circulating. Sydney to the east and Darwin in the north were in lockdowns on Monday. Perth in the west has made masks compulsory for three days and warned a lockdown could follow after a resident tested positive after visiting Sydney a week ago. Meanwhile Brisbane and Canberra have or will soon make wearing masks compulsory. Australia has had to depend on fast and harsh lockdowns to contain clusters of cases as the nation’s coronavirus vaccine rollout has been slow with only 5% of the population fully vaccinated. Sydney’s two-week lockdown began on Monday.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

KKR Dealmakers Pause for Breath After $60 Billion Pandemic Binge

Brief : A relentless global deal binge totaling nearly $60 billion has KKR & Co.’s leadership taking stock -- and a breather. When the pandemic hit, shortly after Philipp Freise and Mattia Caprioli took over new roles in Europe, the buyout house started deploying as much capital as possible while most rivals held back. More than a third of the total was spent in Europe, and KKR started working on a new fund dedicated to the region just a year after closing the last one. The breakneck pace of deals took its toll. KKR is now echoing the gentler tone adopted by investment banks like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. after employees balked at the work-till-you-drop culture. The biggest challenge to high performance in the buyout industry is “constant exhaustion,” Freise, 47, said in an interview. “As new-generation leaders, our job is to really temper,” said the German dealmaker, who’s co-head of KKR’s European private equity business with Caprioli. “It is almost like conducting an orchestra where the whole thing has gone into ‘Ride of the Valkyries’ -- we have to slow down a little bit to protect the human element from crashing.” The unusually open tone by leaders in the cutthroat buyout industry comes as workplace cultures come under increasing scrutiny and employers seek ways to retain a younger generation of workers.

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EU’s Economic Guardians Are Split on Post-Pandemic Strategy

Brief: The European Union’s top economic policy makers are exposing a gulf in their views on how to run the economy after the pandemic. European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Monday that monetary officials should retain the “unconventional flexibility” they granted themselves during the crisis, keeping borrowing costs low until government spending helps push up inflation. Hours later, his policy-making colleagues Jens Weidmann and Robert Holzmann said the ECB’s emergency powers are temporary and must end once the emergency is over. Panetta also said the ECB should consider retaining the flexibility ingrained in its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) pandemic emergency bond-buying program when it expires. An older quantitative-easing program is tied to limits on how much of a country’s bonds can be bought.

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Global Economic and Earnings Growth is Approaching its Peak. Now What?

Brief: The global economy has recovered from the pandemic sooner than most expected, with diversified investors benefiting from financial markets. But with growth now expected to be at its peak, U.S. asset managers, in particular, must now grapple with new concerns surrounding interest rates, inflation, and valuations. According to Nuveen’s mid-year outlook released Monday, “a booming economy brings with it new opportunities — and risks.” While asset growth improved from 2020, yields are still “frustratingly” low, which means returns may be fewer and far between in the second half of 2021. Moving into the second half of the year, the asset manager recommended clients consider differentiating between short- and long-term inflation risks and diversifying income and asset classes. “Both the level of output and its first derivative (growth) remain quite strong. It’s the second derivative — the change in the rate of growth — that has started to fall, presenting a challenge for investors and policymakers alike (not to mention those charged with making economic forecasts),” the report stated.

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Asset Managers Mull Upgraded US Inflation Expectations

Brief : Asset managers are weighing the impact of upgraded inflation expectations on financial markets, as the Federal Reserve moves up its timeline for interest rate hikes and bond tapering. An array of buoyant economic data from the US resulted in the Federal Reserve upgrading its inflation expectations and moving up its timeline for raising interest rates, with the first hikes now expected in 2023.  The Federal Reserve now predicts that inflation will climb to 3.4 per cent this year. This is a marked shift in tone from the FOMC’s meeting in March, which projected 2.4 per cent yearly inflation, and no rise in interest rates until 2024.  Earlier this month, Russell Investments found that 70 per cent of fixed income managers expect inflation in the next year will exceed 2 per cent. Meanwhile, average allocations to bonds are currently at a three-year low, according to Bank of America’s fund manager survey in June. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.55 per cent on Friday, twelve basis points higher than the end of last week. BlackRock Investment Institute sees the Federal Reserve’s new guidance as “more balanced”, with two interest rate hikes projected for 2023. “We view this upgrade as the Fed catching up with the restart dynamics.” 

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Should Real Estate Equities Investors Be Worried About Inflation?

Brief: Inflation, having been off the menu for so long, now seems to be the hottest of topics. How worried should investors be given recent inflation fuelled market wobbles and how can they protect themselves if it does become a problem in reality? One answer could be found in real assets, which generally benefit by economic growth that causes inflation.  Certain types of real assets, like property and infrastructure, can also rise in price when their input costs rise, as the replacement cost of building similar buildings or structures rises. However, for most investors infrastructure or commodity investments can be too niche or volatile, and the liquidity mismatch of direct property funds throws up additional risk. As such many investors look to REITs (real estate investment trusts) or funds of REITs for long term capital appreciation, a robust income stream and inflation protection, as rental incomes general include inflation uplifts. Most investors would invest in REITs that focus on commercial property, but more specialist REITs and residential REITs are available.

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Property Investors Eye South America Haven in Return-to-Work Bet

Brief: A group of Uruguay’s top real estate investors is planning to raise $165 million to wager that demand for office space is about to take off as foreigners flock to the nation known as the Switzerland of South America. Investors including architect Ernesto Kimelman and construction executive Eduardo Campiglia are seeking to sell hybrid securities through a real estate trust, Fideicomiso Financiero Platinum. The cash raised through the sale will go toward building two office towers and a 98-unit apartment building expected to house locals and newcomers to the nation of 3.5 million people. “We’re in the middle of a region that unfortunately has lots of issues. There are problems in Chile, in Argentina, in Peru. Things aren’t good in Brazil,” Kimelman said in an interview. “That probably means many companies or independent workers view Uruguay as a place” to do business. Wedged between Argentina and Brazil, Uruguay has leveraged its economic and political stability to persuade companies like chemicals producer BASF SE and oil-trading giant Trafigura Group to open local offices. The government is also offering generous tax breaks to attract skilled immigrants, and revive investment and the broader economy.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Wednesday June 23, 2021:

  • In the United States, the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is showing the faster spreading Delta variant is gaining a foothold in the country. Speaking at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit on Wednesday, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said the variant first discovered in India now accounts for a fifth of recent coronavirus cases in America. Several weeks ago, the Delta variant accounted for just 3% of new cases and not surprisingly appears to be growing faster in states and counties with lower vaccination rates than in areas that have higher levels. Despite the latest data, Walensky did note coronavirus cases are at their lowest levels since March 2020.

  • In Canada, the Atlantic bubble was supposed to take shape again on Wednesday, but Nova Scotia appears to have tried to pop it before it even begins. Less than 24 hours when the citizens of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador believed they were going to be able to travel freely throughout the four provinces free of quarantine, Nova Scotia Premier Iain Rankin announced those coming from New Brunswick would have to continue to self-isolate upon arrival. The reason given by Premier Rankin was that New Brunswick opened its borders to Canadian travellers outside the Atlantic region without the requirement of self-isolating; provided they have at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Needless to say, this isn’t going over well with most citizens in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick as protestors are currently occupying the land border between the two provinces and say they aren’t leaving until police force them to, or Premier Rankin changes his mind on self-isolation, whichever comes first.
  • The United Kingdom is seeing a worrying trend: the faster spreading Delta variant is apparently mutating. Public Health England (PHE) have notified Downing Street officials that at least 41 cases have now been identified in the last week in England of what is now being called the Delta plus variant. The new variant is also being reported in India. The discovery now has British scientists racing to discover whether current COVID-19 vaccines can combat the variant of the disease. What has health experts concerned are three trends in the Delta plus variant: increased transmissibility; stronger binding in receptors of lung cells and potential reduction in monoclonal antibody response.
  • Bloomberg is reporting Italy is laying down the economic gauntlet to Germany noting euro-area fiscal rules can’t return to how they were before the pandemic. Speaking in Parliament on Wednesday, Italian Premier Mario Draghi said he has been saying for three years that things need to be changed and the discussion is just the beginning. During the pandemic, the budget rules, with limits on debt and deficits, were suspended to allow emergency spending. In Germany, Armin Laschet, the front runner to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel later this year said recently that stability policies will have to reinstated when the effects of the pandemic on the global economy are over. The EU is currently split with Germany and other northern nations preaching balanced budgets with Italy and other nations in the south, countering that spending will fuel faster growth which can in turn, reduce debt burdens.
  • In Latin America, a development bank is trying to help countries secure COVID-19 vaccines and deploy around $500 million USD to fight the pandemic. Based out of Washington D.C., the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is in talks with Argentina and Panama, along with vaccine makers to provide credit for purchases of about $50 million to $100 million for each country. If so, Argentina and Panama would be the first two countries to use an initiative rolled out by IDB in March to help resolve legal liability obligations in contract negotiations with vaccine makers. The bank has already supported Argentina, Belize, Ecuador and Trinidad and Tobago with advances to buy vaccines from the World Health Organization led-COVAX initiative for shots for low- and middle-income countries. 
  • New Zealand is on high alert after a COVID-19 passenger from Australia entered the country and was positive for the virus. The infectious traveler arrived over the weekend and has caused the country’s capital city – Wellington – to ask their people who were at more than a dozen locations to self-isolate for two weeks and get tested. So far, there were no immediate cases confirmed because of the travel, but New Zealand is taking no chances and have taken a zero-tolerance approach to the virus and continues to pursue an elimination strategy. New Zealand – the small island nation of five million – have enjoyed nearly four months without any community transmission of the coronavirus.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Big US Banks to Employees: Return to the Office Vaccinated

Brief : Wall Street's big investment banks are sending a message to their employees this summer: Get back into the office and bring your vaccination card. New York-based Morgan Stanley said this week that all employees will be required to attest to their vaccination status. Those who are not vaccinated will be required to work remotely, which could potentially put their jobs at risk, since the bank's top executives have said they want everyone back in the office by September. “If you can go into a restaurant in New York City, you can come into the office,” said Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman at an industry conference earlier this month. Morgan Stanley is one of several big banks requiring employees to return to the office and also provide documentation of having received a coronavirus vaccine or making a formal declaration confirming vaccination. Goldman Sachs required most of its employees to return to the office on June 14, with some exceptions extending that deadline to Sept. 30. It requires every employee to state their vaccine status, but does not require proof. JPMorgan is asking employees to submit their vaccination records as well, in the form of an internal portal. The return-to-office push has its roots in banking-industry culture.

