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Covid-19 Diligence Briefing

Our briefing for Monday August 10, 2020:

  • Over 97,000 students tested positive for COVID-19 in the U.S. during the last two weeks of July, according to a study by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association. The study directly contradicts President Donald Trump’s assertion that children are “almost immune” to the virus. In Florida, one of the hardest hit states, nearly 20 per cent of people tested have been confirmed positive, however, the majority of the state will be opening schools for in-person classes this week. The decision is being made despite recent reports of two teens dying from the virus in Florida last month.

  • Canada’s total number of COVID-19 cases has reached nearly 200,000 with total fatalities reaching almost 9,000. The country reported 195 new cases of the virus on Sunday along with 5 new deaths. The majority of new cases came from Quebec, the hardest hit province in Canada, where there have been 5,695 deaths recorded. Across Quebec protests have erupted with parents threatening legal action as schools are set to reopen in the upcoming months. In Canada, over 86 per cent of those who contracted the virus have since recovered and the number of new infections continues to decline.

  • In the United Kingdom officials are debating whether to continue with daily death toll announcements after Public Health England has come under scrutiny for their method of tracking new deaths from the virus. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has revealed that an investigation into the matter suggested that Public Health England was “exaggerating” the real number of fatalities. The country had paused its daily death toll announcements after academics had shown that agency had counted deaths from other causes. Officials are still debating whether to continue with daily updates or move to weekly updates in the future.

  • New Zealand has gone 100 days without a new case of COVID-19. The country is beginning to return to normal with no boundaries on social gatherings as patrons flock to bars and sports fans return to packed stadiums. “It was good science and great political leadership that made the difference,” Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago, said. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had taken drastic steps at the beginning of the pandemic to lock down the island nation before the virus could spread significantly throughout the population. Now facing an election on September 19th, Ardern is the favorite by a large margin after being praised globally for her response to the pandemic.

  • Meanwhile, in Australia strict lockdowns have been put in place in Melbourne and parts of the southeast as the country had its deadliest day on record. 19 more Australians succumbed to the virus on Monday, but officials are optimistic as Victoria, the hardest hit state, recorded a two-week low with 322 new cases. Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews is facing criticism for lapses in quarantine procedures that has allegedly allowed the virus to spread. Especially effected are long-term care facilities which have seen significantly more deaths than in previous years. National Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has said the government must explain the “serious failures” in quarantine arrangements.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

GPT bleeds $520 million

Brief: Real estate investment trust GPT Group has bled $519.1 million after tax for the first half of the year, pointing to COVID-19 related negative property movements for the heavy losses. All properties in the trust were independently valued during the period, resulting in a devaluation of $711.3 million, GPT said. "We have had all our assets revalued during the period with our retail assets revalued by independent valuers in May and again at the end of June as the effects of the pandemic were becoming more apparent," GPT chief executive Bob Johnston said. "The independent valuers have made allowances for both the near-term impacts of the pandemic and also the effects that it is expected to have on the broader economy." Government imposed lockdowns also saw rental collections drop sharply during the first half of the year, with GPT providing relief to both tenants impacted by the government's commercial tenancy Code of Conduct as well as those not eligible for assistance.

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L&G expects pension risk transfer activity to continue apace

Brief: Legal & General Retirement Institutional has announced that despite COVID-19, 2020 is expected to be the second largest year on record for the pension risk transfer (PRT) market. Longevity imageUK PRT is expected to transact £20bn to £25bn, which demonstrates the resilience of this marketplace. Since L&G’s market entry in 2015, their US business has written more than $3.9bn of PRT with 56 clients, which includes four transactions being made in H1, 2020. The success of L&G’s half year results could be down to them being the only insurer who provides PRT directly to pension plans globally. In May, during the height of the UK lockdown, they undertook the first international PRT transaction for IHS Markit. This transaction secured benefits for both their UK and US pension plans.

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Currencies Likely To Reflect Countries' Pandemic Strategy Success

Brief: During the height of the pandemic-induced market turmoil in March, currencies performed mostly according to how they moved with equities - their equity beta, or how risk-on or risk-off they were. That is now changing. Increasingly, currencies will start to reflect how well countries are dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. We look at which currencies could benefit from that dynamic. Each currency can be placed on the spectrum between risk-on (cyclical) and risk off (defensive). Risk-on currencies do well when equity markets rise. The opposite is true for risk-off currencies. During 2020, this equity beta explained the fate of developed and emerging-market currencies very well. The traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar were the big winners during the height of the coronavirus-induced market turmoil in March.

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Coronavirus punishes Warren Buffett as Berkshire Hathaway takes big writedown

Brief: Berkshire Hathaway Inc on Saturday announced a $9.8 billion writedown and 10,000 job losses at its Precision Castparts aircraft parts unit, as the coronavirus pandemic caused widespread pain at Warren Buffett's conglomerate. Despite the writedown, Berkshire said second-quarter net income surged 87% because of gains in stock investments such as Apple Inc as markets rebounded. Operating profit fell 10%, cushioned by a temporary bump at the Geico auto insurer, as the pandemic caused "relatively minor to severe" damage to most of Berkshire's more than 90 operating businesses. "The writedown was prudent," said Cathy Seifert, an equity analyst at CFRA Research. "It's a recognition of what the market has long believed, that the purchase price was rich, and the integration not as smooth as many would have hoped."

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Some office space could get permanently cut during the pandemic. Here’s how companies will cope

Brief: Working from home has become the norm during the coronavirus pandemic, and Morgan Stanley predicts that office tenants across Asia will permanently give up between 3% and 9% of their existing office space. That will result in rent declining between 10% and 15% over the next three years, a recent report by the investment bank estimated. Big tenants from the financial and IT industries, which have well established business continuity plans or work-from-home infrastructure, could give up even more office space — at 10% over the next three years, said the report. Below is the projected rental impact from June 2020 to December 2022, according to the report which assessed the rental impact on key financial centers in Asia Pacific.

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It’s Lonely Trying to Kill This Covid-19 Diagnostics Deal

Brief: Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP doesn’t usually conduct activism in public by itself. Its attempt to kill the $12 billion takeover of Qiagen NV, a European company that makes instruments that detect Covid-19, was a high-profile place to start. The hedge fund says a bid from U.S. diagnostics group Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. is too low given the testing business will become stronger due to the pandemic. Its campaign has helped secure a justified 10% bump on the opening bid, to 43 euros ($50.71) per share. It still wants more. Judged on near-term valuation multiples, the deal can be seen as cheap despite the sweetener. It’s worth 22 times the $2.28 earnings per share Berenberg reckons the company will make this year. (Qiagen says it will make “at least” $2 per share.) That’s substantially lower than the earnings multiples on which diagnostics peers trade. It’s also at the bottom of Qiagen’s trading range prior to a shock sales warning in October that pummeled the shares and led to the sudden replacement of its chief executive officer.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Friday August 7, 2020:

  • In the United States as the overall coronavirus case total closes in on five million, a new model suggests the country could almost double their death toll in just under four months. The model from The University of Washington suggests coronavirus deaths could hit 300,000 by the beginning of December. America’s death toll currently sits at just over 160,000. As dire as these numbers look, experts behind the model say 70,000 lives could be saved off that estimate if people would wear a mask every time they walk out their front door.

  • The latest numbers from Statistics Canada shows steady progress as the country emerges from its coronavirus lockdown, but still have a long way to go. July’s job gain added 419,000 to the tally dropping the unemployment rate to 10.9%. Over 1.6 million jobs have been recovered since May, but Canada’s economy still has 1.3 million fewer jobs than it had in February before widespread lockdowns gripped the country.

  • With coronavirus cases growing in neighbouring nations such as France, United Kingdom chancellor Rishi Sunak announced on Friday the country would not hesitate to reintroduce mandatory 14-day quarantine requirements. Sunak stated the list of countries subject to the two-week quarantine are under constant review with Belgium, Andorra and Bahamas added to the list on Thursday. Boris Johnson’s government is also under pressure to extend the job furlough scheme that has currently supported 9.5 million jobs. Currently the plan is for the program to end in October, but the Scottish National party would like to see it extended into 2021.

  • Reuters is reporting Germany and France have quit talks on reforming the World Health Organization (WHO) in frustration at attempts by the United States to lead the negotiations, despite announcing its decision to leave the organization just a few months ago. A senior European official involved in the talks was quoted as saying, “Nobody wants to be dragged into a reform process and getting an outline for it from a country which itself just left the WHO.”

  • India’s highest daily coronavirus numbers to date pushed the country’s total case count past two million on Friday. The Health Ministry noted 62,538 cases in the past 24 hours as India now joins the United States and Brazil as the only countries that have surpassed the two million mark. To make matters worse, CBC in Canada is reporting 900,000 female workers who have served the country as door-to-door contact tracers went on a two-day strike citing months of harassment, underpayment and lack of protection from infection as reasons for doing so.

  • Australia’s Victoria state reported 450 new coronavirus cases on Friday. Out of those 450 cases, 139 are healthcare workers prompting state Premier Daniel Andrews to urge residents to protect themselves from the virus, which in turn will help the nurses, doctors, paramedics and other hospital workers. The Financial Times is reporting 1,500 healthcare workers have contracted the virus in Victoria state. Premier Andrews also said they have expanded the door knocking program and conducted 1,150 recent checks on residences of people under isolation orders. Of those 1,150, 150 (13%) were not home.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

KKR Makes Bet on Brooklyn Apartment Rentals in $860 Million Deal

Brief: KKR & Co. is betting on Brooklyn apartments as the pandemic rattles the housing market in New York City. The New York-based alternative asset manager is in contract to purchase a portfolio of newly developed rental buildings in Brooklyn from Bruman Realty in a deal that’s worth about $860 million including debt, according to people familiar with the matter. KKR is partnering with apartment operator Dalan Management on the deal and will provide the bulk of the equity, the people said, asking not to be named because the matter is private. Representatives for KKR and Bruman declined to comment. Dalan didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The deal would be one of the biggest commercial real estate acquisitions in New York this year. The market has largely been frozen as the pandemic roils the economy. Second-quarter apartment transactions dropped 70% in the U.S. from last year, according to Real Capital Analytics. Rental apartments have historically been considered recession-proof, performing well in times of economic turbulence as more people are priced out of owning homes. That thesis could best tested in the Covid-19 era with high unemployment and a sluggish recovery landing hard on renters.

