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Covid-19 Diligence Briefing

Our briefing for Wednesday November 4, 2020:

  • In the United States, those hoping for a clear-cut answer on who their new President would be to lead their country out of the coronavirus pandemic, will likely have to wait a few more days. Several states are still counting mail-in ballots such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. With many states being decided by razor-thin margins, the Trump administration has already made it known they plan to challenge apparent close loses by demanding recounts, such as Wisconsin and even suing to stop the count in Michigan. On election day, data from Johns Hopkins University reported 91,530 new coronavirus cases in the country – their second highest since the pandemic began. 

  • United Kingdom lawmakers have approved Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for a new national lockdown in overwhelming fashion. A total of 516 MPs voted for the restrictions while only 38 voted against. The lockdown restrictions will come into effect as of midnight on Thursday and last until December 2nd. Prime Minister Johnson said he hoped the country could return to the tiered system on a local and regional basis after the lockdown period ends.

  • In Canada, the country’s most populous province has introduced a new colour-coded system to communicate what regions are under what restrictions when it comes to the coronavirus. Ontario revealed the details on Tuesday where a region could be placed into one of five colour-coded categories based on the level of virus spread within their communities and the capacity of their hospitals. Under the new system four regions – Toronto, Peel, Ottawa and York will be set into the “orange” restrict category, as of November 7th or November 14th in Toronto’s case. Those regions would be allowed to reopen gyms and serve patrons in bars or restaurants, under certain restrictions. Some public health experts have come out against the new colour-coded system expressing concern that the threshold for tightening restrictions in the hardest hit areas is set too high. 

  • Italy is set to launch into its newest form of coronavirus restrictions as of Thursday. Prime Minister Giuseppe plans to impose a 10 PM to 5 AM curfew across the country until December 3rd. Along with the curfew, Italians in the highest risk zones will be told to stay within their city or town and will be allowed to leave only for specific business or health reasons. Stores deemed to be non-essential, as well as bars and restaurants would also be closed in high-risk zones.

  • In Indonesia, a senior government minister announced on Wednesday the plans to inoculate nine million citizens with an experimental COVID-19 vaccine from China. The shot will come from Chinese drugmaker Sinovac Biotech and the vaccination drive is separate from Phase 3 clinical trials, also from Sinovac, which is happening in conjunction with Indonesia’s state-owned biotech firm Bio Farma. The government official said the inoculation plan would likely start in the third week of December. 

  • The Premier for New South Wales in Australia said via social media the borders between the country’s two most populous provinces will open soon. “On Monday, 23 November, the NSW/Victoria border will reopen. We will need to keep moving forward as we live with COVID-19. I have confidence that everyone will continue to work hard to keep everyone safe,” said Premier Gladys Berejiklian in a tweet. The border between New South Wales and Victoria has been closed since July when the second wave hit Victoria state and forced Melbourne into an almost four-month lockdown.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

British Banks Denied Pandemic Loans to Over 150,000 Companies

Brief: British banks turned down more than 150,000 applications for government-guaranteed business loans during the Covid-19 outbreak in an effort to prevent fraud, according to the industry watchdog. The Financial Conduct Authority told lenders not to relax their checks on potential borrowers when they offered credit under the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan and Bounce Back Loan programs, according to Chief Executive Officer Nikhil Rathi. “Our understanding is that approximately 14% of CBILS loans were denied because of concerns around diligence and 8% of BBLS loans upon first application,” Rathi told a virtual session with a U.K. parliament committee on Wednesday. The programs, intended to fund smaller companies, have received more than 1.6 million applications since their introduction in May. Bounce Back loans have proved most popular, with companies receiving about 40 billion pounds ($52 billion) so far, but some critics have pointed to loose eligibility criteria that left lenders open to potential fraud. The initiative was launched “at great speed” to meet the need for corporate funding after the country went into lockdown, said Rathi, who took over as head of the FCA in October. The regulator made it clear that “banks must maintain relevant systems” especially when taking on new customers, he said.

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Investors Sell Out of European and UK Equity Funds as Second Wave Sweeps Continent

Brief: Investors sold UK and Europe-focused equity funds in October as governments battled to curb Covid-19 infections with another round of restrictions. Across Europe, a record 1.5 million new cases of the virus were registered last week, prompting Germany, France, and Belgium to declare nationwide lockdowns. Equity funds focused on UK were the worst hit, shedding GBP358 million of outflows over the month according to data from Calastone. The UK has also announced a new national lockdown, which has done further damage to investor sentiment, already suffering from the failure of negotiations with the EU to agree a trade deal. Income funds, which are disproportionately exposed to UK equities, also suffered their worst ever month as GBP763 million left the sector. Meanwhile, European equity funds suffered outflows of GBP69 million, to the benefit of funds focused on North America and Asia, which saw inflows. Data from Morningstar shows that European funds performed poorly in October, with Europe-focused funds from Robeco, Schroders, Janus Henderson, Fidelity, and J O Hambro all ranking among the 10 lowest returning funds for the month. 