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Brookfield, Tishman Bet Billions on Workers Returning to Office

Brief: The pandemic has created a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity for investors willing to bet on the long-term prospects of workers returning to the hearts of global cities. That’s the view of real estate titans including Tishman Speyer Properties President Rob Speyer and Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Chief Executive Officer Bruce Flatt, who have invested billions snapping up discounted offices and other commercial buildings since the start of the pandemic. “There are extraordinary opportunistic things to buy in major cities around the world,” Speyer said during a panel at the Qatar Economic Forum Wednesday. “We have been active during Covid in Paris, in Washington D.C., in San Francisco, in London and people are just selling off real estate at 25%, 30%, 40% discounts.” Even as others fret about the future demand for workspace, Tishman has spent about $12 billion since March last year on deals it expects “to be some of the best investments we have ever made,” Speyer said. “If you have a long-term view of things reverting anywhere near where they were pre-Covid, these are generational buying opportunities.”

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Brevan Howard Shuts Main Fund to New Cash as Fortunes Improve

Brief: Brevan Howard Asset Management has stopped accepting new cash into its two biggest multi-manager funds after the firm’s record year of performance swelled the money pools. Assets in the Brevan Howard Master Fund, its main strategy, have more than doubled since the start of last year to more than $7 billion, and the money manager wants to control the size to maintain returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The firm has also closed the Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies Master Fund to new investment for similar reasons, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. The move marks a change of fortunes for the macro trading firm, which up until three years ago was fighting to stem an exodus of client money after several years of mediocre returns. Total assets had collapsed to about $6 billion from more than $40 billion in 2013. They have since risen to about $16 billion, one of the people said. A spokesman for the Jersey, Channel Islands-based investment firm declined to comment.

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Compliance Faced Rocky Start to 2021 as COVID Rolled On

Brief : COVID-19 remained a top concern for chief compliance officers in the first half of 2021 as they continued to confront the challenges of monitoring a remote work environment. In March, industry experts cautioned that compliance officers were stretched desperately thin amid the pandemic, a sentiment that was backed by industry research showing that compliance and legal teams were having trouble keeping pace with investigations and audits. The challenges felt no less daunting as President Joe Biden issued a series of orders and memos that outlined a stiffer regulatory agenda, beginning in January with his calls for "regulations that promote the public interest." Conservatives warned this could lead to "hyper-regulation."  Experts suggested compliance departments undertake a wholesale review of compliance policies and procedures to consider the new president's priorities, a recommendation that was renewed more recently as sweeping new anti-money-laundering rules edged closer to reality and Biden issued a memo signaling an even tougher U.S. stance on anti-corruption. Experts say there has been a perfect storm of challenges for compliance teams to juggle. And there's been no shortage of compliance news so far this year as companies seek to navigate a radically different risk and regulatory environment.

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Net Inflows of USD23.3bn in April put Hedge Fund Assets up Nearly 40 Per Cent Year-on-Year

Brief: Net Inflows of USD23.3 billion in April signaled a continued vote of investor confidence in the hedge fund industry. This result represented an increase in industry AUM of .6 per cent on the month and built momentum on the previous month’s USD19.1 billion increase in assets, according to the Barclay Fund Flow Indicator published by BarclayHedge. Industry trading profits exceeded USD55.5 billion in April and carried the industry’s aggregate AUM figure past the USD4.18 trillion mark. “In the midst of a brightening economic outlook across the globe, it might be easy to miss the fact that hedge funds have delivered four strong quarters in a row and through a pandemic, no less,” says Ben Crawford, Head of Research at Backstop BarclayHedge. “Yet when you put that fact into conversation with the stories about glowing economic forecasts, new equity market records and the arrival of an additional USD1.9 trillion in US stimulus — then you have a representative set of factors playing out.” The increase in net inflows was broad-based, with most fund sectors attracting new assets in April. The strongest activity was among Fixed Income hedge funds which reaped an estimated USD8.2 billion, followed closely by Multi-Strategy funds which added another USD7.1 billion.

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A Discerning View on EMD Opportunities

Brief: The benefits of diversification have been highlighted in the past 18 months and in this context, institutional investor appetite for emerging markets has increased. As they hunt for returns in a low interest environment and seek to take advantage of dislocations resulting from the Covid-19 turbulence, investors and asset managers have underscored the role an allocation to developing markets can play within portfolios. Although investment in emerging markets typically represents greater levels of risk, the opportunity identified is currently considered worthwhile, according to managers and institutional investors. “Conditions for emerging market debt outperformance in 2021 appear to be in place. First, a global backdrop of steady, extended monetary accommodation, prospects of a large-scale deployment of Covid-19 vaccines, and, to a lesser extent, expectations of fiscal stimulus in the US, should boost the growth-sensitive segments of the asset class,” wrote the Morgan Stanley global fixed income team in an outlook briefing. “Therefore, high yield credit, emerging market FX and local currency high-yielders should outperform investment grade, which has less of a valuation cushion, and is vulnerable to potentially steepening yield curves in our opinion.”

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday June 22, 2021:

  • In the United States, President Joe Biden’s administration is set to announce on Tuesday they will not be able to meet their latest COVID-19 vaccination goal for the country. President Biden had set the goal of having 70% of American adults with at least one shot of a COVID-19 vaccine by the July 4th holiday. According to their latest data, about 70% of all adults 30 or over have gotten their first dose, but White House COVID-19 coordinator Jeffery Zients will concede they have more work to do with 18–26-year-olds. The pace of vaccinations has fallen off steadily since April, dropping by about two-thirds, with approximately 1.1 million doses administered per day. At that rate, it would take another five months to have 75% of the American population vaccinated.

  • In Canada, a new poll seems to show Canadians are still on the side of the federal government and their cautious approach in reopening from the coronavirus pandemic. An online poll from Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies shows 69% of respondents say restrictions should remain in place as people continue to get vaccinated against the coronavirus. The poll also revealed the pandemic has not been good for Canadian’s health – both mentally and physically. The survey found 63% of respondents said their mental health has been bad since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, 36% have seen their level of exercise decreasing and 16% have consumed more alcohol. “Canadians, anyway seem to be opting for a more gradual, careful, prudent approach to getting out there and enjoying some of the things that they used to enjoy prior to the pandemic period,” said Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque.

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to be losing his patience on when “Freedom Day” can officially begin. The prime minister will announce on Monday whether all COVID-19 restrictions can be lifted in England on July 5th – two weeks earlier than the intended July 19th deadline. Between now and Monday, a government spokesperson said Prime Minister Johnson will pore over data including cases, hospitalizations and deaths to see if he can bring the date forward. The latest numbers don’t seem to suggest moving up the date should be in the cards with the number of patients in the hospital due to COVID-19 rising to its highest total since April and up 21% from the previous week.

  • Saudi Arabia has extended a loan deferral program for small businesses still coping with the coronavirus pandemic. The country has extended the plan by three months – taking it to the end of September. The deferred payment program has already impacted 167 billion riyals ($45 billion USD) of payments since it began in March 2020, according to the Saudi central bank. They added micro, small and medium-sized businesses benefiting from the program will be assessed to determine to what extent they’re still affected by the pandemic.

  • In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte is threatening jail to those who refuse to take a COVID-19 vaccine. “If you’re a person who’s not vaccinated and potential carrier, to protect the people, I have to sequester you in jail,” Duterte said on Monday. The president went on to add village leaders should keep a list of those who refuse to be vaccinated. Almost immediately, government officials were trying to downplay the president’s remarks. Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra said there is no law compelling citizens to get vaccinated and President Duterte spokesman Harry Roque added the leader’s remarks were meant to “emphasize what the state can do.”