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The Savvy Symbiosis of GSO and Blackstone

Brief: In April, GSO and Blackstone’s Life Sciences division said they would provide $2 billion to Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to acquire drug royalties, develop new programs for the company, purchase common stock, and provide $750 million in financing from GSO. The transaction was one of the largest financings ever of a biotech company. Dwight Scott, global head of GSO, said the deal originated with Nicholas Galakatos, global head of Blackstone Life Sciences, but ultimately evolved into a comprehensive deal that included GSO, Blackstone Alternative Asset Management, Blackstone’s Tactical Opportunities Fund. “One of my core areas of focus for GSO over the last few years has been to establish tighter integration between liquid and private strategies and across Blackstone. In this quarter, we showed exactly why this has been valuable,” said Scott, speaking in his first interview since the Covid-19 crisis began. In the first half of the year almost 40 percent of the private originations that the firm did were related in some form to the rest of Blackstone’s business. It’s easy to see how GSO would benefit from doing more with colleagues in private equity, real estate, or BAAM, the largest hedge fund business in the world. In the second quarter, assets under management in credit were up by about 6 percent to $129 billion, with inflows of $6.5 billion.

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Oaktree’s Marks Praises Fed, Even as Distressed Debt Shrinks

Brief: Oaktree Capital Group Co-Founder Howard Marks says the Federal Reserve’s intervention at the peak of the pandemic was necessary to keep companies afloat and avoid a potential economic shutdown, even if that’s giving his firm fewer distressed-debt targets. “If they had not done the things they did, we would be talking about a much more serious economic event, we may even be using the word depression,” or perhaps global recession, Marks said during an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday. Global credit and equity markets have staged a dramatic rebound since March, when the Fed first took unprecedented steps to steady the economy. But the central bank has fueled such a rally that distressed debt, which approached $1 trillion outstanding at the height of the pandemic, has since fallen dramatically, presenting fewer options for firms like Oaktree to put billions of dollars to work. Distressed-debt specialists have raised record amounts of cash through the coronavirus outbreak as companies falter and bankruptcies mount. But for many corporations, additional liquidity spurred by the Fed has pushed borrowing costs to near record lows, taking the lowest-rated junk bonds out of distressed territory this week for the first time since late February. Los Angeles-based Oaktree is one of the largest distressed-debt investors in the world, with more than $19 billion committed to credit from troubled companies. The fund has thrived most in times of economic stress, when prices on bonds of companies in danger of defaulting fall to deep discounts.

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Is There an ESG Silver Lining to Covid?

Brief: The pandemic has certainly not dampened enthusiasm for sustainable investing. In the US, for example, Morningstar reported almost $10bn (€8.5bn) of inflows to sustainable open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in Q1 2020 – over half the total for the whole of 2019.Of course there is always an argument that money follows transitory themes and because ESG portfolios avoid the oil/energy sector – then relative strong performance (as we have seen in recent months) is a given. But is there more to the story than ESG funds simply doing better (and attracting greater interest) because they conveniently don’t invest in hard-hit sectors? Philippe Zaouati, chief executive at Mirova, an asset manager specialising in sustainable finance, insists there is. “We have seen outperformance against the benchmark for several years – with last year a particularly good year. There is a Covid impact – but we were well positioned anyway.” Since the beginning of the year, the pandemic has led to oil price slumps and Zaouati does not see this a short-term pricing anomaly with ‘normalisation’ – so to speak – soon reversing this trend. “I think we are witnessing a cultural change. Covid is a long-term crisis and it is a crisis that is happening at a time when we need to decarbonise the economy. Oil companies’ capex in the near future is going to be low and the sector at a global level is already at a plateau – it won’t go up strongly again.” Which begs the question will we ever see a return to a high demand for oil? After all, the EU Green Deal is spearheading a lot of the recovery efforts and it is prioritising infrastructure and investments that don’t target oil and gas sectors.

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Insurer AXA says 1 Billion Euro Asset Sale Collapses, Income Slides

Brief: French insurer AXA said on Thursday the planned 1 billion euro ($1.2 billion) sale of its AXA Life Europe unit to Cinven had collapsed, and that it would make no fourth-quarter shareholder payouts after net income fell 40% in the first half. AXA, led by chief executive Thomas Buberl since 2016, also dropped 2020 earnings target following a hike in COVID-19 related claims. The second-largest European insurer after Allianz said first-half net profit fell to 1.43 billion euros from 2.33 billion a year before. Overall revenues fell by 10% to 52.4 billion euros. Underlying earnings at the property and casualty business were down 72% to 544 million euros, largely due to COVID-19-related claims stemming from business interruption contracts and event cancellations. “In the context of the material estimated impact from Covid-19 on underlying earnings in 2020, AXA’s management has withdrawn its Ambition 2020 underlying earnings per share and adjusted return on equity targets,” the insurer said. AXA said its board of directors had decided it would not propose an exceptional distribution of reserves to shareholders in the fourth quarter, following discussions with regulators.

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Aviva Investors sees Operating Profit Nearly Halve

Brief: Aviva Investors, the asset manager owned by insurer Aviva plc, saw its operating profit tumble in the first half of the year to £35 million from £60 million in the same period of 2019. The firm said this was due to capital market weakness, de-risking of asset strategies by internal clients and lower levels of private assets investments. But Aviva Investors said it had diversified its third-party client list and “maintained the positive customer momentum” seen in the second half of last year. Flows from external clients were £1.3 billion compared to outflows in the first half of 2019 and were driven by the UK and North America. At the group level, financial performance was described as “solid”, with an operating profit of £1.25 billion, which was down from £1.39 billion in the same period last year. Amanda Blanc, who has been CEO of Aviva plc for a month, said “we must transform our business” and that this would focus on the UK, Ireland and Canada, places where Aviva has the size and “brilliant customer service”. “I have been CEO for one month and I am confident we have many of the ingredients to make Aviva a winner. From this moment on, we must deliver. Nothing else will do. My focus is making sure it happens and at pace”.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Thursday August 6, 2020:

  • In the United States, Democrat and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected the idea of a possible short-term extension of federal jobless benefits. Meanwhile, Republican and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate won’t adjourn for its scheduled August recess as planned for today. Instead, they will continue negotiations for the next COVID-19 stimulus package. However, Senator McConnell made it clear they won’t wait forever and will adjourn for August if Democrats aren’t willing to cut a deal.  Elsewhere, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday they hope the United States and President Donald Trump reconsiders its decision to withdraw from the WHO. President Trump made the decision to withdraw back in May and the director general for WHO said the problem with America leaving isn’t financial (likely not true, since America was their largest donor), but a lack of solidarity between global leaders.

  • In Canada, Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil announced on Thursday that he plans to step down as leader of the province. McNeil said he made the decision to resign prior to the coronavirus pandemic, but obviously once it hit, along with the worst mass shooting in the country’s history, his priorities changed. McNeil still plans to act as premier and Liberal Party leader until the party choses a replacement, which could still take months.

  • In the United Kingdom, the Financial Times is reporting senior British officials are lobbying Boris Johnson’s government to relax restrictions on travel to the United States. Their reasoning is that the blanket enforcement of quarantine measures risks harming UK business. Currently anyone who travels to the United States must quarantine for 14 days. The talk leaves a stalemate in the Johnson government with some officials wanting the measures to stay in place to keep the virus under control, while the other side hopes a relaxation will help smooth the path of a trade deal currently being worked on between the UK and United States.

  • Germany reported 1,000+ new cases of coronavirus on Thursday, the first time the country has surpassed that number since May 7th. The Robert Koch Institute, the country’s main public health authority, has stated previously any figure above 1,000 a day makes it much harder for local authorities to carry out effective tracking and tracing. The increase in infections coincides with the start of the school year in several German regions, along with citizens returning from vacation travel destinations. Due to the increase, as of this Saturday, Germany is introducing mandatory testing for all those who are returning from high-risk areas, such as several regions in Spain.

  • Similar to Germany, France and Spain have recorded their largest daily spikes in new COVID-19 cases in months, which is sparking concerns that continental Europe might be experiencing the second wave of the Pandemic. France recorded 1,695 new cases on Wednesday, their largest jump since May 30th while Spain announced 1,772 cases, its largest increase since lockdown measures were lifted in June. The increase in cases also means the likelihood of 14-day quarantine measures being reintroduced for those who have traveled to both countries.

  • The Philippines now have the distinction they never wanted: the coronavirus hotspot of southeast Asia. With over 3,500+ new cases reported on Thursday, the Philippines surpassed Indonesia for most cases in the region (119,000+). This is significant as Indonesia has twice the population of the Philippines. The news comes on the same day that the country’s economy has slipped into a recession, following a record 16.5% contraction. This now puts pressure on President Rodrigo Duterte and his government to somehow find a balance of getting the pandemic under control, but also regain some form of economic stability.

  • As coronavirus cases start to surge in Japan, many are wondering where their national leadership has disappeared to. When it appeared the country had the coronavirus pandemic under control in May, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe acclaimed the country’s response as a world model. However, after lifting a seven-week state of emergency, the number of cases has steadily increased, especially in the Tokyo region, and Prime Minister Abe has gone silent. According to a poll earlier in the week, Japanese citizens are seemingly losing faith in Prime Minister Abe with 61% disapproving of the cabinet’s handling of the pandemic, while the leader’s approval rating has dropped to a record low of 35%.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

BlackRock Employees Can Choose Where They Work for Rest of Year

Brief: BlackRock's 16,000 employees may continue to work remotely for the remainder of the year wherever they are located, even as the firm reopens offices around the world in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. "Given the uncertainty in many of our locations and to help you plan ahead, we will continue providing all employees the option of working from home for the rest of 2020. When your office is available for use, you can decide to work from the office, work from home or split your time between the two," said an Aug. 3 employee memo obtained by Pensions & Investments. Where BlackRock reopens offices based on local conditions and government guidelines, it will use a split-team model for the time being to "ensure social distancing," said the joint memo from Robert S. Kapito, director, co-founder and president; Lawrence Knafo, managing director and chief security officer; and Manish Mehta, managing director and global head of human resources. Going forward, BlackRock will increase office occupancy in areas where COVID-19 conditions have improved or reduce an office's in-person head count if pandemic conditions worsen.