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Working From Home Spurs Investment in Real Assets

Brief: Institutional investors are planning increased allocations to real assets over the next 12 months due to the lasting impact of Covid-19 on world economies, including the working-from-home trend, research has suggested. Nearly half of insurers and 37% of pension funds globally say they expect to increase investment in real asset strategies amidst ongoing uncertainty, according to the study by Aviva Investors. ‘Real estate long income’ was identified as the preferred asset class by over 50% of insurers and 45% of pension funds, while debt strategies were also favoured highly. The report also highlighted the increased efforts of investors to align their portfolios with net-zero emissions targets. Nearly 60% of insurers and 48% of pension funds are looking towards “energy-efficient real estate assets”, the report found. Meanwhile, the acceleration of the working from home trend by the pandemic is expected by many institutions to provide the “greatest opportunity” for real assets investing over the long-term.  Mark Versey, chief investment officer of Aviva Investors’ real assets division, said: “Whilst Covid-19 clearly had an immediate and profound impact on the built environment, many investors have seen these changes as the acceleration of existing structural shifts. 

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A Unique Opportunity for Private Equity Firms

Brief: The private equity industry is currently navigating a number of challenges in addition to the Covid-19 pandemic, which the whole world is facing. As regulation and political will around environment, social and governance (ESG) factors grows, PE firms are coming under increased pressure to incorporate this approach into their investment strategies. These firms are also keeping a close eye on the progress of the Brexit negotiations to make sure to maintain their access to Europe. “Covid-19 has presented much uncertainty and many challenges to the global private equity industry and market perspectives are mixed. However, this uncertainty has offered some private equity firms, who are fortunate enough to have plenty of dry powder, or who may have recently completed large closings, a unique opportunity to invest in assets at interesting price points.  “It also affords private equity firms the opportunity to be closer to their portfolio companies, invest in businesses suffering from the pandemic and demonstrate added value by putting the sizeable amounts of capital they have to work. It would not be surprising, once the economic impact of Covid-19 filters through, to see private equity taking a more active role in the debt markets and continuing a trend, which has been prevalent since the global financial crisis,” says Johan Terblanche, Managing Partner and head of the Luxembourg Funds & Investment Management team at the Maples Group. So, while markets have been hit by downturns and recessions in the past, the rapidly changing situation is also presenting challenges for private equity firms and private equity fund vehicles globally.

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Adapting and Responding to Change

Brief: Uncertainty remains the order of the day as the world heads into a period of slow recovery which risks being scuppered by a variety of factors including the US elections, trade tensions and the prolonged impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Financial services practitioners in Luxembourg, like their peers in other jurisdictions, have had to navigate this volatile environment while continuing to provide a seamless service to clients. “The crisis has been a strong accelerator of change by spotlighting our resilience, as well as our ability to adapt. While organisations are considering how to accommodate working from home to a greater extent, the reduction of face-to-face contact may in turn have a detrimental impact on collaboration, connectedness and productivity. To that end, the need for support in this profound cultural change should not be minimised,” details a report published by the Digital Banking and FinTech Innovation Cluster of the Luxembourg Bankers’ Association (ABBL) and KPMG Luxembourg.  Although much in the world has obviously changed, ALFI chair Corinne Lamesch told delegates at the organisation’s virtual conference that following the initial Covid shock in February and March, total assets under management in Luxembourg rebounded to EUR4.6 trillion at the end of July, approaching the all-time peak set in January. “At least for now, Luxembourg’s role as the world’s leading cross-border fund centre remains unchallenged,” she said.

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Fund Managers Flag Concerns About Proposed FCA Rules

Brief: Property fund managers have raised concerns over the City watchdog’s proposals to enforce a six-month redemption period, claiming the rules could reduce consumer choice and create problems for other parts of the market. Earlier this year the Financial Conduct Authority published a consultation paper floating rules which would require investors to give notice — potentially up to 180 days— before their investment is redeemed from an open-ended property fund. But some fund managers have raised red flags for how the rules would work in practice as the consultation comes to an end today (November 3). A spokesperson from Columbia Threadneedle said the asset manager did not support the FCA’s proposals, arguing the rules would limit investors’ access to such portfolios. The spokesperson said: “The proposed change would mean these funds become unavailable to retail investors, reducing customer choice and preventing access to an asset class that is an important risk and return diversifier and income-generator.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday November 3, 2020:

  • In the United States, millions of Americans are heading to the election polls on Tuesday. More than 100 million votes have already been cast, either via mail, or early voting, which is needed as according to Johns Hopkins University data, 21 states hit records in the number of average daily new coronavirus cases reported. Key battleground states including Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania are among the 21 states with cases ranging anywhere from 2,300 to 3,500 per day. The coronavirus pandemic has become a defining issue for the 2020 election with health experts claiming the country is heading for a dark winter with a steady increase in cases, while the Trump administration is stating vaccines will be ready within weeks, which will be key to turning the corner.
  • Canada’s opposition government leader is saying Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberal government support programs for COVID-19 still aren’t doing enough to help businesses and workers survive. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole will present a motion on Tuesday demanding the government provide “additional flexibility” in the commercial rent subsidy, wage subsidy and other support programs. “We aren’t talking about enriching businesses here. We want to make sure requirements are made more flexible so businesses can simply stay open and their employees don’t lose their jobs,” said O’Toole. The opposition leader’s criticisms come one day after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled legislation to make changes to the commercial rent subsidy. 
  • The United Kingdom government announced they plan to test all residents and workers in Liverpool for COVID-19 – regardless of whether they have symptoms on Friday. The region was first to be placed on the “very high” tier by the Boris Johnson government’s COVID-19 alert system. The Liverpool mayor said the mass testing in a few days would help to quickly identify people who have the virus and reduce transmission. According to government data, the Liverpool region has some of the highest infection rates in Britain – weekly cases currently stand at 410.4 per 100,000 as of October 25th. 
  • In France, government officials are becoming increasingly frustrated with too many people ignoring COVID-19 lockdown rules as cases soar in the country. Therefore, government officials are considering reimposing a night curfew on Paris and possibly the surrounding region. “It’s unbearable for those who respect the rules to see other French people flouting them,” said a government spokesperson. 
  • In the Philippines, military camps will store coronavirus vaccines once they become available. President Rodrigo Duterte has chosen a retired general to lead efforts to secure and distribute vaccines. President Duterte has said in the past he will prioritize COVID-19 vaccines from China and Russia and wants soldiers to take the first inoculations.
  • According to state media in Dubai, the Prime Minister and Vice President of the United Arab Emirates (UAB), Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid al-Maktoum has received a COVID-19 vaccine inoculation. Al-Maktoum shared the moment on social media, showing him receiving the shot from a medical worker, although it is unclear which vaccination inoculation he received. The country’s health minister stated UAB has approved China’s state owned Sinopharm vaccine for use on the country’s emergency frontline workers.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

New Yorkers and Londoners are Ditching Cities for Suburbs

Brief: Real-estate companies are seeing clear evidence of New Yorkers and Londoners ditching city centers for suburbs as the pandemic changes the way people live and work. IWG Plc, which operates Regus-branded serviced offices in cities around the world, has seen a “a strong pick-up in demand” for suburban space versus major cities, especially in places reliant on commuting. While deals for its downtown New York offices have collapsed by 30% since the virus outbreak earlier this year, activity in southern Connecticut has surged more than 40%, according to a statement Tuesday. Across the pond, U.K. housebuilder Crest Nicholson Holdings Plc’s expected slump in full-year profit may not be as bad as previously flagged, partly thanks to developments in southern England outside of London, it said in a quarterly update. A “structural change to the balance of office and home working” featured strongly in customers’ buying decisions, it said. Shares in IWG climbed as much as 11% in Tuesday morning trading in London, while Crest Nicholson shares jumped as much as 22.5%, the most on record. The pandemic has turned the world’s financial capitals into ghost towns as nervous workers avoid mass commuting. While cities across Europe showed signs of recovery in the summer, a resurgent wave of the virus has prompted a series of new lockdowns in the region. New York is also tightening restrictions amid rising infections nationwide.

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SEC Enforcement Office Hits $4.7 Billion Record

Brief: SEC enforcement officials posted a record $4.7 billion in disgorgements and penalties in fiscal year 2020, the Securities and Exchange Commission reported Monday in its annual enforcement report for the period ending Sept. 30. Parties charged by the SEC were ordered to disgorge $3.6 billion and pay penalties of $1.1 billion, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year. More than $600 million was returned to harmed investors. The fiscal year also saw a record for the SEC's whistleblower program, which awarded $175 million. The agency's 715 enforcement actions covered a range of issues, including issuer disclosure, foreign bribery, market manipulation and insider trading. The number of actions fell 17% as agency officials adjusted to COVID-19 work restrictions. Stephanie Avakian, SEC enforcement director, said in the report that one focus during the past year was accuracy in financial statements and issuer disclosures. Along with traditional sources for such cases, SEC enforcement officials also used risk-based analysis to identify potential violations, including earnings management practices that could be masking unexpectedly weak performances and disclosure of corporate perks.