  • Australia is having a hard time dealing with coronavirus flareups as the city of Sydney is now battling a fresh COVID-19 cluster after Melbourne’s recent outbreak. Monday night, 10 people were diagnosed with COVID-19 in Sydney, bringing the cluster that first emerged in the city’s Bondi Beach area last week to 21 cases. In response, the state government has reimposed mandatory mask-wearing in public transport and retail outlets across greater Sydney but hasn’t yet ordered a lockdown. Australia has administered close to 6.7 million COVID-19 inoculations to date for a population of 25 million, with only a small fraction of those receiving both jabs.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Fed’s Powell says High Inflation Temporary, will ‘Abate’

Brief : Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that he expects recent price spikes will soon subside and reduce inflation to a sustainable level.  Consumer prices jumped 5% in May compared with a year earlier, the largest increase in 13 years. But Powell said the increase mostly reflected temporary supply bottlenecks, and the fact that prices fell sharply last spring at the onset of the pandemic, which make inflation figures now, compared with a year ago, look much larger.  “As these transitory supply effects abate, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run goal,” he said in testimony prepared for a congressional oversight panel.  Powell’s comments come at a time that financial markets are struggling to interpret the Federal Reserve’s recent moves. Last week Fed officials signaled that they may increase the central bank’s benchmark interest rate twice in 2023, an earlier time frame than they set out in March, when no rate hike was expected until after that year. Powell also said the Fed had formally begun discussing when and how the central bank might reduce the current $120 billion a month of Treasury’s and mortgage-backed bonds that the Fed is purchasing each month. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term interest rates lower to encourage more borrowing and spending.

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Canadian Employees Want Workplace Flexibility to Continue Post-Pandemic, says Survey

Brief: An Ernst & Young survey has found that Canadian employees have embraced workplace flexibility and want it to continue post-pandemic. The 2021 Work Reimagined Employee Survey found that 93 per cent of respondents said they would likely remain with their organization for the next year or more if they have control over where and when they work. But 54 per cent would be willing to quit if flexibility on schedule and work location is not maintained. Even if top-notch, on-site office amenities are offered, two-thirds would prefer to control where and then they work with respondents being 1.4 times more likely to opt for having control over working hours. Some 61 per cent want their company to require vaccines before returning to physical workspaces. Nearly half say company culture has improved since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020. "Whether you know — and accept — it or not, your employees have been forever transformed, and walking back this sea of change isn't an option," says Darryl Wright, partner, People Advisory Services at EY Canada.

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GHO Capital Gathers Over £2bn for Europe’s Largest Ever Healthcare Fund

Brief: GHO Capital Partners has amassed the largest ever healthcare-focused private equity fund for a Europe-headquartered firm in a sign LPs are backing GPs in one of the most sought-after secular growth industries. The London-based healthcare specialist raised more than €2 billion in LP commitments for GHO Capital III, according to two sources with knowledge of the fundraise. The firm began raising capital for the vehicle six months ago with a €1.25 billion target. The launch was a little over one year after GHO raised €975 million for its oversubscribed sophomore vehicle. It is unclear what the hard-cap is for Fund III and the firm is understood to have not yet held the final close on the fund. Los Angeles County Employees’ Retirement Association committed €100 million to the vehicle, according to PEI data. Fund III is the biggest Europe-headquartered healthcare fund in history, knocking out ArchiMed’s MED Platform I, which collected €1 billion in August last year. Similar to prior funds, Fund III will back mid-market companies in Europe within healthcare subsectors pharmabio, medtech, outsourced services and patient services. It is unclear how much of Fund III has been deployed thus far.

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Market Volatility is Back as Covid and Fed Uncertainty hit Sentiment

Brief : Volatility is back for global stock markets, triggered by uncertainty over central banks’ plans for monetary policy and rising Covid-19 cases around the world. The VIX volatility index, a real-time measure of volatility expectations over the next 30 days, inched lower on Monday. Last week, the VIX spiked more than 16% to its highest point since May, as markets digested a surprisingly hawkish turn from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also logged its worst week since October, and futures contracts tied to the index initially fell more than 200 points in early premarket trade on Monday before reversing course to open higher. Monday’s choppy trade also played out in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 3.3% down, and Europe, where the continental Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.8% in early trade, only to recoup its losses and advance into positive territory. Matteo Andreetto, head of State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR ETF business in the EMEA region, told CNBC on Monday that with Covid cases rising, the potential for monetary tightening and high equity valuations on a historical basis, a market correction could be possible.

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CSA 2020/2021 Enforcement Report Highlights Commitment of Canadian Securities Regulators During Unprecedented Times

Brief: The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) today released its fiscal year 2020/2021 Enforcement Report, which provides details on enforcement efforts and outlines how securities regulators are protecting investors and the integrity of Canada’s capital markets… “This year’s Enforcement Report highlights how CSA members adapted quickly to evolving circumstances by introducing new ways of protecting investors, while staying ahead of emerging issues and trends,” said Louis Morisset, Chair of the CSA and President and CEO of the Autorité des marchés financiers. The report outlines how CSA members continued to strengthen their technical knowledge on critical and emerging topics, such as open-source intelligence and mobile forensics, and implement best practices and tools across the country to recognize and target fraudulent activity. The CSA also formally launched the Market Analysis Platform (MAP) in October 2020. MAP is a data repository and analytics system designed to help all CSA members identify and analyze market misconduct. The system has increased efficiency and speed in accessing and analyzing trading activity, which is critical as capital markets continue to evolve.

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Hedge Funds Held on to Pandemic Losers and Now it’s Paying Off

Brief: As the world went into lockdown last year, hedge funds stuck by the companies that suffered the most. It paid off. Some of the industry’s biggest names loaded up on companies that were pummeled as Covid-19 prompted government lockdowns and social-distancing guidelines, according to hedge fund consultant PivotalPath. They’re the hotels, casinos, cruise lines, restaurant chains and theme park companies that people are longing to frequent again as the pandemic recedes in the U.S. “Despite popular belief that hedge funds all made money shifting into tech and remote-environment stocks, most hedge funds actually made money because they stayed in the beaten-down names, or they ramped up those investments,” said PivotalPath Chief Executive Officer Jon Caplis. “They saw that a lot of the economy was going to come back.” While some funds bought up stocks that boomed as workers stayed at home -- like Zoom Video Communications Inc. and Peloton Interactive Inc. -- those wagers were on the margin, Caplis said. And, they were placed early in the pandemic -- even in February, before stocks plunged as major cities ground to a halt in March, he said. Those bets helped offset losses from the selloff. But once technology stocks jumped in April, hedge funds pivoted into the hammered “Social Distance Loser” stocks -- as Caplis calls them -- or increased their existing positions in them, he said.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Monday June 21, 2021:

  • In the United States, President Joe Biden’s administration announced on Monday their plan to release the remaining 55 million COVID-19 vaccines globally by the end of the month. Earlier in June, the White House had named the recipients of the first 25 million of the 80 million doses they planned to export as they took their first steps towards vaccine diplomacy. The remaining 55 million doses will be Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Pfizer, most of which will be J&J and Moderna. Approximately 41 million of the 55 million doses will be shared through the COVAX initiative while the remaining 14 million will be shared with regional priorities and other recipients. 

  • The Canadian government will loosen COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated people as of July 5th. In a statement on Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government said Canadian citizens and residents who’ve received two shots will be exempt from a 14-day quarantine on arrival to the country. Travelers will still need to show they’ve tested negative for COVID-19 before they arrive in Canada and take a second test at the border. Those travelling by air, who are currently expected to complete the first three days of their quarantine in a government approved hotel, will be exempt from that requirement. Speaking to CBC over the weekend, Public Safety Minister Bill Blair said a fuller reopening that allows tourist travel to resume won’t happen until 75% of Canadians are fully vaccinated.

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson said England is on course to be able to lift coronavirus restrictions as planned on July 19th, despite the spread of the Delta variant. Speaking to a television crew on Monday, Prime Minister Johnson said, “looking at where we are” and the effectiveness of vaccines against all the known variants, “I think it’s looking good for July 19 to be that terminus point.” The prime minister also tried to do some forecasting ahead noting even if domestic limits on social gatherings are soon eased, foreign travel is likely to continue to be disrupted, with delays and complications for travelers. Prime Minister Johnson stated the winter may be “rough” for many reasons with more pressure on the hospitals – noting he wouldn’t rule out the need for additional steps to protect the National Health Service if some new variant emerges.

  • Indian media are citing a healthcare director that the country may be hit by a third wave of COVID-19 sooner, rather than later. The Times of India reported on Sunday infections could start rising again in 12 to 16 weeks, citing Randeep Guleria, director at the state-run All India Institute of Medical Sciences. Guleria said the Delta variant, largely believed to be responsible for the country’s second wave just a few months ago, continues to pose a risk to a large section of the population that has not yet been vaccinated. India’s confirmed coronavirus cases have passed 29 million with the death toll around 380,000, however experts believe both numbers are vastly undercounted in a country of close to 1.4 billion people.

  • Hong Kong, home to one of the world’s toughest COVID-19 restrictions and border curbs, will be getting a break. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced on Monday the region will shorten mandatory hotel quarantine to seven days for fully vaccinated people travelling from all, but a handful of high-risk places. The shortening of hotel quarantine will begin on June 30th and other plans such as lifting capacity limits at some restaurants and swimming pools will be lifted as of Thursday. The initial shortening of hotel quarantine will apply to Hong Kong residents first, with non-residents eligible likely a month later if all continues to go well. Lam noted Monday was a symbolic day as it coincided with the region not experiencing any local coronavirus cases for two straight weeks. 