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BlackRock Joins Crescendo of Inflation Warnings Amid Virus Fight

Brief: BlackRock Inc. has joined a growing chorus of investors and analysts warning of resurgent inflation risks, as the global battle against the coronavirus crisis creates a convergence of ultra-easy monetary policy and expansionary budgets. The world’s largest asset manager pointed Thursday to a potential pickup in U.K. price pressures after the Bank of England held record-low interest rates and maintained its asset-purchase program. Last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. highlighted growing concerns over the U.S. inflation outlook, which the bank said could even threaten the dollar’s reserve-currency status. While the world’s nations are unleashing unprecedented spending to counter the economic shock from the pandemic, central banks are maintaining ultra-loose monetary conditions to cap the costs of such fiscal largess. This policy combination is now fueling fears of a spike in consumer prices down the line as more money chases fewer goods. Market-implied price expectations have climbed globally in recent months, fueling a rally in gold, and Wall Street’s heavyweights from Pacific Investment Management Co. to AllianceBernstein Holding LP have cautioned in recent months that inflation is a problem that’s bound to return.

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COVID-19 Vaccine Approval Could Stall Tech Stocks Boom: Goldman

Brief: Approvals for a potential COVID-19 vaccine later this year could threaten the recent surge in speculative investment in big U.S. technology companies and pull investors back towards more traditional growth-linked cyclical stocks, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. Seen as "stay-at-home" winners in the coronavirus lockdowns, shares in Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Facebook Inc (FB.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) have surged this year and now account for nearly a fifth of the S&P 500's .SPX stock market value. Bumper results from the iPhone maker last week pushed it past Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) to become the world’s most valuable publicly listed company and heading towards a $2 trillion valuation. In a global markets research note sent to clients, Goldman analysts said the current rally could last until Labor Day in early September, but would be threatened by updates on vaccines. “Approval could ... prompt the kind of rotation that started and petered out in May and early June, supporting traditional cyclicals, steeper curves and banks, and challenging tech leadership,” they argued.

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Covid-19 Revealed Income Inequality and Funds are Expected to Act

Brief: The fund management sector looks set to swoop on the topic of social inequality once markets emerge from Covid-19. By now you may have read ample articles (like this) that say not only is ESG (environmental, social, governance) investing not dead, but that Covid-19 will reinforce it and, importantly, give more impetus to the ‘social’ dimension. “Whereas climate change put environmental issues front and centre, the pandemic has elevated urgency on social issues,” says Thomas Kuh (pictured below), head of ESG at Truvalue Labs in San Francisco. “Covid-19 has exposed serious, systems-level problems like inequalities of income and wealth that need to be addressed,” he says. After analysing data on information flows between January and April, Truvalue found ESG issues such as access and affordability were prominent in the context of the pandemic. Maarten Bloemen of Franklin Templeton Investments’ global equity group, echoes the finding, saying: “The coronavirus has brought a spotlight on several issues in the ‘S’ category of ESG, including social stability, employment, infrastructure, data security and keeping employees and customers safe – whether they are physically interacting or not.”

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Rallying Stocks Captivate Hedge Funds Even as Clients Grow Wary

Brief: The relentless rally in American equities is emboldening hedge funds at a time their own clients are getting worried. Professional managers that make both bullish and bearish equity bets last month pushed their long positions on stocks up above their short ones by a ratio of almost 1.9-to-1, the highest reading in more than a decade, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage unit. The S&P 500 rose 5.5% during the period, its best July since 2010, and has rallied in the first three days of August. Meanwhile, the firm’s survey of hedge fund investors showed roughly three quarters of the respondents expect the S&P 500 to finish the year lower than 3,300. The benchmark closed on Wednesday at 3,327.77, about 26 times annual earnings. People are choosing sides in a year like no other, when rebounding shares have pushed valuations to two-decade highs even as a pandemic rages. While investors in the Morgan Stanley survey cited everything from the health crisis to a weak economy and November’s presidential election as the top market risks, the people paid to ride the wave are afraid of missing out. For now, the disagreement hasn’t prompted clients to exit. In fact, interest in investing with long-short hedge funds last quarter increased to the highest level in at least two years, Morgan Stanley data showed. “Investors felt hedge funds performed well in 2Q, despite missing part of the market rally,” the firm wrote in the note to clients last week. About “90% of investors felt HF performance was in-line or better than expectations.”

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COVID-19 Will Cause a Decline in Assets Under Management, but Create Opportunities for Managers

Brief: COVID-19 and the associated economic crisis are set to cause the first decline in global asset management industry assets under management in a decade, according to Cerulli Associates’ latest report, Global Markets 2020: A Sharper View of the Asset Management Sector. However, moving beyond 2020, the global analytics and consulting firm expects the global asset management industry to recover and grow, fueled by increasing demand in developing countries, particularly Asia. Advances in technology and product will give global asset managers more ways to access growing investor segments. “As the coronavirus pandemic continues to impact the global economy in the second half of 2020 and beyond, asset managers will need to find ways to keep investors in their products and prevent a widespread flight to cash,” says André Schnurrenberger, managing director, Europe at Cerulli Associates. “Managers should dedicate resources to investor education on how to handle a market correction, implementing scenario analysis from the last significant global drawdown in 2008.” These resources will be especially useful in those countries where emerging middle-class investors have entered the market within the past decade and had not experienced a substantial correction before COVID-19.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Wednesday August 5, 2020:

  • Videos were quick to surface of an apocalyptic blast occurring at a dock in the Lebanese Capital of Beirut on Tuesday killing at least 135 and injuring thousands more. The death toll is expected to rise with many people still unaccounted for. The source of the explosion was 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate kept at the docks for years, said the Lebanese Prime Minister. The tragedy only compounds the many issues Lebanon was dealing with during the coronavirus pandemic. Lebanon’s unemployment rate sits at 33% while close to half of their people (45%) live below the poverty line. Prior to the pandemic, the country was also dealing with an economy in crisis due to a corrupt government and excessive borrowing.

  • In the United States, the White House and Democrats are hoping for an agreement on coronavirus aid by the end of this week. Currently both sides are locked into their respective corners with many lawmakers skeptical that a deal could be made by Friday. The last unemployment payments under the old agreement were paid out last week. President Donald Trump has teased the idea of using his executive authority if no deal is reached by the two sides.

  • The Canadian Federal government announced on Wednesday they have struck a deal with pharmaceutical company Pfizer and biotechnology firm Moderna on millions of doses of a potential COVID-19 vaccine. However, the government isn’t saying how much they have spent to secure the doses, or an exact number of how many doses of either vaccine Canada will get. Their reasoning is they are also in talks with other domestic and international firms to secure doses of their experimental vaccines as well. Both Pfizer and Moderna have made it clear they seek to make a profit off of their vaccines, while companies such as Johnson & Johnson have said they wouldn’t price their vaccine candidates for profit, at least not in the first phases of the pandemic.

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson previously promised a public inquiry into the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Following a cross-party panel of lawmakers report, he may be regretting that decision. The House of Commons Affairs Committee said the March 13th decision to remove all restrictions of movement of people arriving in the UK could have imported as many as 10,000 cases of the coronavirus. The move came at a time when many other European counterparts were doing the exact opposite and tightening their border controls. The committee called the government’s decision “inexplicable”.

  • India has reported more than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases for the eighth straight day as the country closes in on two million confirmed cases. However, the health ministry is pointing to the fatality rate, which is now 2.10%, the lowest since the outbreak began. The country of 1.4 billion is also trying to minimize the economic impact as authorities in the financial hub of Mumbai allowed shops in malls to reopen after four months of lockdown.

  • In Australia, a Victoria state government website crashed on Wednesday as it was overwhelmed by employees in essential services applying for permits that would allow them to leave home for work. Starting Thursday, non-essential businesses will close their doors officially (some had already started when the announcement was made on Sunday) for the next six weeks as the state engages Stage Four of its lockdown protocol. The move forces 250,000 people out of work in Melbourne, the country’s second largest city, which usually accounts for 25% of Australia’s economic activity. Victoria state set a new daily record of 725 COVID-19 cases on Wednesday.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Allianz Faces SEC Information Request for its Structured Alpha Funds

Brief: Allianz said on Wednesday that it was fielding a request for information from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over a series of funds that suffered sharp losses amid the coronavirus-led market meltdown earlier this year and are the subject of an investor lawsuit. The funds in question are Allianz’s “Structured Alpha” hedge funds managed by Allianz Global Investors. Allianz made the disclosure in its earnings report. In July, the Arkansas Teacher Retirement System filed a lawsuit in a Manhattan court to recover losses of least $774 million in the first quarter of 2020 for the funds. Allianz said the case was “legally and factually flawed”, but that it expects that other investor suits may emerge. Allianz said it was fully cooperating with SEC’s request for information about the Structured Alpha funds.

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Some U.S. Activists Post Double-Digit Gains but Many Nurse Losses

Brief: A handful of corporate agitators pushing for change at companies scored double-digit returns in the first half of 2020, but panic selling and bargain hunting left the average activist investor nursing big losses. Several experienced activists and newer managers reported a surge in returns even as the coronavirus outbreak led economic production to collapse and sent unemployment rates soaring. William Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management gained 35% while Jason Aintabi’s Blackwells Capital climbed 27% and Glenn Welling’s Engaged Capital returned 17% in the first seven months of the year, investors said… Others saw positions in financial, food and retail and industrial conglomerate stocks drop as the pandemic reshaped the world. Legion Partners lost 3.8%, Third Point’s Offshore Fund lost 7.3% and Trian Fund Management lost 13% in the first half, investors said. Trian’s concentrated portfolio includes Sysco, which fell 37% this year. Representatives for the firms declined to comment.

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Insight Investment: COVID-19 Could Trigger the End of the USD Bull Market

Brief: The US dollar [USD] will suffer as global growth rebounds from the Covid-19 crisis, potentially triggering the end of its bull market run, however any weakness will be muted in comparison to the multi-year downtrend that followed the global financial crisis. This is the view in new research, “COVID-19: The Trigger That Ends the US Bull Market?” published by Insight Investment, a global investment manager with $909bn under management. Francesca Fornasari, author of the research and Head of Currency Solutions at Insight Investment said, “During the global financial crisis, the US dollar surged as investors fled to the deepest and most liquid market. But, as equities bottomed in March 2009, the USD peaked and embarked on a multi-year downtrend. As the global economy faces another severe downturn, caused by Covid-19, so the USD has moved to historic highs. However, this time around the underlying structural support of many currencies is much weaker than 10 years ago. We expect a more muted rebound and greater differentiation amongst currencies with a high beta to the economic cycle.