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Jeremy Grantham Says This Is the Solution to America’s Biggest Problems

Brief: There’s a “magic bullet” for some of the biggest challenges facing the U.S. economy, according to famed value investor Jeremy Grantham. In an investor note dated October 30, the GMO co-founder called for a “new Marshall Plan” to combat problems including “depressed” economic growth, rising wealth inequality, and climate change. “The economy of the developed world has been steadily becoming less dynamic for the last 50 years and the GDP growth of the developed world has fallen from over four percent a year to less than two percent a year,” Grantham wrote. “We need a long, sustained, and massive public works program — a second coming of the Marshall Plan, if you will — to jolt the U.S. and the global economy into a few decades of accelerated growth.” The Marshall Plan, also known as the European Recovery Program, was a U.S. foreign aid initiative to help rebuild Western European cities and infrastructure that were damaged during World War II. Grantham said a similar program could be enacted now to build green infrastructure that would mitigate climate change. “We face the shorter-term economic threat from Covid-19 and the long-term economic threat from climate change,” he wrote. “We have a clear incentive, I would argue an imperative, to produce a very large and sustained public works program.”

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Remote Working Could Accelerate a Regionalisation of the US Hedge Fund Industry

Brief: Zoom has been the ultimate success story for 2020 as firms, globally, have adjusted to remote working. If I think about what the next best thing to Zoom will be, I would say it needs to be something that gives you the ability to walk into someone’s computer just as easily as walking into their office. At the moment, my experience of Zoom is that everything is still formalised and diarised…I’ll talk to you at 10am, let’s set the meeting for 5pm. What’s wrong with doing a quick meeting at 10.15? It still feels a bit regimented, in that regard. But Zoom and other platforms like Microsoft Teams have at least shown fund managers a glimpse into the future of how we might all be working.  In the past months I have noted that firms have managed to transition far more seamlessly than they might have anticipated to being able to efficiently collaborate with their entire team connected only by their screens and telephones. One idea to help create community is conduct “office hours” on Zoom.  When we are in our offices we are able to be seen either at our desk that may be in an open environment or if in an office through the glass walls. Anyone can see you as they walk by. Those spontaneous conversations are what is missing by members of the team working independently, remotely. Why should working outside of the office environment mean that no one can see us unless they arrange in advance and schedule it?

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Private Equity Rides to Support European Firms

Brief: Private equity funds injected €36 billion into European companies in the first half of the year, helping them combat the “intense liquidity crisis” caused by lockdowns. The investment came as private equity funds in Europe raised €49 billion in H1, matching the previous half-year’s total. Invest Europe, an industry body, said the industry was on track to raise a sum of money for the full year that would be on a par with average fundraising levels achieved over the last three years. However, the overall figure for private equity investment was 17% lower in value . Invest Europe’s ‘Investing in Europe: Private Equity Activity H1 2020’ also shows that private equity backed 3,401 companies during the period, with about 60% of investment value going into follow-on investments. In addition, venture capital investment achieved a new half-year record with €5.6 billion invested into start-ups and scale-ups.

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Oaktree Braces for Turmoil as Elections, ‘Economic Strain’ Loom

Brief: Oaktree Capital Management is warning credit investors to brace for unpleasant surprises in the fourth quarter, as U.S. elections loom amid the persisting pandemic. “More than ever, it is important to be wary of market exuberance and to avoid chasing risky investment opportunities to tighter levels or weaker legal protections,” Oaktree said in its third-quarter credit report, released this month. “September’s turbulence interrupted what had been a resounding recovery from the depths of the selloff in the spring, and markets now look to have entered a sideways period.” The alternative investment firm, co-founded by Howard Marks, cited its concerns over the rising cases of Covid-19, the U.S. elections, and Brexit. Industries are under stress as business activities fall off in the pandemic, while companies are shouldering heavier debt loads, the firm said.  “The economic strain produced by Covid-19 will be felt for several more quarters, if not years,” Oaktree said in the report. “We remain focused on protecting the downside in our investments.”

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Monday November 2, 2020:

  • In the United Kingdom, it was a chaotic weekend to say the least. It started Saturday evening after Prime Minister Boris Johnson was forced to announce a nationwide month-long shutdown will come into effect as of Thursday after the government’s plans were leaked to numerous national newspapers Friday evening. The original plan was to announce these new measures on Monday. Instead, Prime Minister Johnson is now dealing with the fallout today from his announcement that will see a strict lockdown with the closure of pubs, restaurants and non-essential businesses, including hair salons and gyms. Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative MPs are questioning the move, some already stating they won’t be voting in favour of the lockdown once it goes to a parliamentary vote on Wednesday. The opposition Labour Party is slamming the government for not moving on the nationwide lockdown sooner. Even the aviation industry is chiming in after finding out via the Prime Minister’s announcement on Saturday the lockdown also included a ban on leisure travel, something the industry was not consulted on or made aware of until the rushed news conference.