  • Bloomberg is reporting Brazil hit a grim milestone over the weekend, recording at least 500,000 deaths due to the coronavirus. Despite this saddening total, Brazilians are said to be very picky on which vaccine they wish to receive with Pfizer being the brand of choice. For instance, media is reporting in Sao Paulo, people are demanding the American company’s shots at public clinics and often walk out if none are available. In order to save time, some health care centers have put up signs saying “no Pfizer shots” to save time. The reluctance of Brazilians is only adding to the death toll, which is believed to be about 2,000 a day and threatens a global resurgence of the pandemic if the nation of 213 million becomes a breeding ground for new strains.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

How Covid-19 is Transforming the Hedge Fund Outsourcing Model

Brief : The Covid-19 pandemic is opening up a deeper discussion around more business functions becoming permanently outsourced, particularly among start-up and emerging hedge funds battling against budgetary constraints. Speakers at the fourth annual HedgeweekLIVE North America Emerging Manager summit this week discussed how approaches towards outsourcing – traditionally the next step on the emerging manager journey after launch – have dramatically changed as a result of the coronavirus crisis and remote working.  Jack Seibald, managing director and global co-head of prime brokerage and outsourced trading at Cowen, believes the pandemic has accelerated what had already been a meaningful upward trajectory in terms of outsourced trading. Initially driven out of necessity as a result of homeworking, many temporary solutions have turned out to be interesting opportunities for both managers and service providers, Seibald told the panel.    “It opened up the opportunity for a more comprehensive discussion about whether outsourced trading as a permanent solution would be the right thing for them,” he explained. “We saw an acceleration of that process and it’s particularly noticeable among emerging managers.” 

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Half of London Companies Plan for Home-Working Five Days a Week

Brief: Almost half of London companies whose staff can work from home expect them to do so up to five days a week after the pandemic finishes, and smaller businesses are more likely than larger ones to move ahead with remote working. That’s according to a poll of 520 business leaders by the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which also found that slightly more companies said employees’ main reason for concern about returning to the office was the risk of contracting Covid-19 when commuting -- rather than at the office. While most economists concur that remote working is likely to continue in some form, the figures suggest a profound impact on the workplace that could translate into reduced footfall in major cities and lower sales for businesses that rely on people going to offices.  “Many businesses have already made decisions regarding their premises and ways of working once restrictions are lifted,” said Richard Burge, chief executive officer of LCCI. “It’s about what business has judged best for the bottom line or productivity of their company.” About 6 million professional jobs in the U.K. that could be done from anywhere risk being outsourced to other countries, according to a separate report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, the research group founded by the former U.K. prime minister.

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Shareholder Activism Campaigns Rebound Out of Pandemic

Brief: Shareholder activists, fresh from stepping up their campaigns by a third in the first half of the year, are expected to be emboldened by an economic rebound for the rest of 2021. The total number of activist campaigns launched through June 21 at companies with a market value of more than $1 billion reached 116, up from 87 over the same period in 2020 and 115 in 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The first six months of the year marked a rebound in activism generally as the economy started to recover from the pandemic. Advisers expect that momentum to continue into the second half of the year and into 2022 and beyond. This year’s proxy season will largely be remembered for the unexpected victory of first-time activist Engine No. 1 over Exxon Mobil Corp. and the lift it gave to activist investors focused on environmental, social and governance issues. The little-known fund managed to win three seats on the board of the oil and gas giant despite owning only a 0.02% stake. It’s something other companies will need to take heed of heading into next proxy season, said David Rosewater, Morgan Stanley’s global head of shareholder activism and corporate defense. ESG issues are now at the forefront of a lot of campaigns, and front of mind for a lot of investors, he said.

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Dalio, Summers Still See Risk U.S. Overheats After Fed Shift

Brief : Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. is headed for a period of overheating and inflation that could threaten the economic recovery, even as the Federal Reserve signaled it would step in before that happened. “It’s easy to say that the Fed should tighten, and I think that they should,” said Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund. “But I think you’ll see a very sensitive market, and a very sensitive economy because the duration of assets has gone very, very long. Just the slightest touching on those brakes has the effect of hurting markets because of where they’re priced, and also passing through to the economy.” Dalio spoke in a conversation with Summers at the Qatar Economic Forum Monday. Fed officials surprised markets last week by accelerating their timeline for potential interest-rate increases. They also raised their inflation expectations for the next three years and have started to discuss when and how to pare back from their $120 billion in monthly asset purchases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.5% last week, the biggest drop since October.

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M&G Unveils Impact Fund Focusing on Health and Wellbeing

Brief: M&G Investments has launched an impact equity strategy which will seek to deliver attractive returns by investing in companies whose products or services are designed to promote better health and wellbeing. The M&G Better Health Solutions fund will be a concentrated portfolio of 30-35 holdings (32 at launch), managed by Jasveet Brar. The stocks will be diversified around better healthcare and better wellbeing, with the latter theme covering improvements in lifestyle, hygiene and safety. M&G will publish annual reports on each company's impact on the two themes and their revenue alignment with health-related UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The fund follows the same investment approach and process as M&G's £480m Positive Impact strategy, managed by John William Olsen, who will be a deputy on the new fund, as well as the recently launched M&G Climate Solutions strategy. Investible companies are ranked in three categories: pioneers, whose products or services have a transformational effect on society or the environment; enablers, which provide the tools for others to deliver positive social or environmental impact; and leaders, which spearhead and mainstream impact and sustainability in their industries.

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ESG Has So Far Been a Rich World Phenomenon. But Emerging Markets Are Catching Up

Brief: Emerging markets aren't what come to mind first when allocators think about investing in companies based on environmental, social, and governance goals. But the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of some of these objectives, especially the “S” in ESG. Teresa Barger, co-founder of Cartica Management, said the way companies treat their employees has become a critical factor in the valuation of their shares. Barger, who spent 21 years at the International Finance Corp. before going out on her own, should know. Cartica has a long history of applying activist techniques to companies exclusively in emerging markets. In fact, the firm, founded during the global financial crisis, makes money by persuading companies to fix their corporate governance issues, and identify and improve environmental and social risks.  Barger said companies that weren’t providing safety measures for factory workers, for example, saw their shares tumble during the pandemic. On the flip side, companies such as retailer Magazine Luiza in Brazil, which isn’t currently in Cartica’s portfolio, saw their prices skyrocket after announcing they wouldn’t lay off workers and that some executives in the firm, including the CEO, would not be taking a salary. Magazine Luiza, which runs both brick-and-mortar and e-commerce, also provided accommodations for its employees and their families.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Friday June 18, 2021:

  • In the United States, Americans now have a few more destinations to travel to, if they so choose. The European Union (EU) updated their travel list on Friday and the United States were added to the “white list”, allowing leisure travel within a few days. Some European countries were already allowing vaccinated Americans to visit but being added to the “white list” means restrictions on fully inoculated United States residents can be lifted across the 27-member EU bloc. The move is expected to be a major boost to American airline carriers like United Airlines and Delta, which fly the most profitable routes. The EU is now looking for America to reciprocate; allowing fully vaccinated EU citizens to travel to the United States.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government aren’t caving in yet to outside pressure to reopen the land border with the United States, extending the non-essential travel ban for another month on Friday. The announcement means the world’s longest undefended border will remain closed to only essential travel until at least July 21st. Canadian Public Safety Minister Bill Blair said the government would start to outline a plan for fully vaccinated Canadians on Monday. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce was not impressed with news on Friday calling the move another nail in the coffin for the summer tourism season for Canadians. 
  • In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s move to delay a full reopening on June 21st, seems to be a wise one following the latest data released on Friday from Public Health England (PHE). For the week of June 16th, PHE has reported 33,630 new cases of the Delta variant first identified in India, taking the number of confirmed cases to 75,593, which is a 79% increase from the previous total. “Cases are rising rapidly across the country and the Delta variant is now dominant,” said Jenny Harries, Chief Executive of the UK Health Security Agency. “It is encouraging to see that hospitalizations and deaths are not rising at the same rate, but we will continue to monitor it closely.”
  • Seeing what is happening in the UK, German health authorities are predicting the Delta variant will become the dominant coronavirus strain in their country by autumn at the latest. Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases, said the Delta variant only makes up for 6% of German cases right now, but it is not a question of if Delta will become dominant, but a question of when. Wieler is urging the German public to continue wearing masks indoors and get vaccinated. Restaurants, bars, beer gardens, hotels and concert halls have all been reopening in recent weeks in Germany to coincide with the hot weather and upcoming summer holidays.
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) official for Africa has called for an urgent acceleration in the supply of coronavirus vaccines to curb a new wave of COVID-19 infections and the evolution of new, potentially dangerous variants. “Africa is in the midst of a full blown third wave… “We’ve seen in India and elsewhere how quickly COVID-19 can rebound and overwhelm health systems,” said Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO’s regional director for Africa. Officials are pleased by the G7 pledge made last weekend to provide one billion vaccine doses to the developing world, but they say a much greater supply is needed immediately with cases rising by more than 30% across the continent in the last week. Among the hardest hit countries are South Africa, Tunisia, Zambia, Uganda, and Namibia.
  • The Indian Medical Association (IMA) was planning to hold a nationwide protest on Friday that was expected to draw over 350,000 doctors. The IMA are protesting the treatment of health officials in the country and are demanding a central law to protect doctors against violence. Last month, a doctor was attacked by relatives of a coronavirus patient who died in northeastern Assam state. The IMA is using the COVID-19 pandemic to draw attention to their cause as close to 750 doctors died during 2020 trying to look after patients and another approximate 700 died during the deadly second wave just a few months ago. 