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A Beleaguered Asset Manager Was Poised for a Turnaround. Then the Pandemic Hit

Brief: Before the coronavirus pandemic hit, investment firm GAM Holding’s turnaround strategy seemed to be working. But its results for the first half of 2020 show that the pandemic — and subsequent market volatility — may have stymied GAM’s immediate comeback efforts after its 2018 bond fund liquidation. During the first half of 2020, the company’s outflows grew while its 2019 profits turned to 2020 losses. Prior to this year, following the implementation of some of its turnaround plan, GAM’s 2019 second-half net outflows had declined and its profits, compared to the first half of 2019, had improved. As for the first half of 2020, GAM’s earnings results, published on its website Tuesday, show that its underlying loss before taxes was CHF 2 billion (US$2.1 billion). This is compared to the first half of 2019, when the firm brought in CHF 2.1 billion, its presentation shows. Meanwhile, GAM reported outflows of CHF 8.5 billion outflows for the first half of the year, driven by its specialist fixed income strategies, which lost CHF 5.7 billion, its half-year 2020 report shows. According to that report, net outflows in the second quarter were lower than those in the first — CHF 2 billion versus CHF 6.5 billion.

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Virus Will Spur a ‘Tsunami of Fraud’ in the U.K., KPMG Warns

Brief: The coronavirus is likely to trigger a tsunami of U.K. fraud cases when courts and law enforcement get back to full strength, accounting firm KPMG warned. Although there have been fewer fraud cases compared to previous years, that will change as the courts get back on their feet, KPMG said in a report released Tuesday. “The Covid-19 environment has led to increased financial pressures on individuals and organizations leading to more opportunities to commit fraud,” Roy Waligora, KPMG’s head of investigations in the U.K., said in an emailed statement. “This is likely to lead to further risk of financial misreporting and of misconduct and fraud in traditional hot spots.” The backlog of criminal cases in England and Wales stood at 37,434 at the end of 2019 and likely has grown considerably during the outbreak, when several courts closed their doors and others scaled back operations. Several cases may stem from the government’s job-retention program, the accounting firm said. KPMG says the U.K. tax authority received as many as 1,900 reports of furlough fraud in May. Last month, revenue and customs officials made their first arrest in relation to the program, which paid 80% of wages up to a cap of 2,500 pounds. “We are likely to see a lot more HMRC activity where government aid schemes have been abused,” Waligora said. “We are likely to see a tsunami of Covid-19 related fraud cases.”

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Fed is Headed for a Clash with Hedge Funds, Other Shadow Banks

Brief: The Federal Reserve and other central banks are heading for a collision with shadow lenders -- the firms with a sinister nickname that are increasingly dominating global finance. Even as policy makers struggle to reopen their economies in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, they’ve launched a review of what went wrong with markets in March, when a worldwide dash for cash by investors nearly crashed the financial system and forced unprecedented rescue actions by central banks. Their focus is on loosely regulated money market and hedge funds, mortgage originators and other entities. Already, some watchdogs have pointed to highly leveraged trades involving U.S. Treasuries as one source of the turmoil. “In many cases they have reached systemic importance,” Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens said of the non-banks. He added that it’s time to move toward more regulation. There’s a lot at stake should the scrutiny lead to tougher oversight. The alternative financiers are major providers of credit to households and companies, making their smooth functioning critical to the health of financial markets and the economy. Non-banks are marshalling their lobbyists in Washington to argue that casting blame on the industry is misplaced. A point in their favor is that unlike Wall Street banks a decade ago, shadow lenders didn’t cause the recent meltdown. Instead, the financial-market stress was triggered by a health crisis.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday August 4, 2020:

  • In the United States, President Donald Trump had a sit-down interview with Axios that aired on Monday night. In response to the interviewer’s question regarding the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and its lack of apparent control, President Trump responded: Well, what’s your definition of control? I think it’s under control.” The interviewer countered that COVID-19 can’t be under control when 1,000 Americans are dying a day. The President’s response was the following: “They are dying. That’s true. And you – it is what it is… But that doesn’t mean we aren’t doing everything we can. It’s under control as much as you can control it.”

  • In Canada, public health officials and researchers are concerned about the growing online movement around disinformation regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. For instance, conspiracy theories may lead more and more Canadians to avoid important safety measures, such as social distancing or wearing a mask. The CBC article noted a study from Carleton University back in May that 46% of Canadians believed in one of four unfounded COVID-19 theories: That the virus was engineered in a Chinese lab; the virus is being spread to cover up the effects of 5G wireless technology; drugs such as hydroxychloroquine could cure COVID-19 patients and that rinsing your nose with a saline solution could protect you from infection.

  • A study from the University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said the United Kingdom could face a second wave of COVID-19 twice as widespread as the initial outbreak. The study points that this result could happen without a more effective test-and-trace system in place as students are set to return to school in the fall. The study concluded a second wave could be prevented if 75% of those with symptoms were found and tested, along with 68% of their contacts being traced.

  • France’s medical officials are also sounding similar warning bells for the potential second wave. The country’s council of scientific advisers have warned that it’s highly probable a second epidemic wave will be observed in the fall or next winter. The infection rate in France has climbed back to levels last seen before a strict lockdown started to be lifted in May and government officials admit the situation is controlled, but fragile.

  • In the Philippines, tens of millions of people find themselves back in lockdown as the country struggles to contain the spread of COVID-19. Stay-at-home orders are now in place in Manila, along with four surrounding provinces on the island of Luzon for two weeks. The orders mean citizens in the area must stay home except for going out to buy essential goods, or exercise outdoors. Public transport has been suspended and domestic flights grounded. With only 24 hours notice of the new lockdown restrictions, many people found themselves stranded in the capital without any transportation to return to their hometowns.

  • Australia’s hard-hit Victoria state has put in more measures to try and help curb the spread of COVID-19. Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews’s government has banned people who should be self-isolating from exercising outside of their homes and introduced tougher fines for people infected with the coronavirus, but still continue to go to work. Failure to self-isolate will see fines rise from $1,652 AUS to $4,957 AUS. The most serious cases could be taken to court, where the fines could reach $20,000 AUS. The premier said military and health teams have knocked on the doors of more than 3,000 homes in the region, only to find more than 800 people who should been home awaiting a test result, or had tested positive for the coronavirus were nowhere to be found.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Record Cybersecurity Attacks Strike ‘Particularly Vulnerable’ Hedge Funds

Brief: Cybersecurity companies are warning that they’ve seen an exponential rise in attempted “phishing”, banking-email compromises, and illegal cryptocurrency mining. And it’s hedge funds that may be most vulnerable. “We’ve definitely seen an increase in phishing and crypto-mining, and an uptick in hacking attempts,” Ed Cowen, CEO of Remora, a cyber security consultancy which specialises in hedge fund and asset manager clients, told Financial News. “It’s part of an overall trend that has been accelerated by the digitisation of business and the evolution of crime. ”Soaring cases of cyberattacks have been plaguing every sector of the financial industry as the pandemic-driven lockdown forced workers to scatter beyond the firewalls of secure offices. But it’s an especially acute issue for hedge funds, given that many firms in the sector tend to lack the large-scale, in-house security of bigger firms. The rewards for crime are also high: hedge funds manage billions in assets, making them more exposed. “The real challenge for funds is that many of them are large micro-businesses,” Cowen said. “They have to look, talk and feel like they’re large corporations, but typically they’re between 10 and 20 people ... I don’t think funds and businesses in the UK are fully aware of the scale of cyber fraud. If a bank gets robbed, people talk about it; if the [hedge fund] office gets robbed, no one talks about it.”

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Investors Are Clinging to an Outdated Strategy – At the Worst Possible Time

Brief: Despite the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, the gap between the present value of liabilities and assets at U.S. state pensions is measured in trillions of dollars. To make matters worse, pensions are now faced with the reality that standard diversification — including extremely low-yielding bonds — may no longer serve as an effective hedge for equity risk. While I was at CalPERS, concerns arose in 2016 about the effectiveness of standard portfolio diversification as prescribed by Modern Portfolio Theory. We began to recognize that management of portfolio risk and equity tail risk, in particular, was the key driver of long-term compound returns. Subsequently, we began to explore alternatives to standard diversification, including tail-risk hedging. At present, the need to rethink basic portfolio construction and risk mitigation is even greater — as rising hope in Modern Monetary Theory to support financial markets is possibly misplaced. At the most recent peak in the U.S. equity market in February 2020, the average funded ratio for state pension funds was only 72 percent (ranging from 33 percent to 108 percent). That status undoubtedly has worsened with the recent turmoil in financial markets due to the global pandemic. How much further will it decline and to what extent pension contributions must be raised — at the worst possible time — remains to be seen if the economy is thrown into a prolonged recession.

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Four Shut Franklin Schemes Hit by Defaults

Brief:Four among the six shuttered debt schemes of Franklin TempletonMutual fund saw a fall in their Net Asset Values or NAVs after two entities - Nufuture Digital (India) Ltd (NDIL) and Future Ideas Co Ltd (FICL) – defaulted on payments. The net asset value of Franklin India Income Opportunities Fund fell by 4.73% on Friday. The NAV of Franklin India Credit Risk Fund also saw a dip of 2.28%, Franklin India Short Term Income Plan’s NAV dropped by 1.75% and Franklin India Dynamic Accrual dropped saw a fall of of 1.343%. “Due to default in payment, the securities of FICL and NDIL will be valued at zero basis AMFI standard hair cut matrix and interest accrued and due will be fully provided. Securities of RTVPL will continue to be valued at 75% basis recommended valuation,” Franklin Templeton MF said in a note. "This is a bad news for sure. A debt mutual fund investor has capital protection on his/her mind always. A 4.7% dip in NAV is huge. And when you can't pull out your money or do anything, it is worse. I believe this may lead to further fear psychosis in the minds of debt investors. In such situations, debt investors may report to redeeming from other debt schemes as well, which is not good," says Babu Krishnamoorthy, Chief Sherpa, FinSherpa InvestmentServices.

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ESG Funds Crowned Winners of COVID-19 Crisis

Brief: Australasian sustainable funds attracted inflows worth more than $207 million in the second quarter of 2020, with Australian Ethical and Dimensional reaping the majority of these rewards. Morningstar's latest Global Sustainable Fund Flows report, which examined 3432 sustainable open-end funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) across the globe in the second quarter of 2020, found that sustainable funds outperformed following the March market sell-off. Assets in Australasian sustainable funds increased substantially during the second quarter, up 18% from $14.9 billion (US$10.6 billion) at the close of the first quarter to $17.7 billion (US$12.6 billion). At the end of June, sustainable assets recorded one of their highest levels, only outpaced by their peak at December 2019. Morningstar found there are now 108 strategies in the Australasian sustainable fund universe, up from 86 at the close of the first quarter 2020. Interestingly, the Australian sustainable funds market is relatively concentrated, with the top 15 funds accounting for 60% of all assets in the sustainable fund arena.

