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Our briefing for Monday, October 4, 2021:
Oct 4, 2021 3:42:59 PM
- The United States is turning a corner on Covid-19 says Dr. Anthony Fauci, U.S. top infectious disease expert. Even as the death toll surpasses 700,000 in the country, there have been signs that the latest wave of the virus is on the decline. The number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 fell by about 25% since September 1, and daily deaths have fallen about 10% since September 20. “We certainly are turning the corner on this particular surge,” Fauci said in a Sunday interview on ABC’s “This Week”. “The way to keep it down, to make that turnaround continue to go down, is to do what we mentioned: get vaccinated.”
- In Canada, there are no Johnson & Johnson vaccines available for the provinces, the federal government says. Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said the country currently has no supply of the single-shot vaccine after Alberta made a request for 20,000 doses. British Columbia and Saskatchewan have also made requests for the Johnson & Johnson shot, but in the summer the federal government said it had no plans to purchase additional shipments of the vaccine. "Currently we don't have usable doses on hand, and so we're looking for additional doses so that we can get them very quickly to the provinces and territories," Hajdu said in a news conference.
- The United Kingdom simplified their new travel rules, scrapping their traffic light system in favour of a singular “red list.” Fully vaccinated travellers arriving from non-red list countries do not need to take a test prior to departure, they only need a single test on the second day after arrival. Unvaccinated travellers must take a test prior to departure, on the second and eighth days after arrival, and must quarantine for 10 days at home. Travellers arriving from a red list country must still quarantine for 10 days in a government-approved hotel. The red list, which currently has 54 countries on it, is due to be updated later this week.
- In Japan, Fumio Kishida took office as the new prime minister, faced with leading the country out of the coronavirus pandemic. Kishida also named a new vaccines minister, Noriko Horiuchi, who is one of only three women in Kishida’s cabinet. Kishida replaces Yoshihide Suga, who resigned after only one year in office when he was widely criticized for his government’s handling of the pandemic and decision to hold the Tokyo Olympics. Kishida, who says his top priority will be the economy, will have to balance social and economic activities with the vaccine campaign and other measures to prevent a resurgence of the virus.
- South Korea has extended social distancing curbs as the latest wave of the virus continues to impact the country. The curbs, which will now remain in place until October 17, involve a ban on gatherings of more than two people after 6 p.m. and a ban on eating at restaurants after 10 p.m. Last week South Korea’s daily numbers topped 3000 for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, averaging out at more than 2635 over the past week. The government is offering new incentives to people to get vaccinated, including allowing higher numbers of wedding attendees for vaccinated people.
- Australia’s Health Minister Greg Hunt announced that coronavirus cases are starting to level off as the country reaches target vaccination rates. About 80% of Australians have had their first shots according to Hunt, and the government expects to reach 80% full vaccination rates by the middle of November. "There are important reasons for hope," Hunt told a news conference. New South Wales reported 623 new coronavirus cases, down from 900 daily cases reported last week, and Victoria state reported 1377 new Covid-19 infections, up slightly from the 1220 reported the day before.
Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management
Goldman Says Rishi Sunak Is Still Worried About U.K. Unemployment Jump
Brief: Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak may be touting a recovery in the U.K.’s job market, but his latest spending pledge shows he’s still concerned about a spike in unemployment now his furlough plan has ended, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.In a speech to the Conservative Party Conference on Monday, Sunak heralded the performance of the U.K.’s labor market during the pandemic, and announced 500 million pounds ($680 million) of funding to help get people back to work after the expiry of the wage-support program. For Goldman economists, that extra spending, while low compared with the billions spent on furlough, is a sign the Chancellor is still harboring concerns about the outlook for the labor market even as he insists it was right to end the support in September.
Back in black: U.S. Supreme Court returns from COVID-19 telework
Brief: U.S. Supreme Court justices are set to don their black robes and sit once more behind a mahogany bench in their grand courtroom on Monday as they resume in-person oral arguments for the first time since COVID-19 pandemic disruptions started last year. In a tentative step toward normalcy, the nine justices will be joined by lawyers, court staff and journalists in their spacious column-lined courtroom as they begin their new nine-month term. No members of the public will be present. The court building has been closed to the public since March 2020 due to the pandemic, with the justices hearing oral arguments via teleconference. In a sign of how planning during the pandemic is constantly in flux, preparations for the new term were disrupted on Friday when Justice Brett Kavanaugh tested positive.
RBNZ Set to Raise Rates Even as Delta Outbreak Shackles Economy
Brief: New Zealand’s central bank is expected to embark on a series of interest-rate increases to tame inflation and rein in soaring house prices, even as a coronavirus outbreak that has now spread beyond Auckland poses a greater risk to economic growth. Reserve Bank policy makers will raise the official cash rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.5% Wednesday in Wellington, according to 20 of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Most predict it will follow up with a succession of hikes over the coming year, taking the rate to around 1.5% by August 2022, though the persisting outbreak of the highly infectious delta strain of Covid-19 could interrupt the tightening cycle. “We expect the RBNZ to go ahead with hiking the OCR on Wednesday, while noting downside risks to the outlook,” said Sharon Zollner, chief New Zealand economist at ANZ Bank in Auckland. “There’s no question that the situation is grimmer than we were all assuming back in August. We thought we were looking at a relatively short, successful lockdown and then we would be Covid-free, and that’s not likely at all any more.”
Property Deals Reach Record $108 Billion After Pandemic Plunge
Brief: Deals by real estate investment trusts totaled $108 billion this year through September, beating the annual record as ample capital fueled transactions in the recovering economy, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. The U.S. deal surge signals the beginning of a new cycle emerging from the pandemic-related economic halt, according to Sheheryar Hafeez, a managing director in the capital markets group at JLL. “There is renewed confidence in the runway ahead of us in 2022 and beyond,” said Hafeez, whose company released a report on REIT transactions Monday.REIT mergers and acquisitions had plunged to $17 billion last year. Even before the pandemic, deals were slowing from the recent high of $86 billion in 2018 as investors worried about the decade-plus bull market coming to an end, according to Hafeez. The all-time high was $103 billion in 2006.
Airlines Sees Covid-Related Losses Exceeding $200 Billion
Brief: Airline losses from the coronavirus pandemic are set to surpass $200 billion as travel curbs weigh on corporate and long-haul demand well into 2022, according to the industry’s main lobby. Carriers are poised to post a collective deficit of $11.6 billion next year, the International Air Transport Association said Monday in Boston at its annual meeting. The trade body also increased its loss estimate for this year, and revised upward the shortfall for 2020. The combined $201 billion in net losses over the pandemic-blighted period eclipses close to nine years of industry earnings, based on IATA figures. While domestic and regional travel have begun to rebound, there’s been little recovery in the globe-spanning business routes so crucial to many carriers. The U.S. is poised to open its borders to trans-Atlantic visitors next month, but other long-haul markets remain in the doldrums, especially those connecting Asia with Europe and North America.