  • In the United States, the White House administration has criticized the country’s leading infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci after comments made to the Washington Post over the weekend. Dr. Fauci, a key member of the coronavirus task force, criticized President Donald Trump’s administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, along with Dr. Scott Atlas, who has taken a more prominent role in the administration’s thought process on the pandemic. “It’s unacceptable and breaking with all norms for Dr. Fauci, a senior member of the President’s Coronavirus Taskforce and someone who has praised President Trump’s actions throughout the pandemic, to choose three days before an election to play politics,” said White House deputy press secretary Judd Deere. During one of his many pre-election rallies over the weekend, President Trump tossed out the idea of firing Dr. Fauci after the election following the crowd chanting, “Fire Fauci”.

  • In Canada, British Columbia’s health minister is warning of a record number of COVID-19 cases starting as of Monday, after seeing record numbers last week. The province’s latest case count will include results from Friday through Monday with the health minister already warning the cases in Metro Vancouver, the province’s most populous city and third largest in the country, will be especially high. On Halloween night over the weekend, large crowds gathered on Vancouver city streets partying and gathering, which irritated the health minister, especially after Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry asked people last week to avoid the exact kind of behavior that occurred. 

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel is referencing back to World War II when describing the country’s ability to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. “This is a very big test of our resolve, one that we haven’t seen since World War II,” said Merkel after a meeting with the German virus task force. Chancellor Merkel called the pandemic a once-in-a-century challenge and urged Germans to remain vigilant and abide by hygiene and social distancing rules, so that their health care services have a fighting chance. The latest pandemic restrictions, which started on Monday in Germany are aimed at reducing social contact by closing bars and restaurants.

  • Italy will tighten national health restrictions as of Wednesday. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte told parliament on Monday and called for action to stop the rapid spread of the coronavirus “as quickly as possible”. The new measures include the option of night-time curfews, distance learning for middle schools, cutting back on using public transport as well as limiting movement between regions with large numbers of cases if needed.

  • With all the news of oncoming restrictions for countries dealing with the second wave, the recent success of Australia can be a demonstration of what a lockdown can do to turn the tide in the pandemic. On Sunday, Australia recorded its first day with no local cases of coronavirus transmission since June. The milestone comes as some state governments ease domestic travel restrictions and Melbourne, the country’s second largest city continues to emerge from its three-month lockdown. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has a goal for Australia to be a country without domestic border restrictions by Christmas.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Ken Griffin’s Macro ‘Dream’ Propels Net Worth to $20 Billion

Brief: Ken Griffin was facing a calamity. As Covid-19 roiled the economy in March, equities tanked and bond markets went haywire. Hedge funds run by Griffin’s Citadel were taking losses as the computer models that guide some of their decisions struggled to comprehend the pandemic. For Griffin, it was also a chance to profit from some of the biggest opportunities in his 30-year career. His traders went to work scouring beaten-down credit markets, snapping up finance-company debt and taking advantage of wild fluctuations globally. “It was a macro trader’s dream,” Griffin, 52, said during an event last week for the Robin Hood Foundation, a New York-based non-profit. Citadel wanted to put money to work “when people are panicking,” he said. Like many hedge funds, Griffin’s firm suffered drops during those harrowing days in March, and, like many rivals, also benefited from unprecedented moves by the Federal Reserve and the promise of a $2 trillion stimulus package from Congress. Paul Tudor Jones, who interviewed Griffin at the event, described the Fed’s actions as “so incredible and breathtaking you almost couldn’t even believe it at the time.” So much so, even the legendary hedge fund manager said he didn’t take advantage as much as he should have.

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Institutional Investors Continue to Build Real Assets Exposure, says Aviva Investors Report

Brief: Global institutional investors are set to prioritise investments into real assets over the next 12 months, as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to have a lasting impact on global economies and financial markets, according to the latest edition of Aviva Investors’ Real Assets Study. The Study, based on responses from over 1,000 decision-makers at insurers and pension funds representing over EUR2 trillion of assets under management, found that 49 per cent of insurers and 37 per cent of pension funds are expecting to increase their allocation to real assets investment strategies. When asked which real asset markets they expect to increase allocation to over the next 12 months, both insurers and pension funds (54 per cent and 45 per cent respectively) identified real estate long income as their preferred asset class. Beyond this, insurers highlighted the desire to increase their exposure to debt strategies, with infrastructure debt (48 per cent), real estate debt (46 per cent) and private corporate debt (46 per cent) all expected to see increased investment. Pension funds demonstrated a similar view, expecting to increase their exposure to real estate debt (39 per cent), private corporate debt (39 per cent) and infrastructure debt (37 per cent).