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European ‘Zombie’ Companies Have Three to Six Months’ Runaway Before Defaults Rise, says Aviva Investors

Brief: Concern is growing over a likely spike in defaults among so-called ‘zombie’ companies that have stayed afloat during the coronavirus pandemic by relying on government stimulus and increasing their debt loads, but will struggle to keep servicing loans as government schemes roll back. ‘Zombie companies’ are indebted businesses that only generate enough cash to cover operational costs and interest payments on their loans, but not the debt itself. In the UK, financial services industry body The City UK estimates that businesses may build up GBP100 billion of debt by next March which they would be unable to repay, with 780,000 SMEs in danger of insolvency. A global forecast by fund manager Janus Henderson for overall corporate debt predicts a jump to a record USD9.3 trillion in 2020. Jub Hurren, senior portfolio manager of AIMS Fixed Income at Aviva Investors, says that many companies won’t fail immediately, thanks to supportive monetary policy: “The fact that interest rates are going to stay at extremely low levels means that even companies with low earnings can probably survive longer than they would otherwise because of the reduced burden in terms of servicing debt.”

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Property Fund Investors Should Wait Months for Cash to Avoid Exodus: UK Regulator

Brief: Investors in property funds should wait up to six months before they can get their money back to avoid a stampede for the exit leading to widespread suspensions in rocky markets, Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority proposed on Monday. UK-regulated open-ended property funds offer daily redemptions to entice investors, but nearly all those targeted by Monday’s proposal are suspended following market volatility in March due to the pandemic, trapping more than $7.5 billion in assets. Policymakers have warned that property funds should not be viewed like a bank account that can be tapped at will, given they contain “illiquid” assets such as commercial real estate that can take several months to sell even in normal market conditions. Concerns over daily redemptions began when several property funds were suspended after Britain voted in June 2016 to leave the European Union, as investors pulled out money. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) proposes that property funds publish a “notice period” or irrevocable pre-agreed gap of between 90 and 180 days from the request for a redemption to the return of cash. It would affect new and existing customers, but also mean that property funds don’t have to hold as much cash as they do now, the FCA said.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Friday July 31, 2020:

  • The United States has seen the worst economic plunge since 1947, the first year records were kept. Shrinking at a 32.9 per cent annual rate in the April-June quarter, the U.S. is facing a tough decision between economic gain and the safety of its citizens. The turmoil has American President Donald Trump calling for a postponement of the presidential elections in November. He argues that voting by mail – the most likely scenario for millions of Americans – will result in voter fraud. Delaying the vote would require an act of Congress and has been met with strong condemnation from members of both major U.S. political parties.

  • Reports of Americans vacationing in Canada has drawn the ire of the federal government. The so-called “Alaska Loophole” allows Americans to enter into Canada if they are returning to Alaska to reside or for work. Although all land borders between Canada and the United States have been closed since March 21st, there has been multiple cases of Americans stopping along the way for leisure activities. Starting Friday, people travelling to Alaska must do so at one of five designated border crossings and follow the most direct route to the state, reporting back to Canadian officials once they’ve arrived. They will also be given a tag to hang in their vehicle to identify them as foreign nationals.

  • In the United Kingdom new cases of COVID-19 are on the rise. The daily reported average is around 4900, up from 2000 in late June. This has caused Prime Minister Boris Johnson to pull back the easement of lockdown measures hours before they were slated to take effect. Now once again on hold are wedding receptions, theatre openings, and fans in stadium seating. Johnson has also extended mandatory face covering regulations on public transit, in galleries and places of worship. Areas in the north of England, where cases are surging, will once again have to abide by the single-family bubble. The restrictions come as scientists in the country can no longer confidently agree that the rate of infection is slowing.

  • Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has postponed the legislative elections which were scheduled to take place on September 6th. The highly contested elections will now be held on the 5th of September 2021. Citing the spike of infections in the city, Lam has received backing from the Chinese government and said the decision to delay the election “is the most difficult decision I've had to make in the past seven months.” Pro-democracy lawmakers in opposition to the decision issued a statement saying that the government is using the pandemic as an excuse to delay the elections and quell the anti-government sentiments that have been rising in the city for months.

  • After 99 days without community transmission of the virus, Vietnam has recorded its 2nd death from COVID-19. The country has been a global success story, implementation of strict measures at the start of the pandemic has kept numbers in the country extremely low as the rest of the world struggles to flatten the curve. The deceased, a man in his 70s was being treated for kidney disease at the time of the infection. He was being treated at the Danang hospital, where last week, an outbreak caused authorities to reimpose a strict lockdown across the country. There are now 93 confirmed cases in multiple jurisdictions throughout the nation.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Pandemic boost for Big Tech set to drive Wall St higher

Brief: Wall Street was set to open higher on Friday after tech titans Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook posted blowout quarterly earnings, helping keep nagging pandemic nerves at bay. Apple Inc surged 7% premarket, setting the stock on course to open at a record high, as it delivered year-on-year revenue gains across every category and in every geography.
Amazon.com Inc jumped 6.2% after posting the biggest profit in its 26-year history, while Facebook Inc gained 6.7% as it reported better-than-expected revenue. Trading in Alphabet Inc was more subdued as quarterly sales fell for the first time in its 16 years as a public company.

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Despite rules, global firms are making money on America’s virus crisis

Brief: Pacific Investment Management Co. runs a hedge fund registered in the Cayman Islands, a common structure for avoiding certain U.S. taxes. But when a profit opportunity arose from the ashes of America’s coronavirus crisis, that international location did not stop it from seizing the moment. The Federal Reserve opened a highly anticipated emergency lending program in June, a revamped version of one it used during the 2008 financial crisis. This time around, Congress stipulated that only American companies could participate as borrowers in such programs. Despite being offshore, Pimco’s fund had an easy way to benefit. The offshore fund is invested in an entity registered in Delaware. That entity can be used by investment managers to buy and sell bonds. The Delaware operation borrowed $13.1 million from the Fed program by pledging a bundle of debt as collateral. Investors in the Cayman-based hedge fund ultimately stand to profit from the transaction.

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‘Unsexy’ stock proves a pandemic winner for this equity veteran

Brief: The Covid-19 pandemic has produced winners from a wide array of sectors, with technology leading the charge, but there are several surprising stories that have come to the fore. Citywire + rated manager Raphael Pitoun, who runs two equity funds at CQS Investment Management, told Citywire Selector about one area that has proven its worth for his portfolios – pest control. Pitoun said Rollins Inc is a market leader in pest control but showed its ability to pivot during the crisis, switching from dealing solely with pests to redeploying its workforce to aid in the major drive to improve workplace hygiene. ‘It’s typically a business that is not particularly sexy or maybe it is less flashy than the likes of Tesla or the other Faangs [Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google],’ he said. ‘It’s a business that exists for a very long time with a good amount of growth. What we learned over the last few years is that people that have a leadership position in one market they tend to accentuate this position and do little else

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Principal Financial Adjusts COVID-19 Impact Formula

Brief: Principal Financial Group has discovered that COVID-19-related deaths are only about half as damaging to earnings as the company once expected. The Des Moines, Iowa-based insurer has been trying to estimate how much COVID-19 will affect after-tax operating earnings. The company has now cut the predicted impact to a $10 million reduction in operating earnings per 100,000 U.S. COVID-19-related deaths. Earlier in the year, the company had estimated it might face $20 million in impact per 100,000 U.S. COVID-19-related deaths. “This reduction reflects a lower incidence of COVID-related deaths in our insured population,” Deanna Strable, Principal’s chief financial officer, said Tuesday during a conference call.

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Lazard second-quarter earnings fall amid COVID-19 slump in dealmaking

Brief: Investment bank Lazard Ltd (LAZ.N) on Friday reported an 8% fall in second-quarter adjusted earnings per share, a smaller drop than analysts had expected, as the slowdown in corporate dealmaking due to the COVID-19 pandemic weighed. The slump came as global M&A activity, one of Lazard’s main revenue drivers, tumbled to its lowest level in more than a decade in the second quarter, as companies gave up on expansion plans to focus on protecting their balance sheets and employees in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
Larger M&A activity has shown signs of picking up in the third quarter with 40 deals worth at least $1 billion announced during this month, down almost one third on July, 2019 but up 29% from June, according to Refinitiv data. “The one thing we’ve learned from this pandemic is that it’s reasonably difficult to predict the future. That said, it feels like Q2 probably turns out to be the low (M&A activity),” Lazard Chairman and Chief Executive Kenneth Jacobs said in an interview.

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Here's What Hedge Funds Have Been Saying About COVID-19

Brief: We're starting to get second-quarter investor letters from hedge funds, and as would be expected, COVID-19 features prominently in them. One fund manager pointed out that despite the recession caused by COVID-19, the bulls are running in the market. Other fund managers have highlighted the opportunities presented by share price dislocation due to the coronavirus. At least one fund manager firmly believes the concerns around COVID-19 are overdone despite the running of the bulls in the market. Bull Market Coincides With Recession: Jacobs Asset Management Managing Partner Sy Jacobs said in his second-quarter letter to investors that it's strange how the bull market has continued despite the recession triggered by COVID-19. He said a short list of story, momentum and growth stocks has been leading the bull market.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Thursday July 30, 2020:

  • In the United States, where more than 150,000 people have died from the novel coronavirus, the White House COVID-19 task force is urging governors in the midwestern states to get ahead of the curve by issuing mandatory mask protocols and closing non-essential services. Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee are all seeing increases of positive tests as the virus ravages states in the west and south of the country. Dr. Anthony Fauci says that if governors don’t get protocols in place soon it will be harder to cope with new cases when they arrive. "Before you know it, two to three weeks down the pike, you're in trouble," he said.

  • In an informal survey issued by CBC Montreal, most medical experts in Canada believe that a second wave of COVID-19 is inevitable. Out of the 170 people polled, 114 of believe a second wave of the virus is “very likely” and another 40 believe that it is “somewhat likely.” Mark Goldberg, an environmental epidemiologist at McGill University says that as cases rise in Quebec, a second wave may be imminent. "If it starts increasing and not coming down over the next two weeks, I would say we'd be into a second wave," he said. Experts have said that the second wave of the pandemic may, however, be less severe than the first as more is known about the virus and the precautions that need to be taken to stop the spread.

