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Our briefing for Friday, February 18, 2022:
Feb 18, 2022 2:51:08 PM
- In the United States, new modelling suggests that 73% of Americans are now immune to Omicron, and that number could rise to 80% by mid-March. Factoring in booster shots, confirmed infections and those infections that are never reported, experts calculated that millions of Americans’ immune systems now recognize the virus. Further, scientists at Johns Hopkins University estimate that three out of four Americans will be infected by Omicron by the end of the surge. Ali Mokdad works on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model, which calculated the 73% for the Associated Press. Mokdad says he’s confident about the coming months in America. “I am optimistic even if we have a surge in summer, cases will go up but hospitalizations and deaths will not,” Mokdad said.
- In Canada, the federal government is offering cities a one-time cash supplement of $750 million, to help address revenue losses for public transit due to Covid-19. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the funding comes with two conditions: provinces must match the funding, and work with cities more closely to increase the supply of housing. During the federal election, the mayors of Canada’s biggest cities asked for a multi-year funding commitment to help make up public transit shortfalls. Toronto’s operating shortfall for this year is expected to be $561 million, Edmonton’s $53.7 million and close to $100 million for Vancouver.
- In the United Kingdom, the government will stop supplying universities with free Covid-19 testing, in the latest step towards dropping the mass provision of free lateral flow tests. The contract to supply the test kits to universities, through the National Health Service (NHS) and U.K. Health Security Agency, will be terminated and not renewed. The Guardian reports that the cabinet is divided over the future of the testing strategy, with the Treasury pushing for an end to free testing in order to save money, and the health secretary wanting to keep some free testing in place to support community tracing.
- Israel has announced that the country’s vaccine “green pass” system has been suspended as coronavirus infections decline. The green pass limits entry to indoor venues and large gatherings to people who have had three doses of vaccine or people who have recovered from the virus. On Thursday Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said there was a serious decline in case numbers, and that now is a good time to end the proof of vaccination system. Israel was one of the first countries in the world to require a vaccine certificate, and to date, some 48% have had three doses of vaccine, while 72% have had at least one dose.
- In South Korea, cases have topped 100,000 for the first time, as authorities plan to relax restrictions for businesses. The curfew for restaurants and cafes has been moved from 9 PM to 10 PM after the government received negative feedback from business owners. The remaining pandemic restrictions will stay in place until at least March 13, officials said. They include limits on private gatherings to six people, seven-day quarantines for international travellers, vaccine passport systems and mask mandates in public spaces. The move to ease restrictions comes as the country prepares for its next pandemic election, which is set for March 9.
- In Australia the states of New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria will begin to ease pandemic restrictions over the next week, with similar changes taking place across both states. From 6 PM on Friday, Victoria will remove capacity limits on venues, and QR code check-ins will no longer be required in most settings. In NSW, capacity limits will be scrapped from 12:01 on Friday, and singing and dancing in nightclubs can resume. The order to work from home will also be lifted in NSW, leaving the decision to employers. Mask mandates will remain in place in NSW until February 25.
Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management
UK retail sales bounce back from tough December but 'warning lights blinking'
Brief: UK retail sales increased by 1.9% during January following a 4% fall in December, according to figures released today (18 February) by the Office for National Statistics, with home improvements significantly contributing to the uptick. While non-food items provided the biggest bump, having risen by 3.4% during the month, food store sales volumes fell below pre-Covid levels for the first time, dropping 0.8% below where they were in February 2020. Sales volumes across the piste were 3.6% above their pre-pandemic levels, although 76% of consumers say they can now feel the impact of rising inflation. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer and fund manager on the Premier Miton diversified fund range, said given the rise in inflation and borrowing costs, as well as spikes in energy prices and tax increases, "we are likely to see some patchy data in the coming months".
61% of people working from home are doing so because they want to, even though their office is open
Brief: More people are choosing to work from home because they want to, even if their office is open and they’re less concerned about Covid risks, according to new findings from Pew Research Center. According to a January survey of 5,889 workers, 61% of people working from home today say they’re not going into their workplace because they don’t want to, and 38% say their office is closed. It’s a reversal from October 2020, when 64% of people were working from home because their office was closed, and 36% were doing so out of preference. Even as more offices open up, “people are making a conscious choice to work from home, rather than just out of necessity,” says Kim Parker, Pew’s director of social trends research. Teleworkers say they’re choosing to stay home for better work-life balance, productivity or because they’ve relocated away from the office. Fewer people say Covid is the main reason why they’re working from home (42% now vs. 57% in 2020).
Uneven Recovery Worsens Risks for Global Economy, Indrawati Says
Brief: An uneven economic rebound is complicating discussions among finance chiefs and central bank governors of the world’s biggest economies as they meet this week to navigate a fragile global recovery. “Some are facing this with high growth and inflation, so they have to adjust their policy domestically, but at the same time other countries are still left behind,” Indonesia’s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati told Bloomberg Television’s Yvonne Man and Haslinda Amin in an interview Friday from the sidelines of the Group of 20 meetings. “That can create an environment for policy that is not easy.” Indonesia, which is taking the helm of the G-20 for the first time, is seeking to release a communique when the meeting ends Friday that can address equal access to financing and ensure the transition to renewable energy can be affordable to all countries. An uneven economic rebound is complicating discussions among finance chiefs and central bank governors of the world’s biggest economies as they meet this week to navigate a fragile global recovery.
Covid-19 Partially Closes Iconic Hong Kong HSBC Building
Brief: British-based, Asia-focused bank HSBC has closed down several floors of its landmark main Hong Kong office from Friday after several staff tested positive for Covid-19. The closure comes as Hong Kong’s business and financial institutions react to a coronavirus outbreak that is growing rapidly despite a so-called “dynamic zero” government policy that calls for suppression rather than containment of the virus. Health officials are expected to a record 3,600 new cases on Friday, with a further 7,600 testing preliminarily positive. People who test positive in Hong Kong for the virus are sent to public hospitals for isolation while their close contacts are ordered to isolate for 14 days, sometimes in austere government facilities. HSBC said that it would temporarily close the BL1, L3, L5 and L6 levels of its headquarters in Hong Kong’s Central district. The bank did not indicate how long the closure would last or how it would affect operations in the iconic Norman Foster-designed tower in the heart of Hong Kong’s Central district.
Resilient return profile for real estate investors
Brief: The Covid pandemic had a massive effect on the global commercial real estate market. The preliminary success of return to work continues to decline as new Covid-19 variants emerge, making a mass return to work more unlikely, while the retail industry is taking big hits from e-commerce and the expansion of home delivery services. Despite the outlook, a number of real estate sectors give reason for optimism, one of those is life sciences real estate. With the market already seeing strong demand conditions attributed to an ageing population, rising healthcare spending, and enthusiastic venture capital investments, the start of the pandemic has only accelerated this growth. The rapid development of several effective Covid-19 vaccines led to a significant increase in capital focusing on the life science office sector. Research and development of vital medicines, as well as increased testing and treatments to tackle Covid-19, have also boosted occupancy levels.