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Oaktree, Reef Technology Launch $300 Million Property Fund

Brief: Reef Technology Inc., a startup that manages hubs in parking lots used for food delivery and other services such as Covid-19 testing, launched a $300 million fund in partnership with Oaktree Capital Management LP. Reef and Oaktree’s infrastructure arm have formed the Neighborhood Property Group to acquire strategic real estate assets, the companies told Bloomberg News on Monday. The new business will partly target areas experiencing population booms after people left cities such as New York and San Francisco because of the pandemic. Miami-based Reef is also exploring a capital raise to fund its expansion, according to people familiar with the matter. The targeted valuation of the startup, formerly known as ParkJockey, couldn’t immediately be learned, but Reef was valued at $1 billion when SoftBank Group Corp. acquired a stake in 2018. “Reef fits our thesis that core parking facilities should be augmented with technology to transform these core assets into mobility infrastructure hubs,” Josh Connor, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree’s infrastructure investing strategy and chairman of Neighborhood Property Group, said in an emailed statement. “These alternative uses support communities with critical last block logistics solutions such as food delivery, micro-mobility, same-day parcel delivery, essential groceries and electric charging infrastructure.”

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Lazard Snaps up PJT Restructuring Banker as COVID Second Wave Hits

Brief: Lazard Ltd has hired restructuring banker Sam Whittaker from PJT Partners to oversee negotiations between companies and their creditors across Europe, the Middle East and Africa as a second wave of COVID-19 leaves many businesses fighting for survival. Whittaker, who started his banking career at Lazard LAZ.N in 2005 and then moved to fellow investment bank PJT in 2015, will re-join Lazard as a London-based managing director in its EMEA restructuring franchise The 45-year old Briton will work closely with David Burlison, who co-heads Lazard’s EMEA restructuring practice, and Chris Mallon, who joined Lazard in April as a senior adviser. “One of the many benefits of having Sam back is that he has an extensive network of relationships with banks, hedge funds and lawyers which clearly is a big plus for us,” Burlison told Reuters. The U.S. bank, which leads Refinitiv’s league tables for this year’s global restructurings ahead of PJT Partners and Houlihan Lokey, has also hired James Simpson as a director in October as part of a push to win business on behalf of companies with liquidity issues and their creditors.

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Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 Across Real Estate Sectors

Brief: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devasting toll on human life, and has impacted economies and industries globally. The effect on real estate is significant, as real estate can be considered a service sector that fulfills end-user demand. But the sectors within real estate have not been equally affected. So which are the sectors that have shown to be more resilient during the pandemic and could potentially provide downside protection to a real estate portfolio? It is important to determine whether the negative impacts we have already experienced are short term and temporary in nature, or if they are part of longer lasting structural changes in real estate demands. Recently, CAIA Association and MSCI Real Estate discussed some of the long-term trends in real estate, as well as the pandemic’s impact on various real estate sectors. In this article, I explore two perspectives to further understand the pandemic’s effect. The S&P 500, a key US stock market index, has made a V-shaped recovery and has since posted a YTD return of 7.9%[i]. Other US indexes have also rebounded. This robust recovery shown by US equity markets is largely fueled by the unprecedented central bank stimulus and government fiscal policies. Importantly, the recovery is led by the technology sector, while many other sectors continue to languish.

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Family Offices Increasingly Popular in Mainland China, Hong Kong

Brief: More high-net-worth (HNW) families in Hong Kong and mainland China are setting up family offices as a way to manage their assets and address any potential challenges of passing these assets down to the next generation, according to a recent KPMG report. “An increasing trend in mainland China, and even more so in Hong Kong, is establishing a family office to operate the family business and manage assets,” says Karmen Yeung, partner, KPMG Private Enterprise in China. “Family members often don’t have the knowledge to work through governance, legal, tax and succession issues and, therefore, are looking for outside expertise. Especially for families that have assets in multiple countries, the family office model can help them to better understand and manage the complex rules they are subject to around the world.” The report also highlights how the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic could increase the pressure on families in the coming years and argues that the pandemic has added to the urgency of managing family businesses and carefully planning generational transfers.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Friday October 30, 2020:

  • The United States reported over 90,000 daily cases for the first time on Thursday as 21 states reported their highest daily number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients since the pandemic started. More than 1,000 people died from the coronavirus in America on Thursday, the third time the country has hit that number in October. The spike in numbers is coinciding in what Republicans and Democrats are calling the country’s most important election in the U.S. history on Tuesday. Hotly contested states such as Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are among those dealing with the deadly spike in cases.
  • In Canada, new federal modeling shows Canadians must reduce the number of close contacts they have with other people by 25% in order to suppress the second wave of the coronavirus. “If we increase, or if we even maintain our current rate of contact with others, the epidemic in Canada is forecast to continue increasing steeply,” said Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam. “To bend the epidemic curve and reduce transmission to lower levels… we must really reduce the number of contacts as much as possible.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau echoed the sentiments of Canada’s chief health official, calling on Canadians to continue following public health guidelines – particularly physical distancing and reducing close contacts with others.
  • According to a Bloomberg report, the United Kingdom’s drug regulator has started accelerated reviews of COVID-19 vaccines under development from Pfizer and AstraZeneca in hopes to get Britons inoculated as soon as possible. The U.K. Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency have started a rolling review of the Pfizer vaccine in recent weeks, while also conducting an expedited review of AstraZeneca’s vaccine, which is being co-developed with the University of Oxford. Rolling reviews allows the regulators to see clinical data in real time, which allows for discussions with the drugmaker about potentially granting regulatory approvals more quickly.
  • Slovakia is looking to take a drastic move to help stop the spread of COVID-19 in its country after cases have skyrocketed in recent weeks. Starting this weekend, the country is setting out to test almost everyone over the age of 10 for coronavirus. Slovakia’s population sits at 5.4 million people and was one of the most successful countries in Europe during the first wave, shutting down quickly in March. However, 80% of Slovakia’s 55,091 total cases were recorded this month, which has put enormous pressure on its health care system. China has tried similar testing strategies in hotspots of certain cities, but so far no other European Union nation has tried what Slovakia is about to attempt. 
  • Japan is also moving ahead with an interesting experiment this weekend over a three-day period which will see baseball games played in a 32,000-seat stadium that will be anywhere from 80-100% full. This is an exception to government guidelines that states sports venues should operate at half capacity. Japan is experimenting with their eyes looking ahead to the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games, scheduled to be in held in 2021. Engineers have installed dozens of high-resolution cameras and sensors at the stadium, which will monitor mask-wearing fans and their movements. CO2 detectors will also be used to measure crowd density. All of this information will then be loaded into Japan’s “Fugaku” – a supercomputer. So far, Fugaku has been used to simulate the spread of airborne droplets inside trains and classrooms, and also when people wear different kinds of facial coverings. 
  • As countries all over the world move forward with different stay-at-home measures to help bend the curve of the second wave – it should come as no surprise that one world leader is not a fan. Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro, a long-time critic of any lockdown measure that could hurt the economy weighed in with his opinion on Thursday stating it is “crazy” for countries to start locking down again to gain control of the coronavirus. During his statement, President Bolsonaro also reiterated that he will not pay for the Chinese vaccine that is under clinical trial in the city of Sao Paulo. “Find another. I am the government, the money is not mine, but the people’s. I am not going to buy your vaccine also. Find another to buy your vaccine,” said Bolsonaro.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

KKR Invests Record $6.2 Billion With Turmoil Spurring Deals

Brief: KKR & Co. deployed a record amount of capital in the third quarter, taking advantage of turmoil spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic. The firm invested about $6.2 billion in markets across private equity, infrastructure and real estate, New York-based KKR said Friday in a statement. That figure surpassed its previous peak of $5.5 billion in the second quarter. This year “is on pace to be the most active deployment and fundraising year in our history,” co-Chief Executive Officers Henry Kravis and George Roberts said in the statement. KKR has been one of the industry’s busiest dealmakers during the pandemic and has said the crisis will be an inflection point for its business. In July, the firm agreed to buy retirement and life insurance provider Global Atlantic Financial Group in a deal that could be valued at more than $4 billion, giving it a major presence in the insurance industry and adding long-term capital.

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Goldman Money Funds’ Liquidity Buffer Swells Before U.S. Election

Brief: Two Goldman Sachs Group Inc money-market funds, whipsawed in March by billions of dollars of investor withdrawals, have steadily amassed a liquidity cushion much larger than rivals, as the $4.35 trillion industry braces for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and another global surge in coronavirus cases. The funds’ weekly liquidity - a barometer of how quickly investments can convert to cash in a week - rose to 85% of total assets this week, according to disclosures here by the bank. That is about double the level when Goldman Sachs in March injected nearly $2 billion of the bank’s own capital into the funds to prevent them from falling below the regulatory weekly liquidity threshold of 30%. “We actively manage liquidity in our funds as dictated by the market environment,” Goldman said in an email statement. Average weekly liquidity at about 111 U.S. prime institutional money-market funds, like the Goldman funds, was 66% at the end of September, up from 54% in the year-ago period, a Reuters analysis of U.S. regulatory filings show. Those 111 funds hold about $300 billion in assets, or 9% of the $4.35 trillion in money funds.

