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Brief: The private equity world’s massive push into U.S. health care is giving deep-pocketed investors a boost from taxpayer funds meant to prop up small businesses. Buyout firms were largely excluded from tapping the federal bailout money as the coronavirus pandemic prompted shutdowns. Yet a trove of data from the Paycheck Protection Program made public this week lists millions of dollars in loans to medical and dental practices that work in tandem with ventures controlled by private equity -- setting up those investments to benefit too. Abry Partners, Prospect Hill Growth Partners and Gauge Capital are among private equity firms with portfolio companies that partner with medical practices that the government says took loans. Representatives for the investment firms didn’t respond to messages and phone calls seeking comment on whether they gained from the injections. It’s particularly striking that the cash-rich world of private equity could get backdoor taxpayer support for investments in health care that have concerned lawmakers and government officials. Buyout firms have pumped more than $10 billion into bets on medical practices over the past five years, transforming the financial workings of clinics focused on specialties such as women’s health, dermatology, urology and gastroenterology.
Brief: Wells Fargo & Co <WFC.N> is preparing to cut thousands of jobs starting later this year, Bloomberg Law reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. The company's plans will eventually result in eliminating tens of thousands of positions due to pressure to "dramatically reduce costs", the report said. Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest U.S. lender by assets, is leaning on cost cuts to stabilize its bottom line as it recovers from a raft of fines and costs relating to sales abuses first uncovered in 2016 and mounting loan loss provisions due to the coronavirus-driven economic downturn. The bank's executives have not yet adopted a specific target for shrinking its workforce of about 263,000, the report added, citing one person familiar with the matter. They are not likely to share details on the plan when they announce the bank's second-quarter results on July 14, the report added. A spokesman for Wells Fargo declined to comment on the report.
Brief: Private equity investments appear to be weathering the impact of the pandemic across multiple sectors and geographies, according to the results of a Private Equity and COVID-19 study by Willis Towers Watson (NASDAQ: WLTW), indicating that despite a subdued environment for exit deals in the first six months of the year, there has been little evidence of forced exits. The survey, which took place in April across 36 private equity funds representing 300-plus portfolio companies, was designed to better understand how businesses were coping due to the pandemic as well as setting out expectations for the coming months. The results revealed the significant turmoil in capital markets has had little effect on the capital structures of portfolio companies, with 87% of respondents saying their holdings were unlikely to breach covenants as a result. Only 13% said holdings were either close to breaching or likely to breach covenants in the next two to three months… Regarding customer demand for products or services, however, responses were far more varied with 46% of respondents reporting their holdings were feeling a medium-to-high impact from the slowdown in global economies, mostly within the consumer discretionary, industrials, energy and materials sectors. In contrast, sentiment among commercial services firms remained robust, while 20% of consumer staples firms even reported a positive impact on demand.
Brief: Hedge funds lost a record 7.9% in the first half of the year on an asset-weighted basis, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. None of the four major strategies made money as the industry struggled to trade with the Covid-19 pandemic convulsing global markets. Event-driven funds were the worst performers, losing 9.6%. Relative-value funds posted the smallest decline, at 5.1%. The losses for the period were the steepest ever in data going back to 2008, according to HFR data released Wednesday. In March, the industry grappled with the end of the longest bull market as the coronavirus spread worldwide. But equities bounced back by the end of June, with the S&P 500 Index surging 39% from its March 23 low. Funds broadly fell 0.4% in June, even as the S&P benchmark gained 1.8% to cap its best quarter since 1998. It was the fourth month in the red for hedge funds this year.
Brief: Funds that offer daily redemptions to investors may have to restructure to better reflect the time it takes to sell illiquid assets like property, Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority said on Wednesday.Retail property funds have been suspended because of their inability to value the commercial real estate they hold after markets were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.The FCA and the Bank of England have already proposed principles on how to deal with “liquidity mismatches”, or where investments in a fund cannot be sold fast enough to meet daily redemptions without incurring losses in a market crisis.Retail property funds also had to be suspended in the immediate aftermath of Britain’s vote in June 2016 in favour of leaving the European Union. FCA interim Chief Executive Chris Woolard said there has been considerable discussion about how to ensure redemption arrangements offer a fair deal to those remaining in the fund as well as those who wish to exit.
Brief: Household names Hertz (HTZ), J.C. Penney, and Neiman Marcus make up a fraction of the thousands ofcompaniesthat havedeclared bankruptcysince the outbreak of thenovel coronavirus. The downturn may spell misery for employees and business owners, but it offers a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for debt investors, who can do “extremely well” making loans to companies that falter, says Marc Lasry, the billionaire co-founder and chief executive of hedge fund Avenue Capital, which specializes in investments in distressed businesses. “I know you're not supposed to say this, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” says Lasry, also the co-owner of the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks. “You're not going to see this again: Where you've actually got an economy that's fine, and you've got a Fed pumping trillions of dollars in.” Avenue Capital, whichsays it manages about $10 billionin total assets, has invested in struggling brands like Macy’s (M) and J.C. Penney, Lasry said. The firm can issue senior debt that takes priority when a company begins to pay off its loans or cede ownership, Lasry added in the newly released interview, taped on June 29. “For us, you've got an opportunity to invest at a senior level and do extremely well,” Lasry says. “So you'll either get paid out, or you're going to end up owning the equity of this company.”
Brief: KKR & Co. agreed to buy Global Atlantic Financial Group in a deal that gives it a major presence in the insurance industry and adds long-term capital. The alternative-investment manager will acquire closely held Global Atlantic’s outstanding shares, according to a statement Wednesday, in a transaction that could be valued at more than $4 billion. Global Atlantic, which was founded within Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in 2004 and became independent in 2013, had more than 2 million policyholders through its retirement and life insurance products and almost $70 billion in invested assets as of March 31. KKR shares jumped the most in four months, gaining 9.2% to $33.60 at 9:40 a.m. in New York. KKR’s rivals have been building out their own insurance arms in recent years and have brought on executives who can help them attract more business. Insurers are facing historically low yields in fixed-income markets. Apollo Global Management Inc. helped turn annuity seller Athene Holding Ltd. into a business with a market value of $5.8 billion, and funds affiliated with Blackstone Group Inc. teamed up with other investors in 2017 to buy Fidelity & Guaranty Life.
Brief: Crispin Odey’s flagship hedge fund slumped to a 17.9% loss in the first half. The Odey European Inc. Fund fell in five out of six months, including a 7.3% drop in June, wiping out a surge during the market sell-off in March, according to a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. Odey’s losses compare with a 3.5% slide across the industry that was led by led by event-driven and equity hedge funds, according to preliminary figures from the Bloomberg Hedge Fund Indices. “The future is as unknowable today as it was three months ago,” Odey wrote in the letter, without giving an explanation for the fund’s performance. The fund’s losses come despite Odey Asset Management reportedly making at least 25 million euros ($28 million) betting against shares in scandal-hit German payment company Wirecard AG, and a reported gain of at least 75 million pounds ($94 million) from the demise of U.K. shopping mall owner Intu Properties Plc. The performance follows years of losses as Odey maintained bearish bets during an historic bull run. When the market cratered in March, he was among the few bearish investors to profit from the downturn, posting a 21% gain for the month. His main fund has shrunk over the years, and now manages $624 million, according to the letter. That’s down from about $700 million in March.