  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told Britons not to “delude themselves” into thinking that the pandemic is over and acknowledged that the virus is “bubbling up” in roughly 30 areas. The U.K. has had the most excessive deaths from coronavirus in the world, meaning that the death rate has exceeded the level of previous years by the highest margin. At 7.5 per cent more deaths than the yearly average, the U.K. has surpassed Spain at 6.7 per cent and Scotland at 5.1 per cent. The Prime Minister added that the country has "to continue our work in driving the virus down.”

  • Despite being the first European nation to be hit with the virus, Italy has proven that strict contact-tracing and elaborate social measures can contain new outbreaks of COVID-19. After being hit hard in March and April, Italy began to ease lockdown restrictions in May, while new cases of the virus were still numbering in the thousands. Paling in comparison to the previous months, the average new cases in the country remains around 300 daily. Italy’s prime minister Giuseppe Conte has extended the state of emergency until October and intends to keep most restrictions in place while neighboring countries experience a strong uptick in cases.
      
  • The Philippines have reached a new record for daily infections for the fourth time this month, as many hospitals in the capital of Manilla have intensive care units reaching capacity. On Thursday, the country confirmed nearly 4000 new cases as President Rodrigo Duterte announced a major shift in his governments approach to the virus. Duterte intends increase tests to 10 million by next year, so far, the country has tested just over a tenth of that number. The government is now planning to build multiple quarantine facilities to house patients with mild or no symptoms while they recover in order to avoid widespread infections in the community.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

BNP Paribas Personal Finance, Experian, Aryza help customers through the Covid-19 pandemic

Brief: BNP Paribas Personal Finance has announced that it will use Experian’s Open Banking technology and Aryza’s Debtsense digital platform to provide online account reviews to customers who have been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Debtsense from Aryza uses Experian’s Open Banking service to allow people to share their account and transaction data, giving a clear and detailed picture of affordability, financial circumstances and commitments. The insights will enable BNP Paribas Personal Finance to assess people whose finances have been affected by the pandemic and who may now be vulnerable. They can then be offered a payment break or an affordable payment plan based on their specific circumstances. The app uses the lender’s credit decision policy rules to create a personalised payment plan. More than 200 organisations are currently using Experian’s Open Banking service, many to help resolve financial hardship as a result of Covid-19 pandemic. Charities including Citizens Advice Liverpool and Mental Health & Money Advice are using the service to support clients through the pandemic, tailoring advice based on the individual’s situation.

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Macquarie CEO warns COVID turmoil to hit asset sales

Brief: Macquarie Group chief executive Shemara Wikramanayake says the turmoil unleashed by the coronavirus will make it tougher for the company to reap the benefits of asset sales, as profits dipped and it warned of extreme uncertainty. The financial group on Thursday highlighted challenging conditions across all of its businesses, with the banking division hit by rising provisions for bad loans and the global recession hampering deal-making. As the company faced shareholders for a virtual annual meeting, chairman Peter Warne also said there was a possibility it would resume dividend payments to the group from the banking division, which had been paused, but this was not certain. Macquarie is a major investor in infrastructure projects and part of its business model involves selling assets to realise the gains from these investments.

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‘The War On Covid Is Almost Over,’ Says Former Hedge Fund Manager

Brief: The evolution of media has led to a “disconnect” between the reality of coronavirus and public perception of the pandemic, according to Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research. The reality: The coronavirus crisis is in the “seventh inning,” Abeyta said on the Contrarian Investor Podcast. In six weeks, or by mid-September, there will be “maybe less than 50” daily fatalities from COVID-19, corresponding to about one 10th current levels, he says. “I think the war on COVID is almost over.” This clashes with the perception reported by media, that the U.S. doesn’t have COVID-19 under control. Cases and deaths are growing, states are forced to shut down, and the situation is spiraling out of control. So goes the narrative. This narrative misses several key facts, according to Abeyta. In the U.S., the virus has hit different regions at different times: first New York, where mortality rates were “awful,” and more recently states like Florida, Arizona, California, and Texas (the FACT states).

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Bitcoin's Hedge Fund Sharks Are Swimming With The Whales

Brief: Bitcoin is doing that thing again. After a 50% slump in the cryptocurrency’s price to about $4,000 in mid-March, when Covid-19 panic was gripping the financial markets, it has bounced back to trade at about $11,200. Veteran crypto-watchers have seen this rapid shift from fear to greed many times before, and know it can have painful consequences. The first time Bitcoin’s price went past five figures in 2017, it fueled a speculative frenzy that ended almost as soon as it began, leading to an 80% slump over 12 months. And when Bitcoin rose above $10,000 in February this year, any hope for a rally was snuffed out by Covid. The subsequent mad rush to trade digital coins for cash was made worse by the fact that many people were using large amounts of debt to back their trading. Several crypto hedge funds closed. Is anything different this time? Bitcoin’s wild price swings undermine its case as a reliable store of value or safe haven. It’s still 43% below its high of almost $20,000. But as a “store of fear” — Warren Buffett’s description of the short-term pessimism that pushes investors into cryptocurrency — it has its fans.

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New Data Shows Private Equity Industry Overwhelmingly Focused on Portfolio Company Growth, Not Cost Cutting

Brief: Private Equity Advisor, BluWave, Finds 71% of Private Equity Resources Devoted to Portfolio Companies Was Spent on Value Creation Initiatives During the Second Quarter of 2020 BluWave, a private equity-focused advisory firm, today released new data on how private equity funds are allocating resources. The results demonstrate that in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the private equity industry was far more focused on investing in portfolio companies than slashing jobs or cutting costs. Among the most common investments at portfolio companies were human capital and digitization. “We’ve seen a clear trend toward value creation over the past two years,” says Sean Mooney, CEO of BluWave. “That trend has accelerated following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although many assumed the pandemic would force private equity funds to focus on operational efficiency, cost cutting and layoffs, what we’ve actually seen is agility and a focus on valuation creation that has spurred new investment in human capital, IT and software strategy, and data-driven decision making.”

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Hedge fund giant Man Group sees assets fall 8 per cent in first half, as coronavirus crisis creates performance challenges

Brief: Man Group has seen its funds under management tumble 8 per cent this year, as investment performance took a hit and investor redemptions spiked during the coronavirus crisis - but CEO Luke Ellis says the London-headquartered publicly-traded hedge fund group remains well-positioned despite 2020’s ongoing challenges. Man’s funds under management fell to USD108.3 billion in the first six months of the year, down from USD117.7 billion at the start of January. The drop stemmed from investment performance losses of USD5.4 billion, together with USD1.2 billion of investor outflows. Negative FX translations and other movements wiped off another USD2.8 billion. Man CEO Luke Ellis conceded the first half of 2020 was a “challenging time” for the group. Man, which runs a wide assortment of discretionary and systematic investment funds across hedge fund and long-only strategies, is often considered a barometer for the UK’s broader alternative asset management industry.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Wednesday July 29, 2020:

  • The United States recorded its largest single day increase in deaths from COVID-19 since May. California, Florida and Texas, the nation’s three most populace states, accounted for more than half of the 1300 fatalities. In the Central Valley agriculture region of California, the Latino community has been hit hard, overwhelming local hospitals. In the most populated U.S. state, Latinos make up 56 per cent of those infected with the virus and 46 per cent of deaths. As the infections spike around the country, President Trump compared his dropping popularity with that of top infectious disease specialist Dr. Anthony Fauci. Trump jeered “nobody likes me” brushing off his handling of the pandemic as the reason, he added, “It can only be my personality.”

  • European airline officials have urged the Canadian government to ease what they call “problematic” coronavirus air travel restrictions. They are calling for a safe restoration of travel between Canada and Europe. A letter sent to the Canadian government from more than 12 international airlines states that “Canada’s continued entry restriction and quarantine requirements are becoming problematic.” For airlines in the European Union and Switzerland, regulations require reciprocity for air travel to resume, with the two-week quarantine required by all non-essential travelers entering the country, Canada and the EU are at a stalemate.

  • Only 49 per cent of U.K. companies expect to return to pre-pandemic quality of business by the latter half of 2021. A survey from Deloitte suggests that slightly less than half of businesses do not expect the country to make a speedy recovery. Of the companies polled, the majority of them feel negatively towards the prospect of adding jobs and further investments. “Major corporates are expecting a long haul back to pre-COVID levels of revenue,” said Ian Stewart, Deloitte’s chief economist. Likewise, more than 53 per cent of manufacturers in the U.K. intend to make redundancies in the next year according to a survey by manufacturing trade body Make UK.

  • Spanish authorities have backtracked on a controversial “immunity card” that would allow people exhibiting specific anti-bodies to frequent high-traffic areas such as gyms and bars. The previously announced card has now been squashed by the government after backlash from epidemiologists, politicians and civil rights groups. In a press conference after a cabinet meeting, deputy for the Madrid authority, Ignacio Aguado conceded that due to its swift condemnation, the cards would not be issued. In the past week Spain has seen a drastic surge in infections with nearly 1200 new cases being reported on Wednesday.
      
  • Russia is slated to approve its first coronavirus vaccine by early August and will be administering it to hospitals and front-line workers later that month. Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund that is providing financing for the vaccine has previously claimed it is safe, despite multiple assertions that it is being rushed into distribution. With new cases numbering at roughly 5000 a day, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the country is preparing for a second wave, suggesting that the situation “may worsen.”  The country has reported over 828,000 cases of the virus since the pandemic began.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

High-end Dialogue Between Shi Bo of Southern Asset Management and Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman

Brief: On July 21, 2020, Caixin International Roundtable invited Mr. Stephen A. Schwarzman, Chairman, CEO & Co-founder of The Blackstone Group, to the High-end Dialogue. Mr. Shi Bo, Deputy General Manager & Chief Investment Officer (Equity) of Southern Asset Management, had a dialogue with Mr. Schwarzman on the topic “What It Takes in a Post-Pandemic World”. During the dialogue session at the roundtable, Mr. Schwarzman introduced how Blackstone navigated the coronavirus crisis, attributed the success of Blackstone to timely learning from mistakes and resolutely capturing opportunities over the past 35 years and also shared his current focus of investment. Mr. Shi commented that Mr. Schwarzman is successful because he is contrarian and open-minded, giving him enough foresight to predict how to make the right investment. And, these two factors can also help us seek out opportunities from a crisis and thus invest successfully. Besides, Mr. Shi talked with Mr. Schwarzman on other issues, including the rationale behind Blackstone’s real estate investment, China’s real estate sector outlook and possible changes in the post-pandemic business models.