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Renaissance Suffers $11 Billion Exodus with Meager Quant Returns

Brief : Investors are still headed for the exits at Renaissance Technologies, pulling $11 billion from the quant giant in seven months. Disgruntled by subpar returns, clients have now redeemed -- or asked to redeem -- more than a quarter of the capital that Renaissance manages in hedge funds with outside money, according to investor documents seen by Bloomberg. The firm now is mostly managing its own internal capital, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The exodus marks a setback for legendary investor Jim Simons, the military codebreaker and mathematician who started Renaissance and turned it into one of the industry’s most successful hedge fund firms. It’s also put the spotlight on a discrepancy not lost on clients: They’ve been losing money on struggling funds while Renaissance insiders have been reaping fat returns, with Simon himself making billions of dollars last year alone. From December to February, clients pulled, or asked to pull, about $5 billion from the funds, Bloomberg reported. That was followed by about $6 billion more through June, the documents show. While redemptions peaked in April, they slowed in May and June.

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‘Global GDP to Recover to Pre-Pandemic Levels in H1 2022’

Brief: Global GDP is likely to recover to pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022, an expert has said. Speaking at Federated Hermes’ outlook roundtable yesterday (June 17), Eoin Murray, head of investment at the investment manager, said recovery of global GDP will be "at some point within the first half of 2022". He added there are certain signs indicating whether economies will see long-term scarring. “There also appears to be an expectation that longer term economic scarring will most likely be down to, first of all, an incomplete recovery in the labor market. And secondly, bankruptcies,” he said. Murray expects the bankruptcies to be in zombie companies (a company that needs bailouts in order to operate) which have been created by quantitative easing. “We all know that the rate of bankruptcies has fallen during the pandemic, on the back of huge monetary support, contrary to my predictions of solvency problems at the beginning of the pandemic.

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Middle-Market Dealmaking is Back

Brief: Middle-market private equity firms have bounced back from Covid-19 pandemic-related lows, with dealmaking, exit activity, and fundraising showing signs of continued strength. In PitchBook’s U.S. PE middle-market report published Wednesday, author and PitchBook analyst Rebecca Springer cited “robust” dealmaking in the first quarter of 2021 as one element of the sector’s success. According to the report, deal count and value in the first quarter of 2021 “easily exceeded” numbers in the first quarter of 2020. In 2021, U.S. PE firms closed 776 deals and spent a total of $119.5 billion, an amount the report deems the “second highest quarterly deal value figure” since the fourth quarter of 2020. PitchBook credits the successful dealmaking to increased vaccinations, the Federal Reserve, and an “ample supply” of cheap debt.  “In Q4 2020, we saw a backlog from the pandemic, so deals that would’ve been done earlier but were delayed,” Springer told Institutional Investor. “In Q1, we saw a continuation of that.” As for the near future of deal activity in the middle markets, Springer expects the upward momentum to continue for the rest of the year. In the report, Springer lists the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and subsequent increased consumer and business spending as reasons for increased activity.

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2020-2021 Enforcement Report Published – Positive Results Amid the Pandemic

Brief :The Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) today published its Enforcement Report for the 2020-2021 fiscal year. The report presents the highlights of the AMF’s enforcement activities and results for the past year. “Despite the unprecedented public health crisis caused by the pandemic, the AMF showed agility and resilience by continuing its operations remotely and reacting quickly to protect consumers and ensure market efficiency,” said Louis Morisset, AMF President and CEO. “Our inspection, investigation and prosecution teams were very proactive and able to maintain their operations, resulting in a large number of prosecutions and in important rulings that sent a deterrent message,” said Jean-François Fortin, Executive Director, Enforcement. In addition to providing a comprehensive picture of the past year’s enforcement activities, the report describes major technological advances to detect potential violations and more efficiently manage investigation matters and prosecutions, as well as the AMF’s continuing offensive on the crypto asset front. The report also touches on the teams’ efforts to integrate mortgage brokerage into its inspection activities while supervising the clienteles regulated by the AMF, including in order to assess the impacts of the pandemic on their activities. The Autorité des marchés financiers is the regulatory and oversight body for Québec’s financial sector.

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Private Equity is Raising Dividend-Linked Debt Like It’s 2007

Brief: Europe’s private equity patrons are piling debt onto the books of their companies to support dividend payouts, a move which could threaten these firms’ prospects when the fiscal and monetary stimulus of the pandemic era starts to wind down. Just under 13 billion euros ($16 billion) of leveraged loan deals linked to dividend recapitalizations took place by early June -- the highest level in 14 years -- according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Leveraged Commentary & Data unit. That’s only 4 billion euros shy of the total for the same period in 2007, on the eve of the great financial crisis. The stimulus deployed since March last year has kept many companies afloat amid ruinous lockdowns. Some private equity owners have seized the chance to issue more debt from their companies, potentially jeopardizing how quickly they can bounce back as economies start to open up and policymakers mull tapering. “A dividend recap isn’t a positive credit scenario for any company,” said BlackRock Inc.’s Head of European Leveraged Finance James Turner. “But whether or not we decide to support them is dependent on each individual case.” German buildings material maker Xella International GmbH, for instance, was downgraded after it sought to borrow 1.95 billion euros in March this year, with nearly a third of that amount slated to go to private equity sponsor Lone Star Funds.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Thursday June 17, 2021:

  • In the United States, the government is planning to devote $3.2 billion to advance the development of antiviral pills for COVID-19 and other dangerous viruses that could turn into pandemics. The announcement was made by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, during a White House briefing on Thursday. The pills for COVID-19, which would be used to minimize symptoms after infection, are in development and could begin arriving by the end of 2021, pending the completion of clinical trials. Under President Donald Trump, America poured more than $19 billion into rapidly developing multiple vaccines. However, less than half that amount went toward developing new treatments, which experts emphasize the need to manage the disease in millions of Americans who may never get inoculated.

  • Canada was set to receive an additional one million doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine from the United States on Thursday. The delivery is part of a broad donation strategy by America and previously announced by the Biden administration. CBC is reporting while Canada’s vaccine rollout has sped up in recent weeks, it lags well behind the United States. For instance, 44% of the American population are considered fully vaccinated, compared to Canada’s 14%. American politicians are keen to see more Canadians become fully vaccinated, so that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government will be motivated to move more quickly and reopen the land borders to non-essential travel.

  • The United Kingdom government is considering plans to open international travel for passengers who’ve been fully inoculated against COVID-19. Under the discussed policy, the resumption of travel to more than 150 countries and territories could potentially mean that those fully vaccinated would not need to quarantine from the medium risk countries on the so-called amber list. Bloomberg is reporting upon airlines shares surging on the possible adjustment, Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to cool their jets, so to speak, noting “absolutely no decisions” have been made. Under current rules, those who arrive in England from destinations on the amber list must quarantine at home or in the place where they are staying for 10 days and take at least two COVID-19 tests during that period.

  • France has announced the easing of several COVID-19 restrictions in a surprise announcement that came on Wednesday. Prime Minister Jean Castex noted it will no longer be mandatory to wear masks outdoors and have halted an 8-month night coronavirus curfew, as of this weekend. The curfew will be lifted 10 days earlier than expected. “It’s actually improving more rapidly that we had hoped for,” Castex said. “My dear fellow citizens, I say it, I feel it: we are expecting an important moment, a happy moment of return to a form of normal life again.” Wearing a mask will remain mandatory in crowded outdoor spaces like street markets and stadiums, as well as indoor public spaces. 

  • In Japan, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on Thursday his government will be easing the state of emergency in Tokyo, along with six other areas starting next week. Daily cases have subsided substantially in recent weeks, allowing the government to make the move and as of Monday – new, less stringent measures will be introduced and be in place until July 11th – 12 days before the Olympics Games are set to begin in Tokyo. Prime Minister Suga also tried to reassure public health experts, noting if another surge occurs and strains hospitals, “we will quickly take action, including strengthening of the measures…”

  • China is engaging in another war of words with the Western world when it comes to the origins of COVID-19. A senior Chinese epidemiologist said the United States should be priority in the next phase of investigations into the origin of COVID-19. The statement comes after the U.S. National Institutes for Health (NIH) issued a study that showed at least seven people in five different states were infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, weeks before the country first started reporting its official cases. Commenting on the study released on Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said it was now “obvious” the COVID-19 outbreak had “multiple origins” and that other countries should cooperate with the World Health Organization.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

BlackRock to Allow Vaccinated Staff to Return to Office in July

Brief : BlackRock Inc. is adjusting its plans for U.S. employees to return to the office, allowing only fully-vaccinated staff to come back to work starting next month. The world’s biggest asset manager said that U.S.-based employees who’ve been inoculated against Covid-19 can resume in-person work in July and August if they’d like to, according to a memo from the New York-based company. Non-vaccinated staffers are not allowed in the office, the memo said. All employees will be required to report their vaccination status by June 30. The company said it will provide an update for non-vaccinated employees later this summer. The company already announced plans to bring employees back to the office in September while allowing some remote work.  Firms across Wall Street are experimenting with how to bring back workers, with some companies -- like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- taking a more ambitious stance about workers coming back, and others -- like BlackRock -- pursuing a hybrid approach. BlackRock changed its policy after receiving feedback from employees who said they would feel better about returning to work if their colleagues in the office were vaccinated.