Brief: Many investors will recall that Warren Buffet wrote in 2002 that “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out”. Today, given the global economic shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, investors and their advisers should be prepared to ask difficult questions in order to spot red flags, and get back onto shore before the metaphorical tide turns. The UK faces an estimated 35% fall in GDP for the second quarter of 2020; the OECD notes that Britain will suffer the worst economic harm of any developed country. Whilst the pandemic is unprecedented in its severity and scale, history does show a correlation between the current economic crisis and the discovery of corporate fraud and misconduct. The 2008 financial crash saw a 2.1% fall in the UK’s GDP and a 7.3% increase in fraud cases. By contrast, the UK currently faces a 35% decrease in GDP for the first half of 2020. Recent months have already seen notable scandals, including Wirecard’s €1.9bn accounting hole, fabricated sales at Luckin Coffee, and NMC Health’s undisclosed debt of $2.7bn. Why does fraud come to light during financial crises? As economies decline, struggling firms will look to adapt, and perhaps restructure entirely, in order to preserve cash and, therefore, survive. In so doing, company operations and accounts will be examined, and historic issues may be spotted.
Brief: In recent years, investors have poured cash into low volatility stocks, hoping to soften the blow of the inevitable market correction on their portfolios. But these stocks have done little to protect investors from the wild markets that started earlier this year when the spread of Covid-19 shut down economies around the globe. In theory, stocks with less volatility than the broader market underperform when equities are rising, but should hold up better during downturns. Low volatility strategies didn’t do that this time around. The pandemic may have changed the characteristics of stocks considered to be defensive, according to new research from $30 billion investment firm PanAgora Asset Management, which manages money using quantitative and fundamental techniques. PanAgora’s examination of low vol comes as investors and academics have been questioning the data and behavior of other widely used factors — stock performance characteristics — like value. By some measures, value stocks have underperformed for two decades. In a paper only for clients, but obtained by Institutional Investor, PanAgora addressed the odd behavior of low vol stocks within the Standard & Poor’s 500 index in the early part of the Covid-19 meltdown. It also examined how the pandemic has differed from prior crises and how these anomalies affected the performance of low vol equity strategies.
Brief: More than half of financial services companies plan to accelerate implementation of their next generation technology strategies, according to a new global survey of 500 financial services C-Suite executives and their direct reports released today by Broadridge Financial Solutions, a global fintech leader. “Financial services players have shown they can adapt and change during the pandemic. Going forward, they will continue to drive digitisation and mutualisation to improve client experience, resiliency, and cost,” says Tim Gokey, CEO of Broadridge. “Prior investments in digital, cloud, and mutualised technologies have enabled companies to be more resilient during the crisis, and executives are taking careful note as they plan for the future.” Virtually all financial services companies expect the pandemic to affect their operating model and strategy toward next-generation technology… The pandemic has also changed the role of fintech service providers, with 70 per cent of respondents stating that fintech providers’ ability to offer innovative uses of next-generation technology is now more important as a result of the outbreak. Almost half of respondents agree that the pandemic increased the need to mutualise – in other words, share or outsource – processing functions to reduce costs and increase resiliency.
Brief: A lot has changed in a month.Just four weeks ago the II Fear Index recorded themost optimistic views yetfrom institutional investors, who were feeling ever more upbeat about the economy’s trajectory as they grew less concerned about the spread of Covid-19.Since then, sentiment has reversed sharply, with asset managers and allocators polled this week fearing a major resurgence of coronavirus infections and sharing mounting pessimism about their countries’ economic prospects. This week’s survey, which had 139 respondents, found that nearly 70 percent were more concerned about a new spike in Covid-19 cases than they werethree weeks ago, including 33 percent who reported that they were “much more concerned.” Three weeks ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had reported a daily increase of about 28,000 coronavirus cases in the U.S. On Monday — the last day responses were accepted for this week’s Fear Index — the number of new confirmed cases passed 44,000. Investor concerns over the increasing rate of infection in the U.S. have been reflected over the last few surveys, with respondent priorities seen shifting back to public health over economic stability. This week, 57 percent said governments should be focusing on health, compared to 43 percent who thought political leaders should prioritize economic issues.
Brief: Lansdowne Partners is shutting its main hedge fund in a shift away from short-selling after being hit by some of its worst-ever losses. The London-based investment firm is closing the $2.8 billion Lansdowne Developed Markets Fund, according to a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. Clients can withdraw their money or move it into the Lansdowne Developed Markets Long Only Fund or a new LDM Opportunities Fund, which will invest in early-stage companies. The firm will continue to bet against companies in some of its other funds. A spokesman for Lansdowne Partners declined to comment. The move marks a dramatic retreat by one of the world’s most famous equity long/short hedge funds, and comes after poor performance in both rising and falling markets. The firm’s main hedge fund is run by Peter Davies and Jonathon Regis and tumbled 13% in March’s rout, the biggest monthly decline since it started trading almost two decades ago. It was down 23.3% in the first half of the year, according to another letter to investors. Years of poor returns have led to outflows from the firm, with its assets dropping to $9.8 billion in June from a peak of nearly $22 billion in 2015.
Brief: Sloane Robinson is closing as it struggles to raise enough capital, joining a string of high-profile hedge funds to shutter in recent years. The firm, which began investing in 1994, will shut at the end of 2020 and wind down its Global Opportunities and Global Compounder portfolios, according to a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. David Gale, chief executive officer of the London-based investment firm, declined to comment beyond the letter. “Despite strong investment performance amidst difficult market conditions, we have not succeeded in acquiring the required assets to support this franchise and the partnership remains dependent on revenue from the legacy funds of the founding partners,” the firm told investors in the letter dated Monday. Sloane Robinson, which was founded by Hugh Sloane and George Robinson and specializes in emerging and Asian markets equities trading, managed more than $10 billion at its peak prior to the 2008 financial crisis, but assets dropped sharply in recent years. In 2012, the firm restructured its business and investment-management team. It’s the latest victim of a tough money-raising environment by hedge funds. For much of the past decade, investors have revolted over high fees and lackluster returns. Clients have pulled more than $130 billion since the start of last year, according to data compiled by eVestment, and hedge fund liquidations in the first quarter jumped to the highest level in more than four years.
Brief: Private equity investors and bankers say they have seen deal activity start to slowly pick up in recent weeks after the coronavirus pandemic virtually stalled activity for more than three months. “There is a tangible change in the market sentiment,” said Daniel Connolly, managing director and co-head of mergers and acquisitions at William Blair & Co. “Most think there is an opportunistic window between now and the elections to buy and sell quality assets.” Investors are pushing deals closer to the finish line partly by modifying due diligence processes, pitching deals to only a limited number of reliable prospective buyers and buying minority stakes rather than control positions, several investment bankers, general partners and investment advisers told PEN sister titleWSJ Pro Private Equity. Some investors predict that deal activity will be buoyed as more firms report second quarter results, which will more accurately reflect the impact of the economic downturn. “That will help price the deals,” Connolly said. Michael Butler, chairman and chief executive of Seattle-based mid-market investment bank Cascadia Capital, said that buyers and sellers are reviewing deals in health care, technology, food and agricultural products, business services and some industrial sectors.