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How COVID-19 has exposed the perils of for-profit seniors’ housing

Brief: In May 2020, Orchard Villa, a long-term-care home in Pickering, made headlines for a bad COVID-19 outbreak. Just two months into Ontario’s lockdown, 77 patients in the 233-bed home had died. A report by Canada’s military revealed horrifying conditions, short staffing, and neglect. Some family members blamed for-profit ownership, arguing that COVID-19 had simply exposed, in tragic fashion, the impact of prioritizing profits in the operation of seniors’ housing. Notably, Orchard Villa had been purchased in 2015 by private-equity firm Southbridge Capital, adding it to Canada’s growing stock of “financialized” seniors’ housing — bought by financial firms as an investment product. This has followed the trend of what’s known as financialization in the global economy, in which finance has come to dominate in the operations of capitalism, prioritizing investor profits over social, environmental, and other goals. In seniors’ housing, financialization has arguably intensified the profit-seeking approach of private owners, with harmful outcomes for residents and workers alike.

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Will COVID-19 Ignite Private Equity's Dry Powder?

Brief: The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed global financial markets into a prolonged period of volatility and uncertainty, reminiscent of the 2007-08 financial crisis. Many businesses have languished since March. Private equity professionals are optimistic for the industry to adapt and play a meaningful role in a global economic recovery. Takeaways: Private equity firms are sitting on a highly concentrated source of capital available for deployment given fruitful fundraising efforts in recent years. The pandemic has spawned a number of potential investment opportunities from: (a) assisting existing portfolio businesses; (b) investing in emerging industries that have thrived in light of the current economic conditions; and (c) purchasing distressed assets or providing businesses with additional capital. Powder Reserves: Generally speaking, liquidity becomes a primary concern during market turmoil as financial institutions begin to retreat from their traditional role as market makers for bonds and financial assets. The "Big Five" banks of Canada have recently announced billions set aside during the second quarter of 2020 as loan loss provisions, concentrating on helping existing borrowers avoid default instead of extending further credit.

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Northern Trust Universe Data: Institutional Investment Returns Rebound Amid COVID-19 Market Recovery

Brief: Institutional plan sponsors saw significant investment gains during the second quarter of 2020, according to the Northern Trust Universe, with a median plan return of 10.6% as markets rebounded from a massive sell-off in equities at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of the year. The Northern Trust Universe tracks the performance of more than 320 large U.S. institutional investment plans, with a combined asset value of more than $1 trillion, which subscribe to performance measurement services as part of Northern Trust's asset servicing offerings. Public Funds had a median return of 11.14% for the second quarter, outpacing the other institutional segments tracked by Northern Trust. Corporate ERISA pension plans returned 10.55% at the median and Foundations and Endowments produced a 9.24% median return in the quarter ending June 30, 2020. "Investors’ willingness to take on additional risk propelled returns in the equity and corporate fixed income sectors, bringing those markets close to their all-time highs by the end of the second quarter," said Mark Bovier, regional head of Investment Risk and Analytical Services at Northern Trust.

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Fintech Funding Slides as Coronavirus Casts a Chill with Venture Capitalists

Brief: Aritra Chakravarty, founder of London-based online accounts and investments provider Dozens, admits it’s a tough time to be seeking up to 15 million pounds ($19 million) for a start-up. “It’s definitely a bearish market” said Chakravarty, who is seeking funding for Project Imagine, the company behind his fintech ventures. He is looking to crowd funding and government-backed COVID 19-support schemes for technology firms to make up for any reticence from venture capital investors. Data suggest his caution is warranted. Fintechs, which have been one of the hottest draws for venture capitalists in recent years, raised $6.3 billion in the second quarter, down 41% on the year, according to data from analysts at Forrester shared with Reuters. Investors and entrepreneurs say that while the COVID-19 pandemic has boosted demand for fintechs in areas such as digital payments and online trading, it has hurt more vulnerable sectors such as online lending.

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COVID-19 took a bite out of Canada's startup M&A, but deals may be coming soon

Brief: The number of deals are down, but the chatter’s not. The COVID-19 pandemic and the accompanying economic crisis have significantly reduced the number of merger and acquisition deals, especially in the Canadian startup space. But some investors and experts speaking to the Financial Post say pent-up demand and economic upheaval could lead to a wave of activity in the next little while. “There’s no question that the M&A market is heating up,” said Rick Nathan, senior managing partner with Kensington Capital, a Toronto-based investment firm that pursues a mix of venture capital investment and private equity. Kensington has backed such Canadian tech firms as D-Wave, TouchBistro and Pandora. “I certainly can’t get into anything specific, but I can tell you that several of our portfolio companies are actively considering different kinds of M&A. That could be bulking up by buying something, or it could be that they are thinking about putting themselves in play to sell the company.” Nathan said three companies in Kensington’s portfolio have been involved in M&A activity in just the past six weeks.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday July 28, 2020:

  • Republicans in the United States have unveiled their proposed $1trillion dollar COVID-19 relief bill. The contents of the bill include lowering the weekly emergency unemployment benefit payments from $600 to $200. The bill would also authorize a second round of $1200 stimulus checks. Senate Democrats are battling against lowering the unemployment benefits and would see payments remain at $600, a vote is scheduled for the upcoming days. Furthermore, President Trump’s national security adviser, Robert C. O’Brien has tested positive for the virus marking the highest-ranking official to have contracted COVID-19 thus far.

  • For the first time, Canada has approved the use of a drug to treat patients infected with COVID-19. Remdesivir, an antiviral drug manufactured under the brand name Veklury, by Gilead Sciences Canada Inc. has been approved for treatment of patients with severe symptoms caused by the virus. Remdesivir is mainly used treat those suffering from pneumonia and require extra oxygen, or a ventilator to breath. According to a Health Canada news release, the drug has been in the trial stages for six weeks and determined the “benefits outweigh its risks.” The treatment can only be applied to patients aged 12 and older, while under strict supervision from health professionals.

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson is once again on the defensive as the U.K. reported 119 new deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday. He warns that although the number of new cases has dipped in Britain, the rest of Europe may be seeing signs of a resurgence. Speaking to reporters in Nottinghamshire the Prime Minister said, “amongst some of our European friends, I'm afraid you are starting to see in some places the signs of a second wave of the pandemic." The United Kingdom continues to require anyone returning from travel outside of the country to quarantine for 14 days, although he added, “we are always looking at ways in which we can mitigate the impact of the quarantine.”

  • In Japan, thousands of companies are still waiting for their coronavirus stimulus payments to come through, forcing many business owners and their employees to find part-time work. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party promised more than $20 billion in relief payments, however, some Japanese citizens are skeptical and believe that funds are being mishandled. Dentsu Group Inc., one of Japans most influential companies with ties to Abe’s government, won the tender to distribute the relief payments but have since outsourced most of the job to smaller companies causing a delay in distributions.

  • South Africans worried about contracting the virus are avoiding hospitals even as the number of fatalities in country appear to be quite low. Just under two per cent of people who have contracted COVID-19 have died, while that stat looks impressive, authorities are saying it may be skewed. Almost every province in the country is using a different metric to track new cases and deaths, so without a uniform system of reporting “it becomes meaningless," University of Witwatersrand vaccine expert Prof Shabir Madhin says. In Port Elizabeth a new field hospital has been erected by the private sector, however, only 30 of its 1200 beds are in use.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Even Trading Floor Diehards Are Now Embracing Work From Home

Brief: For a sense of how dramatically perceptions of remote work are changing in the coronavirus era, consider Koji Motokawa. Like many traders in office-obsessed Japan, the deputy head of fixed income at Mizuho Securities Co. had never even considered working from home until the pandemic hit. Now, for the first time since he stepped onto the trading floor 25 years ago, Motokawa spends at least one day a week outside the office and plans to keep it up. “My initial thinking was that it was going to be pretty difficult given the way markets operate,” he said. “The reality is it’s actually doable.” As Covid-19 forces financial professionals around the world to re-examine the way they operate, anecdotal evidence from Japan -- ranked last among developed markets by the OECD for work-life balance -- suggests the move toward more remote work could be widespread and enduring. Tokyo-based brokerage employees from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to CLSA Ltd. report a similar shift in attitudes that they expect will outlast the pandemic. Motokawa says Mizuho has gradually beefed up its infrastructure for remote bond trading, including distributing extra screens and computers. In Tokyo, which has recorded more than 10,000 coronavirus cases, authorities have urged residents to avoid unnecessary trips outdoors but haven’t imposed blanket restrictions on working in offices.

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Invesco Earnings Falter in a Year Ravaged by the Pandemic

Brief: Invesco Ltd. is having a tough year, even by 2020 standards. Investors continued to yank money from the asset manager’s funds in the second quarter, bringing total first-half net outflows to about $31.6 billion, according to a statement Tuesday. The stock has tumbled more than 40% this year, versus a roughly 9% drop for an S&P industry index, putting it well below peers. Fee pressure and a move away from active management has hurt the Atlanta-based firm in recent years. While senior executives made a series of bets to keep pace in a changing industry, some have yet to pay off, creating concern among clients and investors. Invesco has aggressively pursued acquisitions ever since Chief Executive Officer Martin Flanagan, 60, joined from Franklin Resources Inc. in 2005. The moves helped boost assets under management to about $1.1 trillion, but two years of outflows put Invesco in a tougher position than peers, even before the crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. “They came into this downturn more vulnerable,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alison Williams. On Tuesday, the firm reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of 35 cents a share, short of the average estimate of 43 cents by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The stock slid 2.9% at 11:34 a.m. in New York.

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Boaz Weinstein Piles Up 90% Gain in Hamptons, Bets on More Chaos

Brief: It’s a hedge-fund summer idyll: Chickens strut, tomatoes grow ripe and the Atlantic breeze floats over this Hamptons refuge like a sweet balm. Here, in socially distanced splendor, Boaz Weinstein is printing money. As the pandemic consumes the outside world, Weinstein has repaired to his gated estate in Sagaponack, replete with tennis court, pool and a Vegas-style card room. When New York shut down, he left his office in the Chrysler Building and decamped to Long Island, like others from high-caste Manhattan. Unlike much of that crowd, however, Weinstein has settled here to make money -- lots of it. He’s added to his profits every month this year, trading credit and derivatives of companies including Wirecard AG, retailers Staples Inc. and Macy’s Inc. and loading up on cheap closed-end mutual funds. That’s helped him outperform all of his hedge fund peers, generating an eye-popping 90% gain in his main fund after years of uneven returns. He’s attracting new money, pulling in $1 billion to his now $3 billion Saba Capital Management. And he sees room to profit, even as stocks and bonds rebound. “Markets are at an unstable place right now. I look out at the next five months, and there are lots of known unknowns,” he said in a phone interview, pointing to everything from the course of the pandemic to the U.S. election and relations with China.