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Bank of America Says All Vaccinated Staff to Return to Office in September

Brief: Bank of America Corp. expects all of its vaccinated employees to return to the office after Labor Day in early September, and will then focus on developing plans for returning unvaccinated workers to its sites. More than 70,000 of the firm’s employees have voluntarily disclosed their vaccine status to the bank, Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday. The firm, which has more than 210,000 employees globally, has already invited those who have received their shots to begin returning. “Right now we’re moving people back who are vaccinated,” Moynihan said. “We’re concentrating on getting them back to work because that allows people to move about under the CDC guidelines without masks and thing like that.” Bank of America and its rivals have begun unveiling plans in recent weeks to return thousands of workers to towers in New York and elsewhere in coming months as vaccines abound across the U.S. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. asked its New York staff to begin returning this week, marking the most ambitious plan among major Wall Street firms.

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Higher Barriers to Entry With Rising Competition and Regulation

Brief: Despite any headwinds caused by the pandemic, the private equity industry has remained strong, with investor demand and planned allocations continuing to grow. However, with high levels of dry powder and increasing regulator scrutiny, startup private equity funds have much to contend with. “There is currently more money available in private equity. The among of dry powder has exploded and is the highest it’s been in 10 years,” remarks Alain Kinsch, co-chairman of the Association of the Luxembourg Fund Industry (ALFI) Private Equity Committee and Vice-President of the Luxembourg Private Equity and Venture Capital Association. According to Hugh MacArthur, Partner, Bain & Co: “Total investment value last year was supported by ever-larger deals, not more deals. This fact is important because it means many GPs did not get the deals done that they had intended to in 2020.  “With soaring levels of dry powder, robust credit markets and recovering economies, 2021 deal markets promise to be incredibly busy.”

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Finding Value in Post-Pandemic UK Equities

Brief: If there is a prolonged shift in sentiment towards UK equities, the likelihood is that just as the negative view dragged the valuation of all companies down, so a rally in UK equities has the potential to place many stocks, good and mediocre alike, at elevated valuations. This creates a challenge for UK fund managers, as they seek to create portfolios without owning over-priced assets. Alexandra Jackson, who runs the Rathbone UK Opportunities fund, says one area to avoid at present is hospitality, despite the present good news surrounding the sector, as much uncertainty remains about the scale of future demand, particularly in London. Her view is that the valuations of many of those stocks already reflect positive news for the sector, but do not necessarily reflect the ongoing uncertainty. With this in mind, her way of gaining exposure to the reopening of the hospitality sector is via Johnson Service Group, a supplier of linen to the hospitality sector. She says the company will benefit from the cyclical recovery, but also may grow structurally in future if the public becomes more focused on hygiene issues as a result of the pandemic.

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The Outlook for Asset Managers is No Longer Negative, Moody’s Says

Brief: As global asset management industry recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, Moody’s has shifted its outlook for investment managers from negative to stable. In its June 2021 global asset management report, the credit rating company revised its outlook on the asset management industry, attributing the change to the strong market rebound after March 2020, the recovery of organic growth rates, and the resulting recovery in investor risk appetite. The report, which was published Wednesday, also noted that, as a result of strong market performance, asset managers’s revenue and profit margins have recovered from the pandemic crash.  “The industry has been resilient through the pandemic,” Rory Callagy, associate managing director at Moody’s Investors Services and lead author of the study, said in an interview. “Private markets provided a lot of that support, but there are also positive trends in the operating fundamentals.” In March 2020, extreme market volatility caused assets under management to fall. Moody’s analysts had expected this decline to send reverberations through the market for the rest of the year, but by the second quarter of 2020, the equity markets had “rebounded sharply,” the report said.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Wednesday June 16, 2021:

  • In the United States, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday that America is “well on the way” to a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Yellen referred to the $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief bill enacted in March as helping in the process. However, America still faces challenges in wage inequality, declined labor force participation, racial gaps and climate change. Yellen urged lawmakers to back President Joe Biden’s proposals for a multi-year $4 trillion spending plan on child care, infrastructure and green investments.
  • Canada’s transport minister says the government’s plans for a phased reopening of the border to international travel following COVID-19 restrictions will be shared “in the coming days.” Minister Omar Alghabra told reporters on Wednesday that talks are happening between the government, the airports and airlines to make sure they can be ready for when those travel rules begin to relax. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said in the past any easing of rules will focus on “fully vaccinated” Canadians. Prime Minister Trudeau has also tested negative for COVID-19 following his return from the G7 summit in the United Kingdom. Trudeau was following the rules set-out by his government staying in an Ottawa based hotel on Tuesday and can leave hotel quarantine – continuing the remaining time, isolating at home.
  • United Kingdom Health Minister Matt Hancock has said home care workers will be required to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 or risk losing their jobs. The new legislation will require home care workers to have two full doses of a vaccine by October. The measures won’t apply to those medically exempt and there will be a 16-week grace period. The news comes as five boroughs in London have more than 50% of their home care staff for the elderly with one shot or fewer. Recent data has shown England has 69% of its adult population with both jabs of an inoculation, which makes the vaccine at least 81% effective against the fast-spreading Delta variant. Those who have only received one dose of a vaccine, are only guaranteed around 31% effectiveness against the variant first discovered in India.
  • The European Union (EU) is recommending to its 27-member bloc to start lifting restrictions on tourists travelling from the United States. The move is generally seen as symbolic as the recommendation from the EU is non-binding, and national governments have the authority to require test results or vaccination records and to set other entry conditions as they see fit. The EU also has no unified COVID-19 tourism or border policy for the 27-member bloc but have been working for months on a joint digital travel certificate for those vaccinated, freshly tested or recently recovered from the virus. The certificate is generally meant for EU nations, but Americans and other countries from around the world can obtain the certificate too.
  • India government authorities are allowing the Taj Mahal and several other monuments to reopen as new coronavirus cases continue to decline. As of Wednesday, 650 tourists with online bookings will be allowed to day visit the Taj Mahal, one of the seven wonders of the world. Temperatures will be checked at the gates, face masks must be worn and physical distancing must be observed. The Health Ministry reported 62,224 new infections on Wednesday, down from the peak of more than 400,000 new infections a day just two months ago.
  • Australia’s city of Melbourne will start to see more restrictions lifted as of 11:59 PM Thursday night. Acting Victoria state premier James Merlino said the 25 KM distance limit to travel for Melbourne residents will be dropped, public gatherings will be allowed up to 20 people and businesses, including gyms and indoor entertainment venues can reopen. Masks will no longer be required outdoors, but will still be the case indoors, on public transport and in workplaces. As Australia heads into their winter months, Premier Merlino asked residents to get tested as soon as possible and don’t assume a sore throat or a cough are symptoms of the common cold.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Fed Holds Rates at Near Zero, Projects Two Possible Rate Hikes by End of 2023

Brief : The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates at near-zero but optimism over the progression of the U.S. economic recovery spurred more Fed officials to pencil in rate hikes by the end of 2023. The Fed also reiterated for now its commitment to its asset purchase program, which is absorbing about $120 billion a month in assets. “Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. A fresh round of its quarterly economic projections reflected the central bank’s optimism over the economic outlook, with 13 of the FOMC’s 18 members projecting at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The median member of the FOMC in the so-called “dot plot,” which maps out each member’s expectations for rates over coming years, now expects two rate hikes by the end of 2023. For comparison, the Fed’s dot plots in March of this year showed the median member expecting no rate hikes through that time horizon. The upward revision suggests that the Fed sees a faster-than-expected recovery. The economic projections raised expectations for real GDP growth in 2021 to 7.0%, a notch up from March projections for 6.5%.

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Blackstone Offers $3.05 Billion for Majority of Soho China

Brief: Blackstone Group Inc. offered to take over office developer Soho China Ltd. for as much as HK$23.7 billion ($3.05 billion), its biggest bet yet on the real estate market in Asia’s largest economy. The New York-based private equity firm is offering HK$5 in cash for each Soho share, it said in a Hong Kong stock exchange filing Wednesday, confirming an earlier Bloomberg News report that it was nearing a deal. The bid represents a 31.6% premium to Soho’s last closing price before trading was suspended. Soho Chairman Pan Shiyi and Chief Executive Officer Zhang Xin, who own a majority stake in Soho China, have agreed to sell most of their shares to Blackstone, according to the statement. They plan to keep a 9% stake after the deal closes. Blackstone intends to keep Soho listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, the statement shows. Blackstone has been investing in office, retail and logistics assets in China since 2008 and owns approximately 6 million square meters of properties in the country, according to the statement. The firm is doubling down on Asia, seeking to raise at least $5 billion for a fund focused on the region, people familiar with the matter have said.

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State Street Survey Identifies Actions Alternative Asset Managers Plan to Take to Meet Growing Investor Demands

Brief: State Street Corporation has published new research which reveals that with increasing pressures and demands on returns and reporting, alternative asset managers have work to do to meet the growing needs of institutional investors. The survey found that just 57 per cent of the alternative asset managers interviewed said their investment operations are built to scale to deal with increasing volume and complexity. 70 per cent believe they will need to increase the amount they invest in data storage, management and analysis; and only 24 per cent have already done so. Despite market instability, shifting business models and pressure on asset valuations, the vast majority (82 per cent) of alternative managers surveyed believe their organisation has been effective at responding to increasing investor demand for transparency and additional types of data. However, when highlighting areas for improvement, 57 per cent positively rated their companies data management, but less than half (48 per cent) said they have a good level of efficiency and effectiveness in their business’ technology systems, which underpins their use and management of data.