Brief: A hedge fund said to be closing up shop, a former fund manager’s family office, and a venture capital fund launched in 2015 are among the thousands of businesses listed as recipients of loans through the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program. On Monday, the Small Business Administration made public a list of the more than 660,000 companies that received a loan larger than $150,000 through the program, which is intended to help businesses keep people employed during the coronavirus pandemic. If a company meets certain eligibility standards, part, or all, of the loan will be forgiven. The loans also carry a one percent interest rate, according to theSBA’s website. Some firms listed in the SBA’s data have called its accuracy into question, however. Electric scooter company Bird shared on Twitter that it was “erroneously” listed among loan recipients. According to Bird, the firm neither applied for nor received a PPP loan. One firm contacted byInstitutional Investor for this story experienced a similar issue: its CEO said via email Monday that the firm did not receive a PPP loan, despite being listed in the data. And three other firms listed in an earlier version of the story that did not respond to a request for comment or could not be reached for comment subsequently responded to say that they, too, had been listed in error.
Brief: Brevan Howard Asset Management’s flagship macro hedge fund lost 0.6% in June, suffering back-to-back monthly losses and giving up some of its record gains from March. The decline follows a 0.9% loss in the $3.8 billion Brevan Howard Master Fund in May, according to letters to investors seen by Bloomberg. Preliminary estimates from Eurekahedge show that macro hedge fund peers made money, on average, in both months. A spokesman for the Jersey-based investment firm declined to comment on the performance. Macro hedge funds, which bet on economic trends, have generally bounced back this year amid coronavirus-induced market volatility. Traders have been able to exploit big swings in bond and currency markets to make money. Brevan’s decline still puts its flagship fund up 21.3% in the first half of the year, according to one of the letters. If that return is maintained for the full year, it would beat all bar one annual return since the fund was launched in 2003. The firm, co-founded by billionaire Alan Howard, is rebounding from years of mediocre performance in its macro hedge fund. The master fund surged by 18.3% during the market turmoil in March, its best monthly gain, driven by interest rate trading across directional, volatility and relative value strategies in a range of different markets.
Brief: Marto Capital — aformer wunderkindfounded by an ex-Bridgewater Associates star — got approved for emergency funds from the U.S. government, records showed Monday. Katina Stefanova’s New York City-based firm would have received between $150,000 and $350,000 in potentially forgivable loans under the Paycheck Protection Program, which aims to help save small businesses hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. Marto did not confirm or comment on the loan.Notably, Marto retained zero jobs with the funds, according to the released data. Signature Bank approved its application April 28, per the official records.But it’s not clear what Marto Capital’s business actually is, or if it plans to repay any money received. Martogave upits active status with the industry’s main U.S. regulatory bodies. On its website, the company calls itself a “new age investment company.” Founded as a hedge fund firm in 2015, Marto attracted hundreds of millions in capital from brand-name seeding firms including PAAMCO Prisma. Stefanova became a sparkling face in the investment industry, running what many saw as a spin-out from one of the world’s most successful hedge funds, Bridgewater.
Brief: The surge in coronavirus cases has bond ETF investors dumping their riskier holdings in favor of the safety of U.S. government debt. Over $2.6 billion exited from junk-bond exchange-traded funds last week, in addition to the $5.6 billion that fled from high-yield mutual funds. The $11 billion SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)’s $746 million outflow led the way, followed by a $609 million withdrawal from the $27 billion iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG). On the other end of the risk spectrum, Treasury-focused funds were a clear beneficiary of the renewed haven demand. BlackRock Inc.’s $22 billion iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) posted a weekly inflow of over $2 billion -- the largest since January 2019 -- while the $4.2 billion SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) absorbed $1.8 billion. The rotation into higher-quality debt shows investors are taking a “pause for breath” as policy makers grapple with a balance between containing the spreading virus and resuming economic activity, according to Principal Global Investors. “In that environment, many investors would prefer to be out of riskier assets and find more solace in investment grade and sovereign debt, and will wait for a good opportunity to rebuild their risk positions at a better price,” said Seema Shah, Principal’s chief strategist.
Brief: The world’s biggest asset manager is betting that some of the Asian markets that are closely tied to China’s recovery and have policy headroom will outperform peers over the next year. BlackRock Inc., which oversees $6.47 trillion in global assets, expects stocks and bonds in China, and its trading partners such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, will do better than global emerging markets over the next six to 12 months, according to Ben Powell, chief investment strategist for Asia Pacific at the firm. These countries have policy capability to do more if necessary and have a more direct exposure to the Chinese economy, which looks to be recovering quite well, Powell said in an interview. “Economies that are geared into that combination of policy, China’s recovery” and strong tech will do relatively better, he added. A variety of economic data out of the mainland have shown momentum of an economic rebound from coronavirus shutdowns. Profits of Chinese industrial enterprises rose in May for the first time since November while vehicle sales grew for a third straight month in June. That bodes well for China’s top trading partners in the region including Japan and Korea.
Brief: Hedge funds have emerged as the top pick among asset allocators heading into the second half of 2020, outflanking other products such as private equity and real estate as investors’ asset-class-of-choice, according to new data from Credit Suisse, which showed hedge funds have met or exceeded the expectations of some two-thirds of investors so far in 2020. The bank’s 2020 Mid-Year Hedge Fund Investor Survey – titled ‘Navigating Unchartered Waters’ – probed evolving allocator appetite, surveying some 160 institutional investors during May and June, collectively representing around USD450 billion in hedge fund investments globally. The wide-ranging study quizzed a broad mix of pension funds, endowments, family offices, insurers, funds of funds, advisors, consultants and more on their allocations, redemptions, and strategy appetite, among other things. The findings show that hedge funds are drawing the highest net demand among the various asset classes surveyed by Credit Suisse, with 32 per cent of investors set to increase their allocations to the product.
Brief: The giants of Wall Street and European banking are giving up their stronghold on London. In the coming months alone, Barclays Plc may ditch its investment bank’s headquarters in the capital; Credit Suisse Group AG is offloading nine floors of office space; and Morgan Stanley is reviewing its entire London footprint. And all of those moves were planned before the coronavirus hit. Now, with thousands of job cuts likely to follow what’s forecast to be the worst recession in three centuries, the tenants of the glass and steel towers that dominate the City of London and Canary Wharf may face an even bigger retreat. “Larger banks are clearly a higher risk for landlords,” said Rogier Quirijns, head of European real estate at Cohen & Steers Inc., who oversees more than $2 billion of property funds. “For London, there are the threats of recession and a possible no-deal Brexit to deal with, and I expect Covid-19 will most likely accelerate those risks.” The pandemic has given banks further impetus to downsize and preserve cash after already spending a decade quietly offloading space as jobs vanished in the wake of the financial crisis. In the past nine years, their London footprint has been slashed by about six million square feet -- or the equivalent of a dozen Gherkin skyscrapers, according to broker CBRE Group Inc.