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Hedge Funds in North America Attract Investors Seeking Haven

Brief: Hedge funds based in North America are providing a haven to investors grappling with rising U.S.-China tensions and a global economy stalled by the Covid-19 pandemic. About 32% of allocators plan to increase investments to North America-based managers, compared with 18% at the start of the year, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. survey found. Most other regions, including Asia-Pacific, saw decreased interest. “Covid has created a lot more investment opportunities,” said Michael Monforth, global head of capital advisory at JPMorgan. “In some respects, there is a safe haven element to investors wanting to invest in the U.S., but it’s also being driven by the investment opportunity.” Investors are betting on hedge funds headquartered in North America as the world deals with a pandemic that’s halted commerce and sparked turbulence across markets. Escalating Chinese-American tensions remain a concern as the two superpowers have clashed on issues ranging from trade to the early handling of the coronavirus.

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World’s largest hedge fund, based in Connecticut, cuts dozens from staff as coronavirus takes toll

Brief: Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, has laid off dozens of employees as the pandemic has hit the company’s bottom line. In an emailed statement, Bridgewater, based in Westport, said employees will be working more from home “so we won’t need the same number of support people, new technologies are changing what type of people we need and how we serve our clients, and we also want to become more efficient.” As a result, the shifts “will produce more than normal attrition in terms of people leaving the firm this year,” but it won’t be “greatly more than normal,” it said. Those leaving Bridgewater will receive “generous severance and extended health coverage,” according to the statement. The statement did not detail how many employees are affected, but The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the layoffs Friday, said several dozen were involved. Those cut worked in the research, client-services and recruiting, according to the newspaper.

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Private Equity and COVID-19: Lessons From the Global Financial Crisis

Brief: As businesses seek to address both the immediate and long-term effects of COVID-19 on their operations, the reinsurance industry is at the forefront of conversations to create a forward-looking solution for pandemic risk in conjunction with policyholders, insurance markets and key policymakers. Countries across the developed and emerging world are trying to manage the severe economic short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. Given the immense uncertainty, it will take much longer to even begin to assess the permanent implications for the world’s populations, companies and economies. The ultimate effects will, in large part, be dependent on the duration of the crisis, the length and depth of which is currently generating speculations and requires substantial analysis, according to William T. Charlton, Jr., PhD., CFA, Global Head of Private Markets Data Analytics and Research at Mercer. Mercer is an affiliate of Guy Carpenter. Due to the inherent lag in private market reporting, even the initial impact on private markets will take considerable time to fully evaluate. However, the behavior of private markets during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) may provide some insight into the potential short-term and long-term expectations of private markets in the current crisis.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Monday July 27, 2020:

  • In the last week, eighteen states in America have shattered records for new daily cases of the novel-coronavirus, COVID-19. The United States has now reached over 150,000 deaths due to complications surrounding the virus. Starting Monday, the country has begun the first Phase 3 clinical trials for a vaccine. According to biotechnology company Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health, the trial will be administered to 30,000 adults at nearly 100 different research sites. Each participant will be given two 100-microgram injections of the vaccine or a placebo roughly 28 days apart. Results indicated the Phase 1 and Phase 2 vaccinations proved to induce immune responses in all of the participants and are viewed as safe for further study.

  • It’s been just over 6 months since the first case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in Canada. Since then more than 110,000 cases have been confirmed in the country and over 9000 deaths have been recorded to due complications associated with the virus. Leading health officials in the country unanimously agree that on average, Canada has fared better than most of the world in terms of dealing with the pandemic. Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infectious disease specialist based in Mississauga, Ontario said that the majority of Canadian hospitals were not wholly overwhelmed, “we never were at a point where we felt appreciably out of control.”

  • In the United Kingdom, prohibitions have been put in place for travelers looking for a summer escape. The U.K. will no longer allow its residents to travel to Spain for vacations as the number of new Spanish cases rose to 12,166 last week. Nearly 10,000 flights were scheduled to fly from Britain to Spain in the coming weeks. The Spanish government is now urging the U.K. to reconsider its quarantine of the Balearic and Canary islands, where cases are low but are now once again on the rise.

  • Despite having the third highest number of cases globally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi claims that the country has “proved the world wrong,” but conceded “we need to remain vigilant. We have to remember that coronavirus is still as dangerous as it was in the beginning.” The number of new cases in India rose to 48,661 on Sunday and is particularly prevalent in Delhi, the country worst hit city. The state government has increased testing in the area and has begun to adapt thousands of train coaches to house make-shift hospital beds.

  • The government of Hong Kong has imposed a ban on gatherings larger than two people as a reaction to surging cases in the region. It is now mandatory to wear a mask in both indoor and outdoor spaces with fines for failing to do so will range up to 5000 Hong Kong dollars or $645 dollars U.S. The city is now facing what residents are calling a third wave, with a new makeshift hospital being set up near the airport. Since the beginning of the pandemic only 20 people have died in the city, but officials are taking precautions as cases are climbing by more than 100 a day. The relatively low case load has been attributed to strict rules preventing non-residents from entering the city.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Hazeltree and Northern Trust Collaborate to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 on Alternative Asset Managers

Brief: Hazeltree, a leading provider of cloud-based treasury management and portfolio finance solutions, and Northern Trust Alternative Fund Services (NTAFS) today published a report, “Weathering the 2020 Storm: Market Volatility, Location Disruption and Record Volumes.” The analysis examines the market impact of COVID-19, highlighting new operational challenges facing investment managers that require immediate attention. The analysis observes trends across both NTAFS and Hazeltree clients and: compares liquidity metrics experienced in March/April 2020 versus prior periods as tracked by NTAFS and Hazeltree.  Highlights the emphasis placed upon cash and liquidity management practices during these uncertain times. Details a new range of concerns from investors, introducing questions managers can expect during investor operational due diligence reviews. Stresses the importance of robust processes and technology to effectively manage cash, liquidity and collateral during this new “work from home” operating model.“Asset managers faced pressure beginning in March, not only from market volatility, but also from needing to execute on critical operational functions in a work-from-home environment,” said Peter Sanchez, Head of Alternative Fund and Omnium Business Services, Northern Trust. “The challenges highlight the importance for alternative fund managers to have the scalability, security and systems to operationally manage such a crisis – whether in-house or through a partnership with a Fund Administrator or another provider.”

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Koch online toolkit helping businesses reopen after Covid-19

Brief: A major Koch Industries Inc. subsidiary has created an online toolkit for businesses wanted to reopen safely after pandemic-related closures. The platform is called Hygiene Ready and was developed by GP PRO, the commercial division of Georgia-Pacific. It pulls from resources made available by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the World Health Organization. The GP PRO team began putting Hygiene Ready together in March and its Wichita-based parent company, Koch, highlighted those efforts in a recent article on its website. The company says that the toolkit is geared toward any business looking to safely reopen, including restaurants, retail stores, event venues and industrial facilities. It also includes training materials and updated links to Covid-19 news and guidance.

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Wells Fargo Scales Back Business

Brief: Wells Fargo & Co. is slashing costs, cutting staff and tightening up on lending to ride out the coronavirus recession. Its rivals might not be too far behind. The fourth-largest U.S. lender entered the pandemic in worse shape than its peers. The bank is still clawing its way back from a 2016 fake-account scandal that put it on the wrong side of customers and regulators. Revenue has fallen for two years in a row, and the bank recently reported its first quarterly loss since 2008. "We have not done what is necessary to run an efficient company," Chief Executive Charles Scharf said in a memo to employees this month. Wells's mix of challenges is forcing it to cut costs first, but it might not be the last. The bank's approach to belt- tightening could offer some clues about what is to come for the rest of the industry. Other big banks cut billions of dollars in costs and laid off thousands of employees after the last financial crisis, putting them in a better position to withstand this one. Some have pledged not to lay off employees in 2020. Whether they are forced to make cuts later on will depend on the length and severity of the recession.

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Covid-19 could be trigger for widespread mandate losses

Brief: Investment managers with poorer performance through the Covid-19 crisis are set to see a high number of mandate losses, research suggests. Investors in hedge funds and smart beta were among the most dissatisfied with recent performance. In a survey of 368 institutional investors and family offices, 48% said they were disappointed with hedge fund returns and 64% said the same for ‘alternative risk premia’, which is usually known as smart beta. Emerging market debt also disappointed 53% of investors, the Bfinance research showed. As much as 54% of the asset owners are terminating or likely to terminate managers based primarily on their 2020 performance, including more than 80% of family offices. Apart from hedge funds, smart beta and emerging market bonds, active strategies received positive feedback, Bfinance said, and the vast majority of investors – or 82% - said they were satisfied with how their portfolios had performed.

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Hedge Fund Fees in Free Fall Is the New Reality For a Humbled Industry

Brief: Hedge-fund fees had already been shrinking before the pandemic ripped through global markets. Now, they’re in terminal decline. One of London’s fastest-growing hedge funds is enticing new investors by agreeing to forgo performance fees until returns hit a key threshold. In Hong Kong, a fund boss is offering to cover all losses, a concession that’s almost unheard of in this rarefied world. And famed investor Kyle Bass has told clients he’ll charge his usual 20% cut of profits only if he earns triple-digit returns in a new fund he has started. Long notorious for charging high fees, the $3 trillion industry runs portfolios that are generally open only to institutions and affluent individuals. It’s going to extraordinary lengths to attract new money as the coronavirus pandemic triggers losses and accelerates an investor exodus that has plagued the industry for years. Many of the world’s most prominent managers have come to the stark realization that they need to upend the “two and-twenty” fee model that’s been a fixture for decades if they want to expand. For some smaller firms, the goal isn’t growth. It’s survival.

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Economic slowdown hits the alternative lending business

Brief: The coronavirus pandemic is hitting alternative lenders hard, with business down substantially, a handful of mortgage investment corporations stopping investors from redeeming their funds and others trying to offload their portfolios of home loans. In Ontario, mortgage registrations by private lenders fell 26 per cent in June over the same month last year, according to Teranet, which operates the province’s electronic land registry system. That followed a 45-per-cent decline in May and a 29-per-cent drop in April, when real estate sales plunged, and private lenders halted loans to assess the economic rout. Industry experts say the downturn will reveal where the weaknesses are in the sector. “The tide is going out right now. We’ll see very quickly who was naked this whole time in the private mortgage world,” said Dustin Van Der Hout, investment adviser with Richardson GMP Ltd.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.