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Pfizer CEO sees a Return to ‘Normal’ Globally by the end of 2022

Brief: Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told CNBC on Wednesday he expects life could return to normal for developed countries by the end of this year and the rest of the world by the end of 2022. By the end of next year, there should be enough Covid-19 vaccine doses for most world leaders to successfully inoculate their populations against the virus, Bourla said during an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the CNBC Evolve Global Summit. “I think the whole world will have enough volumes [of vaccine doses] by the end of 2022 to vaccinate, to protect everyone,” he said. “And I think that by the end of this year, the developed world will already be in this situation.” Pfizer and German partner BioNTech reached the milestone of manufacturing 1 billion doses of their Covid vaccine last week, Bourla told CNBC. The two companies expect to produce up to 3 billion doses this year. The vaccine, one of three authorized for use in the U.S., has played a major role in driving down the number of new infections and hospitalizations across the country. As many states begin to lift their Covid restrictions and return to normal, leaders from other countries are urging the U.S. to donate leftover shots.

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Is Higher Inflation Here to Stay? Fund Managers Don’t Think So.

Brief: Nearly three-quarters of fund managers believe inflation will be short-lived, according to Bank of America’s latest investor survey. The survey, which was published Tuesday, found that 72 percent respondents view the current state of rising inflation as “transitory.” Still, fund managers don’t believe inflation has peaked yet, with net 64 percent of survey respondents predicting higher inflation in the next 12 months.  The survey, which included 224 participants with a total of $667 billion in assets under management, aggregated responses from June 4 to June 10. According to BofA, economic expectations among survey participants have peaked. Three-quarters of investors said they expect a stronger economy, a percentage that indicates investors’ “cruising altitude” when it comes to the market, according to David Jones, investment strategist at BofA Securities. “They are watching rates and inflation carefully, but people, at the moment, think inflation is transitory,” Jones told Institutional Investor. “We are seeing signs of a peak in optimism.”  Jones said the survey responses indicate that the market is evolving from the early part of the cycle into a mid-cycle position. As for expectations for future downturns, 68 percent of respondents think the next recession will occur in 2024 — no earlier.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday June 15, 2021:

  • In the United States, California is lifting most of its COVID-19 restrictions as part of a grand reopening on Tuesday. The state is America’s most populous with close to 40 million residents and was the first to implement stay-at-home orders due to the pandemic more than 15 months ago. California will end capacity limits, physical distancing and at least for those vaccinated – mask requirements. Vaccinated people can go without a mask in most situations, except for public transportation, hospitals, jails, schools and child care centers. Public health measures will only remain for mega-events, which are categorized as 5,000 or more people indoors, or 10,000 outdoors with vaccine verification required or at least recommended, according to the revised health order.

  • In Canada, it looks like the Atlantic bubble is getting closer to being re-inflated for a second summer. After its success last summer after the onset of the pandemic, the province of Nova Scotia announced Tuesday residents from New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador can travel to the province without self-isolating for 14 days. Nova Scotia Premier Iain Rankin said the move will be in effect as of June 23rd. The premier added he is in talks with the three other Atlantic premiers as discussions are ongoing on coordinating timing on when to reopen to the rest of Canada. Currently Nova Scotia is on track to do so by July 14th if COVID-19 cases continue to track in the right direction. The Atlantic region of Canada is home to close to 2.5 million residents and relies heavily on the tourism industry in terms of their economic needs.

  • The United Kingdom’s hospitality sector is to no surprise, not taking the news well of COVID-19 lockdown rules being extended for another month. UKHospitality, which represents restaurants, hotels and bars said its members will lose another £3 billion in sales, along with the €87 billion already lost since the outset of the pandemic. The extension also threatens the 300,000 jobs across the industry. The British Chambers of Commerce also weighed in on Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to delay the full reopening, calling the move a “hammer blow” to small companies already at the brink of bankruptcy. Economists though don’t see the move in quite the same light, noting while it would mean slower growth than previously estimated in the third quarter, the UK economy could then recoup some of the lost ground in the following three months.

  • Israel told its citizens they could stop wearing masks as of Tuesday, ending one if its last main restrictions against COVID-19. According to the government’s latest data, 55% of Israel’s 9.3 million population are fully vaccinated and in the last month have either logged zero, or one daily COVID-19 deaths per day. The Israeli health ministry said masks would still be required of unvaccinated patients or staff in medical facilities, along with people en route to quarantine and of passengers on commercial flights. Israelis have not had to wear masks outdoors since April.

  • The Philippines government have extended partial coronavirus curbs in Manila and nearby provinces until the end of June. President Rodrigo Duterte announced the move on Monday, along with placing more areas under tighter quarantine measures because of rising infections and high hospital occupancy. President Duterte didn’t sugar coat the situation the country is facing right now urging the public to get inoculated and comply with health regulations: “If you do not get vaccinated, you will really die.” The government now has imposed tighter measures in nine cities and 12 provinces, including those in central and southern Philippines, that limit the operating capacity of businesses and shut down non-essential establishments. 

  • In Japan, the government is considering placing Tokyo under a quasi-state of emergency during the Olympics. The plan is due to a number of health experts having expressed concern over a potential spike in COVID-19 cases. The Olympics are set to begin on July 23rd and were given the seal of approval by other G7 nations over the weekend. Tokyo, along with nine other prefectures in Japan have been under a state of emergency since at least late April, but it will likely end for the country’s capital city on June 20th as the latest wave of infections have somewhat subsided. The quasi-emergency will likely take the form of smaller fines for noncompliance under which restaurants and bars will still be asked to shorten hours but might be allowed to serve alcohol.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Morgan Stanley CEO to Staff: Be Back at New York Headquarters by September

Brief : Morgan Stanley's chief executive officer said on Monday that if most employees are not back to work at the bank's Manhattan headquarters in September, he will be "very disappointed." "If you want to get paid in New York, you need to be in New York," CEO James Gorman, speaking from the bank's offices at 1585 Broadway, told analysts and investors during a virtual conference. Like the rest of Wall Street, most of Morgan Stanley's nearly 70,000 employees worked remotely during the pandemic. But in recent weeks, rival banks JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group Inc have begun to bring employees back to U.S. offices on a rotational basis. Gorman said his bank's policy will vary by location, noting the firm's 2,000 employees in India will not return to offices this year. As of Monday, India has reported more than 29 million cases of COVID-19. During the wide-ranging conversation, Gorman said the bank's revenues in the second quarter "look good" and that it will "likely" make another acquisition in its wealth management business.

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Billionaire’s Hedge Fund Offers Hefty Pay to Combat Talent Squeeze

Brief: After the best year for hedge funds in a decade, promising traders can seek a place at the many major firms on a hiring spree or strike out on their own to seize on investor appetite. But a push by Schonfeld Strategic Advisors is a prominent example of a lucrative third option. The firm is dangling a hefty cut of profits as part of a foray into macro trading, taking a page out of the books of industry giants Citadel and Millennium Management. The pitch has already won over hedge fund veterans Colin Lancaster and Mitesh Parikh, who are in turn offering recruits the combination of a big firm’s backing and a stable capital base with the ability to set one’s own financial destiny with an average 20% of trading gains. The duo are among dozens of traders who are settling for the safety net of being part of a bigger firm rather than taking the risk of running their own shops. It strengthens an entrenched trend in the hedge fund industry: assets as well as trading talent concentrating in fewer and fewer players, reducing the ability clients have to negotiate fees.

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EU Raises €20 Billion in 10-Year Bond to Fund Virus Recovery

Brief: The European Commission said on Tuesday it has raised €20 billion ($24.2 billion) through a 10-year bond as part of its plans to finance the 27-nation bloc's recovery from the coronavirus crisis. EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the inaugural transaction of the NextGeneration EU program is the largest ever institutional bond issuance in Europe. The money will help finance the national recovery plans devised by member states to get their economies back on track. Von der Leyen said the bond was priced at “very attractive terms" and that the European Union will pay less than 0.1% interest on it. “Europe is attractive," she said. “By the end of this year, we expect to have issued around 100 billion in bonds and bills." The commissioner in charge of Budget and Administration, Johannes Hahn, said the recovery plan’s first borrowing operation attracted interest from investors across Europe and the rest of the world, including central banks and pension funds. To finance the stimulus, the EU's executive arm said it will raise from capital markets up to an estimated €800 billion by the end of 2026. In total, member states have agreed on a €1.8 trillion budget and pandemic recovery package.

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Why Bumpy Data Shows There is No Roadmap for this Economic Recovery

Brief: As the world emerges tentatively from the pandemic, economic data has been unpredictable at best. The April US jobs report showed 266,000 new hires, against economists’ estimates of 1 million. Inflation data also continues to diverge significantly from expectations. This has prompted Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to say: “As the economy gets back on line, it is going to be a bumpy process.” There are plenty of reasons for this bumpiness. The first is that there is no rule book for the economic impact of a pandemic. No-one really knows what happens when an economy is forcibly shut down and then reopened. Is it more akin to a natural disaster? Or to the global financial crisis? The Blackrock Investment Institute recently acknowledged the difficulties of interpreting data during this period: “Investors are grappling with how to interpret unusual growth dynamics and new central bank frameworks. On the first, US activity looks set to restart strongly this year, powered by pent-up demand across income cohorts and sky-high excess savings. Growth forecasts have been catching up, but the magnitude of the restart may still be underappreciated.