Brief: The world economy is entering the second half of 2020 still deeply weighed down by the coronavirus pandemic with a full recovery now ruled-out for this year and even a 2021 comeback dependent on a lot going right. It’s a scenario few if any predicted at the start of the year when most economists were banking on another year of expansion and a U.S. and China trade agreement was meant to give corporate and investor confidence a shot in the arm. Instead, the rare pandemic forced swathes of the global population into what the International Monetary Fund dubs ‘The Great Lockdown.’ Central banks and governments responded with trillions of dollars in unprecedented support to prevent markets from melting down and to keep furloughed workers and struggling companies afloat until the virus passed. Even with those rescue efforts, the world is still suffering its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. While some gauges of manufacturing and retail sales in major economies are showing improvement, hopes for a V-shaped rebound have been shattered as the reopening of businesses looks shaky at best and job losses risk turning from temporary to permanent. It’s an economic trajectory Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin has likened to riding the elevator down, but needing to take the stairs back up.
Brief: While COVID-19 has made remote working a necessity for many government employees, it does not appear that COVID-19 has done anything to slow down government enforcement regarding money laundering.TheU.S. Securities and Exchange Commissionstated in its Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations 2020 examination priorities,[1] that Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering compliance remains a priority. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been significant actions by U.S. regulators this year against individuals and companies for money laundering activities, demonstrating a continued focus on AML enforcement. We expect that U.S. authorities will continue to make AML compliance, and specifically risk-based compliance, a priority.Recent AML compliance and enforcement efforts have taken account of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in some recent actions. In the last few months, the government has issued guidance on risks based on the COVID-19 pandemic from multiple enforcement agencies.TheFinancial Crimes Enforcement Networkissued guidance that provides institutions with some relief related to the administrative aspects of AML regulatory compliance, but does not excuse failures to take the required steps, and, indeed, puts institutions on notice of certain heightened money laundering risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Brief: Stock-picking hedge funds led by Chase Coleman, Philippe Laffont and Andreas Halversen notched double-digit gains in the first half, beating turbulent equity markets amid the coronavirus pandemic. Tiger Global Management, run by founder Coleman, has climbed roughly 17% this year in its flagship hedge fund, according to people with knowledge of the matter. It was up about 6.5% in June, said the people, asking not to be named because the information is private. Meanwhile, Halvorsen’s Viking Global Investors rose 2% in its hedge fund in June, bringing this year’s returns to 11%, according to another person. Laffont’s technology-focused Coatue Management surged 8.6% last month through June 26, extending gains for the year to 19%, a separate person said. That outpaced the gains of the Nasdaq 100 Index, which rose 16% in the first six months. After falling 20% in the first quarter, stocks soared 20% in the second quarter, the most since 1998, as the Federal Reserve offered unprecedented market support. But while U.S. consumer confidence rose in June by more than forecast, hopes of a quick economic recovery have been shaken by the increase in Covid-19 cases across the nation. The managers share a common background. They are all so-called Tiger Cubs, the term for alumni of legendary stock-picker Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management who went on to start their own hedge firms.
Brief: Environmental, social and governance factors will become more important as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, say asset owners. Speaking during a virtual discussion Thursday organized and hosted by Bloomberg, panelists considered the investment implications of the COVID-19 outbreak on regions, assets and investments. While ESG has been a theme in investment for some time, the accommodation and help provided by governments to companies around the world means there is an "expectation that these companies will … be good corporate citizens and repay society in some way," said Morten Nilsson, CEO at BT Pension Scheme Management, which manages the assets of the £52.2 billion ($64.4 billion) BT Pension Scheme, London. Moves toward enhanced corporate responsibility have already been made, but due to the "bold" and "extreme" responses from governments in helping businesses, "I think that pressure will only increase," Mr. Nilsson said.
Brief: Wall Street is moving some bets on COVID-19 vaccines to large pharmaceutical companies with robust manufacturing capabilities, signaling that a love affair with small biotech firms might be ending after the sector’s best quarter in almost 20 years. Early signs of the shift came Wednesday, when positive data for one of Pfizer Inc’s (PFE.N) COVID-19 vaccine candidates sent shares of the large U.S. drugmaker up more than 3%. Shares of its partner on the vaccine, Germany’s BioNTech SE (22UAy.F), have been flat on the data. Although the news had little effect on shares of Pfizer’s large rivals in the vaccine race, smaller peers Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) and Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (INO.O), both of which have previously shown promising COVID-19 data of their own, ended down more than 4% and 25%, respectively. Inovio partially rebounded Thursday.For the week so far, shares of bigger players in the vaccine race, such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Merck (MRK.N), have also outperformed Inovio and Moderna.Some of the selling was likely driven by end-of-quarter profit-taking, locking in dizzying gains in an otherwise turbulent market. Moderna and Inovio shares have risen nearly 200 percent and 540 percent in the year-to-date, respectively, greatly eclipsing gains for large pharmaceutical companies.
Brief: World shares stalled near a four-month high on Friday and the industrial bellwether metal copper scuffed its longest weekly winning streak in nearly three years, as nagging coronavirus nerves tempered the recent recovery run. The market rally, fuelled by Thursday’s record U.S. jobs numbers, largely blew itself out after a record daily total of new U.S. COVID-19 cases, though news of the fastest expansion in China’s services sector in over a decade kept Asia’s tail up early in the day.Chinese shares had charged to their highest level in five years [.SS], helping the pan-Asian indexes to four-month peaks, so the sight of European markets stalling left traders floundering, especially with no Wall Street to pick things up again because of a U.S. market holiday. [.EU]Currency and commodity markets were also subdued after an otherwise strong week for confidence-sensitive stalwarts such oil, copper, sterling and the Australian dollar, which all struggled on Friday.More than three dozen U.S. states are now seeing increases in COVID-19 cases, including Florida, where they have leapt above 10,000 a day. And while Europe is largely easing restrictions, some places are having to keep them or reimpose them again.
Brief: Reopening businesses has started in many states and cities across the country. For people who have been working from home, some are chomping at the bit to get out of the house. Others, however, are not psyched. So far, the forced work-from-home framework many companies have been forced to implement has been largely seen as a success by many businesses and workers, some of which have decided to allow more widespread remote work, like Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), and Square (SQ). Most people have been able to get the job done from home. Whether it’s better or not is another story. Just over half of people (51%) who have been working from home think it’s better, according to arecent survey from Yahoo Finance-HarrisPoll, while 30% say it’s worse. Some surveys have shown even more optimism. According to Korn Ferry, almosttwo-thirdsof its survey respondents said they are more productive from home… Companies like JPMorgan Chase in New York have been considering their reopening plans for their massive offices in Midtown Manhattan. In a memo to employees, the bank said that it's time to go back in and plan to start on July 13, though some employees returned on June 22. The company is bringing back employees in waves and expects to be at around 20% occupancy until Labor Day. The idea is to go slow and figure things out for a larger fall return. Bank of America said Thursday it plans to bringemployees back to officesin phases after Labor Day.
Brief: So far in 2020, the multistrategy hedge fund firm is earning that title. Citadel’s flagship Wellington fund was up 11.4 percent for the year through May, according to a person familiar with the fund, extending its win streak after delivering a19 percent gainin 2019. Multistrategy funds as a whole fared much worse, according to HFR, which reported losses ranging from 1.73 percent to 2.45 percent across its multistrategy indices. Across all strategies, hedge funds tracked by HFR were down 6.56 percent through April as the coronavirus pandemic rattled markets. At the end of May — the most recently available returns from the data provider — hedge funds were still down about five percent for the year. It’s a very different result from 2019, when hedge funds as an industry delivered double-digit returns amid soaring stock markets. The winners ofInstitutional Investor’s2020 Hedge Fund Industry Awardswere nominated on the basis of their strong performances in 2019 — but 2020 has proven more challenging.
