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Our briefing for Friday, January 28, 2022:
Jan 28, 2022 3:46:15 PM
- In the United States, the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate for healthcare workers has now gone into effect and as of Thursday, those who have not had at least their first dose can be suspended without pay. The mandate, which allows for medical and religious exemptions, will cover about 10 million workers at hospitals and nursing homes who receive funding through The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. The mandate will be enforced in 25 states and will be applied to the rest of the country over the coming weeks, as deadlines were staggered after several challenges to the rules were made. The Supreme Court finally backed the mandate for healthcare workers, but struck down the administration’s call for the rules to extend to all large employers.
- In Canada, the RCMP are investigating a website based out of British Columbia, after a Global News report found that it offered alleged fake Covid-19 vaccine and mask exemptions. The website, called “Enable Air,” says it works with unnamed “licensed physicians” to provide vaccine and mask exemptions for an undisclosed fee. The website has been linked to two B.C. physicians, one of whom is still practising. The College of Physicians and Surgeons of B.C. has recently come under pressure to properly investigate those doctors who are sharing unverified medical information on Covid-19 vaccines. The RCMP say they are in the evidence gathering stage of the investigation.
- In the United Kingdom, some experts say the government’s move to scrap Plan B Covid-19 restrictions came too soon, and that the prime minister should be focusing on getting vaccines to the 3 billion unvaccinated people across the world. In a two-page letter signed by over 300 scientists, health experts and academics, the prime minister is accused of failing to take enough action to augment vaccination levels worldwide. “Vaccinating the vast majority of the world’s population is the best way to prevent Sars-CoV-2 from mutating. However, as the U.K. has provided booster doses to up to 1 million people every day, more than 3 billion people across the world have yet to receive their first dose.,” the letter says. The letter is signed by 13 members of Johnson’s Sage Committee and subcommittees as well as an adviser to the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.
- In Germany, lawmakers had their first debate over a possible coronavirus vaccine mandate. Right now they are considering three options: requiring all adults to be vaccinated, requiring counselling for those who are unvaccinated while having those 50 and over get their shots, or no mandate at all. Chancellor Olaf Scholz supports mandatory vaccines for everyone 18 and over, but his coalition government remains divided over the issue. As of Wednesday, about 74% of Germany’s population was fully vaccinated, which is lower than in other European countries like France, Italy and Spain. A draft law should be ready for parliamentary vote by March.
- India’s capital city of Delhi has lifted a weekend curfew and will allow restaurants and cinemas to operate at 50% capacity. Schools and colleges will remain closed for now, and the 10 PM to 5 AM night curfew will stay in place. “In view of the decline in positive cases, it was decided to gradually ease restrictions while ensuring adherence to Covid Appropriate Behaviour,” Delhi’s lieutenant governor Anil Baijal said. The number of new coronavirus cases in Delhi fell to below 5,000 on Thursday, down from a high of 28,867 on January 13.
- Australia has recorded its deadliest day of the pandemic so far, with 98 deaths reported and the first cases of the BA.2 descendant of the Omicron variant identified in New South Wales (NSW). Australia now has 35 cases of BA.2 and they span across NSW, Tasmania, Queensland, West Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. While overall case numbers are plateauing, officials say deaths will remain high for some time. “As we have seen during the two years of the pandemic, the number of deaths associated with those cases stay higher for a longer period,” said. Prof. Alison McMillan, the country’s chief nursing and midwifery officer.
Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management
The investment chief at the world's largest hedge fund says stocks must sink another 20% before the Fed steps in
Brief: Stocks must slide another 20% before the Federal Reserve takes action, according to an investment chief at the world's largest hedge fund. Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, told Bloomberg News that the Fed won't come to the market's rescue — in what's known as a Fed put — until the market drops another 15% to 20%. Even if that happens, he said it would depend on how quickly the bottom falls out from the market. So far this year, the stock market has largely slumped. The S&P 500 has dipped 9% to 4,349.93 as of early Thursday. Another 20% decline would bring the index down to about 3,480 points — a level last seen around the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Investors were initially spooked by the potential for lower liquidity after Wednesday's Fed meeting when Chairman Jerome Powell said there's plenty of room to raise rates and declined to rule out rate hikes at every meeting this year.
Growth and the remote work revolution
Brief: For once since 2022 began, Thursday featured some good news on the economy. Last year’s fourth quarter and full year growth checked in at unexpectedly strong levels and Apple (AAPL) posted a record quarter, two recent instances where data or earnings haven’t disappointed investors. In spite of a litany of reasons like Omicron, inflation, impending rate hikes and a snarled supply chain, the world’s largest economy somehow finds new ways to defy expectations. Yet upward trends are masking a spotty recovery, with small businesses — the backbone of the U.S. economy — bearing the brunt. And at least some of the reasons have to do with remote work, a topic the Morning Brief has been exploring with increasing regularity, and for very important reasons. Two full years into the pandemic, legions of office workers are still camped out in makeshift home offices. It’s forcing employers to completely rethink the nature of the workplace, and how to attract and retain talent.
U.S. Housing Market Gained Almost $10 Trillion During Pandemic
Brief: Strong demand and limited supply led to a historic jump in the value of the U.S. housing stock, which surged to $43.4 trillion last year. The aggregate value of homes has now doubled since a decade ago, when the market was recovering from the Great Recession, according Zillow Group Inc. Cities that have attracted people during the pandemic saw the biggest percentage gains last year, with Austin and Raleigh, North Carolina, topping the Zillow data. New York City, which many fled in the past two years, had the smallest increase among 50 metro areas, at 10.9%. “Even in the context of a year in which several housing records were topped, the scale of the housing market’s growth in 2021 is eye-popping,” Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker said in a statement.
Financial services firms show elevated confidence in UK
Brief: Up to 90% of global financial services firms in a survey said they planned to expand operations in the UK in 2022, according to an EY UK attractiveness report.The spike revealed the highest level of investor confidence seen in the region since the consultant began its attractiveness analysis.Financial services firm are confident about planned investment across the UK and 41% of the firms, who were surveyed in November 2021, said that the pandemic had led them to increase investment in the region.As many as 8% revealed they were planning a substantial increase in investment. This was markedly higher than in the spring of last year, when just 6% of surveyed firms said they were planning on increasing their level of activity in the UK.
US economy grew at fastest rate since 1984
Brief: US GDP grew at 5.7% last year, its fastest rate since 1984, despite two new virus variants emerging in 2021. Growth was uneven with the economy growing at 6.9% from October to December, a steep acceleration from growth of just 2.3% in the previous quarter. The growth created 6.4m jobs in 2021, but also saw the highest inflation in 40 years. After shrinking in the first three quarters of 2021, inventories rose at a $173.5bn annual rate in the last quarter, which may alleviate the concerns of supply chains problems that have plagued 2021. Housing fell 0.7% in the last quarter, its third consecutive drop, though it remained 13.2% above pre-pandemic level. Real spending at restaurants also fell in Q4, but is still 2.4% above pre-pandemic levels. Unusually, tobacco consumption plunged in the last quarter, now standing at 5.6% below pre-pandemic level.