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Wealth Fund ADIA Reviews Real Estate Strategy as Pandemic Bites

Brief: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the world’s biggest property investors, is considering changes to its real estate strategy after some of its major holdings suffered during the coronavirus pandemic, people with knowledge of the matter said. The sovereign wealth fund is reviewing the performance of its property assets following weakness in a number of the shopping malls and office buildings in its portfolio, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. ADIA may consider cutting its exposure to some troubled investments, the people said. ADIA has shifted in recent years to making more direct property investments and relying less on external managers. The state-owned investor has amassed just under $700 billion in assets, according to estimates from data provider Global SWF, and ADIA has said real estate traditionally accounts for about 5% to 10% of that overall portfolio. While ADIA will continue to be a major player in property, it could shift its focus for future deals and increase exposure to areas like warehouses, life sciences properties, technology hubs and affordable housing, one of the people said.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence
 
Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Monday June 14, 2021:

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government have pushed back its plans to lift England’s coronavirus restrictions at least another four weeks. Prime Minister Johnson was forced to make the move on Monday after modeling showed hospital admissions could reach similar levels to the pandemic’s first wave back in March 2020, to just over 3,000 a day if the government stuck to its schedule of ending social distancing rules as of June 21st. “As things stand, and on the evidence I can see right now, I’m confident that we will not need more than four weeks,” Johnson said. “By being cautious now, we have the chance in the next four weeks to save many thousands of lives by vaccinating millions of people.” The government will review the data again on June 28th, with the possibility of easing restrictions by July 5th if it looks better than expected, but this is considered unlikely.
  • In the United States, biotech company Novavax announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine candidate has shown an overall efficacy of 90.4% in Phase 3 trials conducted across the country and Mexico. The study has been ongoing since December 2020 and enrolled close to 30,000 adults across 113 sites in the United States and six sites in Mexico. Novavax’s next step is to apply in the United States for emergency use authorization of its vaccine in the third quarter of this year and is on track to manufacture about 100 million doses per month once given the green light.
  • In Canada, the land border between the country’s two most populous provinces is set to reopen to all forms of travel starting Wednesday. The border between Ontario and Quebec was initially closed in late April to non-essential trips as Ontario was enduring a spike in COVID-19 cases. The decision comes as the coronavirus cases continue to improve in both provinces. As of Monday morning, all Quebec regions that were previously classified in the orange zone on the province’s COVID-19 alert system were downgraded to yellow. The Ontario land border will also re-open to Manitoba on Wednesday. 
  • France’s central bank said the economy is expected to return to pre-pandemic output at the start of 2022. The Bank of France stated the lifting of restrictions and the acceleration of vaccinations will fuel a stronger than previously expected rebound in the second half of 2021. The quickening of the economic recovery has triggered talks from members of the European Central Bank (ECB) on how and when to end its emergency support measures. Bank of France Central Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated any talk of tapering support measures is speculative and the recent acceleration in inflation that could lead the ECB to tighten policy is only temporary.
  • In Germany, Health Minister Jens Spahn suggested over the weekend to end the mask mandate for outdoor activities as COVID-19 infections continue to decline. Speaking in an interview, Spahn said ending the mask mandate should proceed in stages and will remain recommended “when in doubt” for instance when travelling or meeting indoors. Germany registered just 549 COVID-19 cases on Monday – the lowest daily total since September 21st.
  • Saudi Arabia will bar foreign pilgrims from visiting the Hajj for a second straight year due to COVID-19. The nation has restricted the annual pilgrimage to citizens and residents, set a maximum of 60,000 and those wishing to partake must be free of chronic diseases, be vaccinated and between the ages of 18 and 65. Last year, the kingdom reduced the number of pilgrims to just about 1,000 Saudi citizens and residents and was the first time Muslims from abroad were barred from the religious rite of passage in modern times. Before the pandemic, some 2.5 million pilgrims used to visit the holiest sites of Islam in Mecca and Medina for the week-long Hajj, which earned Saudi Arabia about $12 billion a year, according to official data.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Wall Street’s Return-to-Office Divide Laid Bare by Goldman, Citi

Brief : It’s a short stroll from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s global headquarters to Citigroup Inc.’s, but when it comes to reopening after the pandemic, the two Manhattan towers might as well be thousands of miles apart. Starting this morning, Goldman Sachs is requiring almost all employees at its perch over the Hudson River to report to their desks, marking one of Wall Street’s most ambitious returns to the workplace since COVID-19 besieged the city more than a year ago. Meanwhile, Citigroup won’t recall more of its staff to its mostly empty Tribeca tower in downtown Manhattan until July. Even then, the firm has told most workers that they can adopt a so-called hybrid schedule between home and the office longer term. Such divergences are popping up across Manhattan’s mighty financial industry, creating pockets of optimism within the city’s economy, but widespread anxiety inside workplaces. Bosses worry their teams will be less competitive if members are slow to come back. Parents fret about losing remote-work flexibility, but also that young, single colleagues and competitors may rush back sooner and soak up face time with executives or clients. “Women are absolutely nervous about it,” said Rob Dicks, Accenture Plc’s talent and organization lead for capital markets. “I’m seeing the HR and business leaders at banks recognizing, understanding and starting to plan around fairness in evaluations.”

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Club Deals Are Back. Here’s Why Asset Owners Are Skeptical

Brief: Club deals are back, whether institutional investors want them or not. Since the beginning of June, Blackstone has announced that it completed three massive transactions alongside fellow private equity firms. Asset owners are watching closely to see if they're a sign that club deals are becoming market mainstays. And it’s for good reason: when multiple private equity firms join forces and pool their resources to buy a big company, limited partners in their funds don't always benefit… Club deals were popular in the lead up to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, as PitchBook noted in a recent analyst note. In fact, in retrospect, they ended up being a signal for the peak of the market, unsustainable valuations, and a symptom of how much money the industry was sitting on. In some cases, they also ended in bankruptcy. For instance, after KKR, TPG, and Goldman Sachs acquired Energy Future Holdings for $45 billion, the company filed for bankruptcy in 2014. And it’s not the only one: Toys R Us and Caesars Entertainment were also victims of club deals, according to PitchBook. While the return of these deals may not signal a 2008-like market downturn, they do show that there is a mountain of dry powder waiting to be invested, but not enough companies to go around.

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Dimon Warns of Bigger Trading Revenue Drop After Covid Boom

Brief: Wall Street’s pandemic-era trading boom could be drawing to a close, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon signaling a 38% decline in trading revenue from a year ago -- a bigger drop than previously expected. Trading revenue at the largest U.S. bank will drop to just north of $6 billion in the second quarter, Dimon said Monday at a Morgan Stanley virtual conference. That tally could end up lower than the already reduced average analyst estimate of $6.5 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The drop comes after a year of pandemic-induced market volatility proved lucrative for the biggest Wall Street operations. JPMorgan shares dropped as much as 2% after Dimon’s comments, continuing a slide after the stock hit an all-time high earlier this month, with other bank stocks declining as well. This quarter will be “more normal” for fixed-income and equities trading, meaning “something a little bit north of $6 billion, which is still pretty good, by the way,” he said. Investment-banking revenue, meanwhile, will be driven up by an active mergers-and-acquisitions market, resulting in what “could be one of the best quarters you’ve ever seen” for that business.

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Aviva Investors to Dismiss Ten Equity Fund Managers

Brief: Aviva Investors, the investment arm of insurer Aviva, is reported to be laying off ten equity managers in an attempt to cut costs, with high-profile managers including Mikhail Zverev set to leave the firm. Aviva Investors has confirmed that "a number of roles have been put at risk" in its equities team, and said that consultations with the "impacted individuals" were underway, adding that "we are unable to provide further details while we go through the consultation process". According to The Mail on Sunday, the decision to reduce its equity management team will leave 25 fund managers at Aviva Investors and comes as activist investor Cevian Capital has built up a 5% stake in the insurer. Aviva Investors has confirmed that chief investment officer for equities David Cumming has already left the business. In a statement, Aviva Investors said: "We have taken the decision to focus our equities business on sustainable outcomes and core strategies where there is clear client demand, namely UK and global equities, while retaining sufficient coverage to support our multi-asset strategies." It added: "As a result of this decision, we have mutually agreed with David Cumming that he will leave Aviva Investors to pursue other opportunities. We would like to thank David for his positive contribution to the business since joining in 2018 and wish him all the best for the future."

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Fed-up Young Workers Fear They Need Offices to Save Their Careers

Brief: Managers hoping to lure employees into offices may find their youngest and newest staff are their strongest allies. Young white-collar staff feel caught between a rock and a hard place — they value quality of life over old-fashioned 9-5 commuting, but are even more worried about seeing their careers stall unless they head back into an office. That’s encouraging many to be among the first to return to their desks. While experienced employees often have established professional networks and dedicated home offices, younger staff say the pandemic has left them under-informed and cut off from their teams. There are now growing concerns that they are missing out on career opportunities older colleagues took for granted. Well over half of staff aged 21-30 stressed the importance of being able to meet and work with colleagues in person again, according to a 6,000-person survey carried out for Sharp Corp., results of which were shared with Bloomberg. Nearly 60 per cent said working in a modern, collegiate office environment has become more important to them over the past year. Despite a majority under 30 saying remote work made them more productive, over half of the survey’s respondents across Europe — ranging in age from 18 to 45 — say they feel anxious about a lack of training and career opportunities when thinking long-term about the future of work.

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