Brief: Just over a decade after John Paulson shot to fame and fortune, he's become the latest big-name money manager to quit the hedge-fund business, saying this week he's converting his firm into a family office. Paulson never managed to sustain the success and notoriety he found by betting against the housing market in the run up to the last financial crisis. Now, in the midst of an another period of economic turmoil, he's returning outside investors' money to focus on his own fortune, which the Bloomberg Billionaires Index puts at $US4.4 billion ($6.4 billion). He joins a list of industry legends who have recently called it quits amid a generational shift. Louis Bacon said in the past year that he was stepping back, as returns that were once routinely in the double digits dribbled away. David Tepper also said he was transitioning his firm, though he planned to keep a few outside clients. Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros, two legends of the 1990s, were among the first to switch to the family office model. The move also underscores the wider tumult in the investing world, where fund managers who for decades bestrode Wall Street as revered money makers find themselves struggling to compete with computer-driven, index-tracking funds that closely follow seemingly ever-rising markets at a fraction of the cost of traditional offerings.
Brief: U.S. equity funds that were able to best weather the global economic upheaval from the coronavirus pandemic this year are turning to healthcare, e-commerce and electric vehicle stocks as they look ahead to 2021. Few expect a quick economic recovery or containment of the virus that would allow a widespread return to office buildings and schools. Instead, top-performing fund managers say they are positioning their portfolios to benefit from an increase in new forms of technology as businesses and consumers change their habits amid a lingering pandemic. “It’s depressing to see the data that among the developed world, we’re having the worst situation, but we’re looking for the big industry trends that will persist no matter how long (COVID-19) goes on and will continue afterwards,” said Michael Lippert, whose Baron Opportunity fund is up 30.7% for the year to date. As a result, Lippert has been buying shares of warehouse company Rexford Industrial Reality Inc as a play on the growth of ecommerce and data, and cybersecurity firm Splunk Inc in anticipation that remote work will persist well into next year. Shares of Rexford are down nearly 10% in the year to date, while shares of Splunk are up nearly 33%.
Brief: Even inside battle-scarred KKR & Co., entering the political fray was enough to stoke unease. As several of the private equity titan’s portfolio companies got loans from an emergency U.S. program aimed at helping small businesses survive the coronavirus pandemic, executives at the firm’s New York headquarters issued a blunt message: Return the money to taxpayers. Yet across the cash-rich private equity world, many firms pushed ahead, benefiting from the $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program run by the Small Business Administration and Treasury Department, according to lawyers and lenders with knowledge of the strategies. Now, some of those firms face the prospect of tough public scrutiny, as the Trump administration acquiesces to pressure from lawmakers to name borrowers who drew potentially forgivable loans from taxpayers. After the government broadly excluded private equity firms from the program, dozens found ways to steer around the restrictions, often adjusting governance or ownership arrangements with portfolio companies in sectors including entertainment, fitness, sports and dermatology, the people said, asking not to be named discussing confidential arrangements.
Brief: Recent central bank actions mean capital markets are no longer “free,” according to Bridgewater Associates’s Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund. “Today the economy and the markets are driven by the central banks and the coordination with the central government,” said Dalio, speaking at the Bloomberg Global Asset Owners Forum on Thursday. As a result, “capital markets are not free markets allocating resources in traditional ways.” The Covid-19 pandemic brought economic activity to a standstill and sent markets spiraling downward in March. The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented multi-trillion dollar response eased concerns and helped fuel a shock recovery in financial markets even as the U.S. economy continues to struggle. Dalio said the U.S. now has the worst wealth gap since the 1930s, adding that central banks will need to continue to pump money into the economy. “You’re going to see central bank balance sheets explode, they have to because the choice is the sinking ship,” he said. Dalio also said that investors should favor stocks and gold over bonds and cash because the latter offer a negative rate of return and central banks will print more money.
Brief: Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach believes a quick economic recovery is "highly optimistic" — and probably not even plausible given that a rebound to pre-coronavirus levels will take at least a year to materialize. Themarket’s powerful surgefrom its March lows has been propelled in part by investor expectations of a rapid“V-shaped” rebound, especially as coronavirus lockdowns get eased. However, Gundlach told Yahoo Finance in an interview that scenario is unlikely for a number of reasons. "I think that whatever the consensus is on the so-called shape of the recovery, I'm taking the under," the CEO of $135 billion DoubleLine Capital, said on Wednesday. According to Gundlach, a sharp recovery from asteep, depression-like plunge "basically implies is that you can take 20% of the entire workforce...[and] put them on unemployment benefits, have them produce nothing,” the investor said, referring to the staggering post-lockdown job losses. To date,nearly 50 million peoplehave filed jobless claims in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis.
Brief: Portfolio hedges aren’t insurance, Ari Bergmann wants to point out. Bergmann created some of the first derivatives while at Bankers Trust in the 1990s, and he is passionate that tail hedge managers are shooting themselves in the foot by trying to get investors to see the strategies as insurance with a small annual cost. “If you make money on insurance, you are an arsonist,” he said. During an interview, Bergmann, who founded Penso Advisors in 2010 to provide risk mitigation strategies, got on a roll. “Why do you need insurance? The market came back. That tells you that you don’t need insurance. Insurance doesn’t help. Between the Federal Reserve and the government, you have the best insurance. That’s for free and the taxpayers are paying you.” Brevan Howard owns a minority stake in Penso. Tail-risk hedging funds are designed to profit from rare episodes like the global financial crisis or March’s Covid Crash. They took off in 2008 as they generated profits even as stock and bond markets fell around the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan, which argued that unexpected events are more common than most people think, gave these hedge funds added tail wind.
Brief: Hedge fund liquidations in the first quarter jumped to the highest level in more than four years as the coronavirus pandemic triggered sharp losses across global markets. About 304 funds shuttered in the first three months of the year, the most since the fourth quarter of 2015, according to a Hedge Fund Research Inc. report released Tuesday. That represents an increase of more than 50% from the 198 liquidations in the last quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, about 84 hedge funds opened in the three-month period, the lowest quarterly estimate since the financial crisis, when startups totaled 56 in the fourth quarter of 2008. Closures have exceeded launches for seven consecutive quarters, according to HFR. Hedge funds have faced a tough money-raising environment for much of the last decade as investors revolted over high fees and lackluster returns. Now startups are dealing with the turmoil caused by lockdown restrictions and social distancing efforts designed to combat the Covid-19 crisis. But things may be turning around as institutional investors gear up for a return to choppy markets. A Credit Suisse Group AG report issued this week found that net demand for hedge funds was at its highest in at least five years going into the second half of 2020.
Brief: A federal face mask mandate would not only cut the daily growth rate of new confirmed cases of Covid-19, but could also save the U.S. economy from taking a 5% GDP hit in lieu of additional lockdowns, according to Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, said his team investigated the link between face masks and Covid-19 health and economic outcomes and found that facial coverings are associated with sizable and statistically significant results. “We find that face masks are associated with significantly better coronavirus outcomes,” Hatzius wrote in a note to clients. “Our baseline estimate is that a national mandate could raise the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 [percentage points] and cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0 [percentage point] to 0.6%... He first focused on to what extent, if at all, the actual use of face masks reduces the infection rate of Covid-19 by looking at differences in population behavior by state. For example, Hatizus found only about 40% of respondents in Arizona say they “always” wear face masks in public, compared with nearly 80% in Massachusetts.
Brief: Hedge funds are back in demand as institutional investors including pensions and endowments gear up for a return to choppy markets. Investors are favoring hedge funds heading into the second half of the year, with the industry garnering the most interest among 10 major asset classes, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG report released this week. Net demand, or the percentage of respondents increasing allocations minus the proportion decreasing them, is the highest in at least five years at 32%, the data show. “Given manager performance and the wider return dispersion we’re seeing, this is an environment where hedge funds can shine and separate themselves from the pack,” Joseph Gasparro, who helps hedge funds build capital as head of Americas capital services content at Credit Suisse, said in a telephone interview. “The incredible run-up in equities from late March to early June, the ‘easy money’ if you will, is likely not going to repeat. The environment going forward will include more uncertainties, with investors relying on hedge funds to help navigate.” Hedge funds have largely held their own as the spread of the coronavirus pandemic halted the global economy, ending Wall Street’s longest-ever bull market and seizing up credit markets…
Brief: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Handler, fresh off the firm’s record quarterly revenue from trading bonds despite the challenges of working remotely, is taking pressure off his traders and bankers to return to the office anytime soon. “I am in awe of how our people became a virtual firm within days of learning about Covid,” Handler said in a phone interview Monday after posting results for the fiscal second quarter. “Our people will work from home until they feel safe coming back.” Handler is emphasizing flexibility a week after larger rivals including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. began recalling the first waves of employees to their towers. His New York-based investment bank lost its longtime chief financial officer, Peg Broadbent, from coronavirus complications in the early weeks of shutdown that forced much of the industry to work at home. “While we all want to come back,” Handler said, “no one is under pressure to come back immediately.” The firm’s fixed-income and equity traders brought in $730 million in the three months ended May 31, almost double the amount a year earlier.
Brief: Players in the direct lending market are sharpening their focus on portfolios, as companies battered by the coronavirus pandemic call on their creditors for help and concerns over deal structures intensify. The pandemic hit following years of growth in the direct lending asset class. A May report by Preqin said the asset class has been "the success story of the decade" in North America, with assets growing to $222 billion as of June 2019, compared with $85 billion at the end of 2007. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, could lead to the asset class falling "out of favor," with opportunities set to be focused on distressed debt and other strategies. "Direct lending is likely to become more attractive during a recovery period, as companies seek financing to get back on their feet," the report said. In Europe, direct lending deal volumes are expected to be less healthy than last year, Deloitte LLP said in its Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2020 report. Deals totaled 484 in 2019, a 13.1% increase on 2018 numbers. European direct lenders raised the equivalent of $32.8 billion in capital to deploy, topping the previous record of $27 billion in 2017.
Brief: More than $8 billion is on the move in Charles Schwab Corp.’s exchange-traded funds, stirring speculation the firm could be adjusting the packaged strategies it offers clients as markets gyrate amid the pandemic. Over the past seven trading days, $4.6 billion has exited from a group of four ETFs including Schwab’s fundamental equity and intermediate-maturity Treasury funds. The firm’s emerging-market equity and inflation-focused bond offerings were among four products to rake in $3.9 billion at the same time. Schwab is the biggest holder of all of the funds, according to the latest available filings. The size of the flows -- more than half of the funds posted at least one record daily flow in the period -- and the broad range of ETFs involved is stirring speculation that Schwab is shifting exposure in its model portfolios. Such prefabricated packages of ETFs offer a one-stop solution to a client’s investment needs. Instead of spending time selecting individual funds, investors can pick a portfolio aligned with their goals and risk tolerance. It’s unclear how much cash follows such models, but it’s thought that when one makes a strategic shift, billions of dollars can move between ETFs.
There is a significant risk that the policy response to the coronavirus crisis in the United States could be scaled back too soon, BlackRock Investment Institute’s global chief investment strategist Mike Pyle said on Monday. Pyle said that although there had been a strong U.S. fiscal and monetary policy response to COVID-19, there were concerns about the outlook. “There are significant risks around the U.S. retrenching (policy support) too soon,” he said during a presentation on the BlackRock Investment Institute’s mid-year outlook. Pyle said the firm was cautious on emerging markets because of a reduced capacity on the policy front to respond to the coronavirus shock compared with more developed economies, as well as a challenging public health dimension, especially in Latin America. Scott Thiel, chief fixed income strategist at the BII, said emerging markets also faced a greater risk of a policy mistake.
Brief:One of the largest financial market dislocations of the Covid-19 era has generated big gains for hedge funds that bet the turmoil would prove short-lived. The winning trades involved dividend futures, which derive their value from shareholder payouts by companies in benchmark stock indexes. Historically among the most stable of equity-linked investments, the securities have swung even more wildly than share prices over the past three months. One of the most heavily traded contracts in Europe tumbled almost 60% in March as a spate of dividend cuts spooked investors and banks dumped futures to hedge exposures at their structured product units. While firms including BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and Natixis SA lost money on their positions in the first quarter, the sell-off created buying opportunities for a clutch of bargain hunters. Ovata Capital Management, Oasis Management Co., York Capital Management and AM Squared Ltd. all scored double-digit returns on dividend futures as the securities snapped back from the March rout, buoyed by unprecedented government stimulus. The bets have helped the funds post year-to-date gains, bucking a 5% slump through May for the Bloomberg All Hedge Fund Index.
Brief: Real estate consultants and some investors are considering pressing pause on certain investments as the COVID-19 health-care crisis and recession batter the asset class. One Los Angeles-based pension fund has paused some real estate investments in part due to concerns around the valuation of properties. On June 23, the Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System's board adopted a fiscal year 2021 real estate plan. Recommended by its consultant, Townsend Group, the plan said that whenever possible the $18 billion pension fund should halt new commitments to open- and closed-end funds with pre-specified portfolios as well as pause in funding recent open-end investment commitments because these assets' carrying value may not reflect current, lower market values. LACERS has a 7% target allocation to real estate and $777 million invested in that asset class. The pandemic has already rocked the real estate industry. Open-end fund redemption queues are elevated at roughly $14.4 billion, doubled since Dec. 31, the Townsend report to LACERS said.
Brief: Fast-money hedge funds are rushing to cover their bearish U.S. stock bets even as the equity rally threatens to break down. Speculative investors bought a net 206,227 S&P 500 Index E-mini contracts in the week to June 23, the most since 2007, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Net short positions in the contracts were at their highest in almost a decade as the U.S. equity rebound pushed the benchmark back toward record territory. The surge in short-covering comes as traders wrestle with what to do after a pause in one of the most unloved rallies in recent financial history. The S&P 500 had climbed more that 40% from its late-March low to early June, despite concerns that investors were over-optimistic about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery. U.S. stocks fell almost 3% last week as the coronavirus spread showed no signs of slowing down. Other measures of trader positioning also point to an increase in short-covering activity. Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding in the $266 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust had fallen to 4.9% Friday from 6.7% at the end of May, according to data from IHS Markit.
Brief: Knighthead Capital Management and private equity firm Certares Management are raising $1 billion for a new fund that would seek to capitalize on a rebound in travel businesses disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to people with knowledge of the plan. Knighthead, the investment company led by co-founder Tom Wagner, will be equal partners with Certares in the venture, said the people, who asked not to be named because the plans aren’t public. The fund would take about 10 to 15 debt and equity positions over a five-year period. Representatives for Knighthead and Certares, both based in New York, declined to comment. Knighthead is one of several funds seeking to take advantage of market distortions caused by the pandemic, which caused governments worldwide to suspend travel and order residents to stay at home to fight the virus. The amount of travel-related debt trading at distressed levels swelled amid the lockdowns. For companies in the Americas alone, distressed debt issued by airlines, hotels and leisure and transportation businesses has increased more than five-fold to $28 billion since early March, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Knighthead, which has around $4.1 billion in assets under management, specializes in event-driven distressed credit and special situations across a broad array of industries.
Brief: As established managers and mega funds increasingly dominate the private capital industry, certain investor protections may be becoming less common. This includes no-fault divorce clauses, according to Preqin’s 2020 report on private capital fund terms. These provisions allow limited partners to remove and replace their general partner or terminate their limited partner agreement, even if the situation is not covered in the terms of the agreement. Such clauses are considered “critical” by many limited partners, according to a recent survey by the Institutional Limited Partners Association. “While only 25 percent of respondents have experienced a GP removal within the last five years, ILPA members consider no-fault removal provisions to be an essential investor protection worth fighting for,” the group said in a report on the findings. “Whereas for-cause removal provisions can only be triggered by an unattainably high bar, no-fault provisions are more straightforward to execute and serve as a guaranteed forcing mechanism in cases of egregious mismanagement or behavior.” According to the ILPA survey, 62 percent of group members had these provisions in place for at least half of the funds they invested with last year, while 37 percent had no-divorce clauses in more than 75 percent of the funds they allocated to.
Wall Street’s major indexes dropped on Friday as the United States set a new record for a one-day increase in coronavirus cases and bank stocks fell following the Federal Reserve’s move to cap shareholder payouts. The S&P 500 banks sub-index declined 3.9% after the Fed limited dividend payments and barred share repurchases until at least the fourth quarter following its annual stress test. In the previous session, banks stocks had powered Wall Street’s main indexes higher, helping them offset investor fears due to rising virus infections in several U.S. states, including Texas, Oregon and Utah. Cases rose across the United States by at least 39,818 on Thursday. Texas, which has been at the forefront of easing restrictions, paused its reopening plans after the state recorded its one of the biggest jumps in new infections. The uptick in cases has also threatened to derail a strong rally for Wall Street that brought the S&P 500 within 9% of its February all-time high on the back of record government stimulus measures.
Brief: A credit crunch is hitting many indebted companies, and Apollo Global Management Inc never had it so good. The private equity firm’s shares hit an all-time high earlier this month, outperforming its peers, as investors bet it can invest its $40 billion of unspent capital in cash-strapped companies that are struggling in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Central banks and governments around the world have unveiled a raft of credit support and economic programs to help businesses. However, aid is often limited for companies with weak credit ratings, driving many of them into the arms of Apollo and other private equity firms. Since the onset of the crisis, Apollo has invested $1.2 billion alongside Silver Lake Partners in Expedia Group Inc, whose online booking business was hit hard by the coronavirus-induced stay-at-home orders and travel bans. Apollo also provided $250 million to U.S. pipeline operator NGL Energy Partners LP to refinance existing loan facilities. While other private equity firms, such as Blackstone Group Inc and Ares Management Corp, are also very active in this space and have seen their shares rally, Apollo’s stock has outperformed because of the New York-based firm’s record of capitalizing on such opportunities, analysts and investors have said.
Hotel owner and developer Danny Gaekwad survived steep drops in business after the 9/11 attacks and the recession of the late 2000s, but nothing prepared him for the revenue tailspin that followed lockdowns and travel restrictions in March to stop the spread of the new coronavirus. At one hotel, a Holiday Inn in Ocala, Florida’s horse country, revenue last April was $38,000, a drop of almost 90% from the previous April. His problems were compounded by the type of loan he took out for the hotel — a $13 million loan that was bought by Wall Street investors. Commercial mortgage-backed securities loans like the one Gaekwad has for the Holiday Inn are packaged in a trust. Investors then purchase bonds from the trust using properties like a hotel as collateral. The loans are attractive to borrowers because they typically offer lower rates and longer terms. About 20% of hotels across the U.S. use these loans and they represent close to a third of all debt in the hotel industry, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association. Unlike banks, which have been more flexible in renegotiating loan terms to help them through the tough times, hotel owners like Gaekwad say it has been much more difficult to get any forbearance from representatives of bondholders, and they worry that their businesses may not survive because of the lack of relief.
That’s “Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb offering his view on the risks swirling in the market and a growing lack of clarity about the future in the era of a deadly pandemic that has created a public-health and economic crisis. Speaking during an interview on CNBC on Friday, the popular author, shared the notion that investors should be hedged against so-called “tail risk,” which refers to extreme events that have a low probability of happening in a distribution of outcomes. Taleb has spent his career chronicling so-called “tail risk” events, which have a tiny probability of occurrence, but nonetheless take place more often than one would guess, and therefore often are underestimated by the broader investment community. Taleb said the current market landscape, perhaps, has amplified uncertainties, even if the stock market has been mostly rising, despite signs of a spreading COVID-19 pandemic that is re-intensifying in places and threatening to de-rail projections for a “V-shaped,” or quick, economic recovery. “We are printing money like there’s no tomorrow,” Taleb said, referencing the Federal Reserve’s efforts to ease the financial pain of the epidemic by delivering trillions of stimulus to the market. The Fed also cut interest rates to a super low range of 0% and 0.25% back in March, and may not have a lot of room to further ease the economic pain of the viral outbreak and other problems that could arise amid this crisis. “And COVID seems to be there even if the pandemic…dies down, you will still have people cautious enough that it will impact a lot of industries,” he said.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has written to the CEO of private equity lobbying group the American Investment Council demanding more information about the organization’s efforts related to the federal government’s multitrillion-dollar coronavirus relief law. In a letter to Andrew Maloney, which was delivered Wednesday and obtained by CNBC, Warren demanded information about the group’s communication with the Treasury Department and White House officials, including Jared Kushner, whose family real estate business has financial ties to private equity firm Apollo Global Management. She also questioned how the industry plans to protect the employees of the companies in which they invest. “I am particularly concerned that the private equity industry you represent may exploit this crisis to continue extracting value out of struggling companies, lining the pockets of wealthy firms at the expense of workers and communities struggling to respond to this pandemic across the country,” wrote the Massachusetts Democrat. In a statement given to CNBC through a spokesperson, Maloney said, “Senator Warren’s home state of Massachusetts is a booming private equity success story.” “Our industry employs over 240 [thousand] workers there, invested over $31 billion in 2019 alone, and recently delivered over 18% returns for the local pension program,” he noted.
Very few hedge funds are offering investors fee discounts during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new survey by Seward & Kissel. The law firm, which polled alternative investment firms about the impacts of Covid-19 on fundraising and remote work, found that less than 10 percent had granted investor-friendly concessions on fees, liquidity, or reporting terms. Roughly three-quarters of respondents managed hedge funds, while the rest ran closed-end vehicles such as private equity or real estate funds. Steve Nadel, partner at Seward & Kissel, suggested that managers may be “more reticent” to grant concessions given how quickly markets have bounced back. High demand for opportunistic strategies may also contribute to why managers don’t currently feel the need to lure investors with discounts and other perks. “With opportunistic structures, because they are bespoke and because they are limited capacity, it evens the playing field in favor of managers, because demand for a particular product is often going to exceed supply,” he said.
Brief: WestJet Airlines will permanently lay off more than 3,000 employees across the country as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic’s devastating effect on air travel demand.In avideo messageWednesday, CEO Ed Sims announced major organizational changes at the Calgary-based airline, including the consolidation of call centre activity in Calgary and the restructuring of office and management staff. In addition, airport operations at all domestic airports except Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto will be contracted out.The restructuring will result in 3,333 permanent job losses, including 430 call centre positions (72 in Calgary, 73 in Vancouver, 35 in Halifax, and 250 in Moncton, N.B.), as well as 2,300 airport operations staff, including customer service agents and baggage handlers. Sims said he is hopeful that whatever company WestJet ends up contracting out its airport operations to will ultimately be able to rehire many of the laid-off airport employees… For WestJet, which was acquired last year by Toronto-based Onex Corp. in a $5-billion friendly takeover deal, these are the most challenging circumstances it’s faced since the airline was founded in 1996, said Calgary-based aviation consultant Rick Erickson. Leisure travel has been squashed, although the public’s appetite for flying will return when the “fear factor” of catching the virus declines, he said.
Brief: Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of the world’s biggest hedge fund at Bridgewater Associates, said the impact of the coronavirus pandemic could last 18 to 24 months, complicating monetary and fiscal policy efforts to bolster the economy. “There’s a huge amount of uncertainty,” Prince, who helps manage the firm’s investment process alongside co-CIOs Ray Dalio and Greg Jensen, said Wednesday in an interview during the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual event. Bridgewater’s hedge fund has suffered losses this year amid the market chaos surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. The firm’s flagship Pure Alpha II fund fell 20% in 2020 through May. Bridgewater got hit by the crisis at “the worst possible moment,” when its portfolios were positioned to profit from rising markets, Dalio wrote in mid-March. The Westport, Connecticut-based firm saw a 15% drop in assets during March and April, declining to $138 billion. Bridgewater wasn’t alone in getting caught on the wrong side of a sell-off that began in late February. Several prominent names have stumbled as the spread of the pandemic halted the economy and put an end to Wall Street’s longest-ever bull run. But U.S. stocks have since defied initial gloomy expectations, rallying 37% since the March low, with stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the easing of lockdowns fueling hopes for a fast recovery.
Brief: Man Group chief executive Luke Ellis said that corporates could face stress testing after the Covid-19 pandemic, similar to those imposed on banks after the 2008 financial crisis. “There will be a drive to some form of stress testing of businesses, to make sure they have less operational gearing so that they are able to withstand things,” said the CEO of the world’s largest listed hedge funds company. Man Group manages $104.2bn as of March 31. Ellis was speaking at the Bloomberg Invest Global online forum. When asked what regulation might emerge from the current crisis, Ellis said that it would be “similar to what banks have, but not just around financial constraints”. Businesses could be required to limit the amounts of financial leverage — or debt — they can have, for instance. He also said that “just-in-time manufacturing” would have to be rethought: “It started as a good idea, reducing inventories, but got to a place where major manufacturers... had one hour of spare parts and supplies [...] which meant they couldn’t withstand any sort of shock at all.” “What we’ve seen that in the 10 years since the last crisis, [is that] an awful lot of the corporate community has moved to maximum leverage that they can possibly get onto their balance sheet — so maximum financial leverage but also maximum operational gearing and minimal resilience,” Ellis said during the webinar, which was focused on how funds, such as those managed by Man Group, can outperform in the age of Covid-19.
Brief: Brookfield Asset Management Inc., one of the world’s biggest real estate investors, is seeing higher demand for office space as workers return to socially-distanced buildings. Rather than ditching their skyscraper offices after the pandemic, companies are keen to return to the workplace after spending as long as three months in lockdown, Bruce Flatt, chief executive officer of Brookfield, said at the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual conference on Wednesday. “Today we’re leasing greater amounts of space to people than they had before,” Flatt said. “They want to accommodate their people and get them back quickly. They’re increasing their footprints versus taking less.” Most companies that Brookfield leases offices to are bringing workers back, said Flatt. The only reason some weren’t was a lack of social distancing space. Brookfield has reopened nearly all of its global offices, he said, with about 70 per cent of London workers returning and around 30 per cent of New York employees. Brookfield is well-positioned to weather the pandemic. Flatt last month said the company had US$46 billion in client commitments for new investments and US$15 billion in cash, other financial assets and long-dated credit facilities across its various businesses that remain largely undrawn.
Brief: Most asset managers have found video conferencing an effective alternative to interacting with clients now that the coronavirus pandemic has severely hampered the ability to meet with clients face-to-face, according to results of a survey by Cerulli Associates. While almost all (95%) of managers surveyed by Cerulli in April said that in-person meetings are the most effective way to interact with clients, travel restrictions brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic have prevented such interaction. So, with face-to-face meetings not being an option for most managers, 75% find conference calls or video conferences with clients a highly effective alternative method of communication since the outbreak of COVID-19, while 17% find them somewhat effective. "The amount of people that said video calls are effective could be a sign of a more long-term trend," said Cerulli analyst Christopher Swansey in a phone interview, noting that face-to-face meetings are still crucial for due diligence. "I don't think they'll be replaced, but I think you'll see a lot more meetings conducted virtually in the future…
Brief: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon still sees a V-shaped recovery ahead even as coronavirus cases are increasing throughout the US.It just might not bring the economy back to its pre-pandemic levels as quickly as hoped.Appearing in theBloomberg Invest Globalvirtual conference, Solomon said the US is "somewhere in the middle" of its turnaround. Just as economic activity nosedived in the second quarter, the CEO sees reopenings driving a similar turn higher through the end of the year."This crisis has had a profound impact on the economic environment that we're operating in," he said on Wednesday. "My guess is when you look at the shape of the recovery, the initial shape is going to look quite like a V." Solomon added that uncertainty still clouds such forecasts and second shocks could endanger the nation's long-term trajectory. The healthcare industry represents a major variable, as an effective coronavirus vaccine is largely viewed as the best bet for boosting consumer confidence. Human behavior can also deviate from expectations and either accelerate or halt reopening measures. These factors will likely slow the US economic bounce-back after 2020 and push a full rebound further down the road, Solomon said. "I do think we're going to see a sharp V to start with, but it's very open-ended as to what kind of economic friction we're going to see as we get through the end of the year and into 2021," the CEO said.
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