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What Investors Said – And Actually Did – During the Covid-19 Crash

Brief: There’s a mismatch between what investors say they believe and what they actually do with their portfolios. A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research serves up a rare real-time analysis of how the stock market crash in March shaped investors’ expectations about the market and their subsequent trading behavior.  “There are many studies on investors’ beliefs and many studies on trading. But, there’s no study to link the two,” said Stefano Giglio, professor of finance at Yale School of Management and one of the authors of the paper, called “Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash.”  “The main results were striking,” Giglio said in an interview with Institutional Investor. As one example, he noted that investors’ overall beliefs about the probability of a large stock market drop went up enormously from 4.5 percent to 8 percent between February and April, while the perceived likelihood of a GDP disaster went up from 5 percent to 8.5 percent.  Researchers surveyed investors about their views of the market and economy in February, before the Covid-19 crash and near the market’s record high. They polled investors again in March near the low as the pandemic shut down global economies, and in April when markets had recovered much of the initial loss. The researchers then looked at investors’ actual trading behavior over the period. 

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Brookfield’s Flatt Bets Offices Will Fill Again as Cities Revive

Brief: Working from home is overrated and everyone will be back in the office before you know it. In today’s climate, with an election just days away, that could be a political statement. But for Bruce Flatt, chief executive officer of Brookfield Asset Management Inc., it’s his contrarian outlook on the pandemic, and a rationale for why he’s ready to spend billions of dollars on real estate in the next 18 months. He dismisses the flight of young families to the suburbs as an “anomaly” and the permanent work-from-home policies popular in Silicon Valley as impractical because “the efficiencies are not even close” to being in a shared workplace. If anything, he said, tech companies are leasing or buying more downtown space, not less. Flatt -- who oversees some US$200 billion of commercial property, including dozens of office towers -- argues big cities are resilient: London survived the Blitz during World War II, and New York bounced back from the 1918 Spanish Flu, the terrorist attacks in 2001 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. “People like to associate with other people, they like to be the ‘in’ thing, there are jobs and employment, they can walk to work, they can do all the things that come along with it, and this is not stopping it,” Flatt said in a Bloomberg Front Row interview. “These cities are not going away.”

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Covid Isn’t the Only Big Fear for Investors

Brief: European shares have been pounded in recent days because of the tightening of lockdown restrictions in places such as France and Germany. The latter has suffered especially badly in the markets. The last eight trading sessions have wiped more than 10% off German equities. Understandably, investors are banking profits after a stellar run for the Dax index. It has been the best performer in Europe this year — up more than 50% since the March lows of the first Covid wave — driven by a resumption of exports to a resurgent China. But there is another contributor to the recent dip in European stock markets. While things do indeed look bleak again for the region’s leading economies, this drop is also being driven by a global de-risking by investors ahead of next Tuesday’s U.S. election. European bond markets aren’t reacting with quite the same concern. The havens of German and French bonds are barely changed in yield despite Wednesday’s announcement of effectively a second lockdown in both countries.

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The Managers Who Found Unlikely Covid-19 Winners

Brief: The Covid-19 pandemic produced some obvious winners and losers for equity portfolio managers: Amazon and Zoom surged, while airlines and hotels tanked. But some enterprising fund managers have wound up picking winners that, at first blush, wouldn’t seem like safe bets in the middle of a raging viral outbreak.  To wit: boating stocks. An environment in which 12.6 million people are unemployed and the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is up just 1.5 percent may not seem like a natural time for people to run out and buy boats, a particularly expensive hobby. (An old joke posits that “boat” actually stands for Break Out Another Thousand.) But Yaron Naymark, portfolio manager of New York based, value-focused hedge fund 1 Main Capital, was early to spot the potential for growth in anything related to outdoor activities as a result of the pandemic. With restaurants and movie theaters closed in many places, he reasoned, people would look for things to do outside — and away from crowds.  Sure enough, sporting goods of all stripes have been booming this year. That’s anecdotally obvious to anyone who has tried to buy a bicycle in the past few months, but it’s also borne out by the numbers: Naymark cites Walmart earnings calls in which management reported big growth in sales of all-terrain vehicles, among other outdoor-centric items. 

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Thursday October 29, 2020:

  • United States House Speaker and Democrat Nancy Pelosi is continuing a push towards a coronavirus stimulus package agreement with the Trump administration. Pelosi has been negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and has tried to make her pitch via the media – stating she sent a letter to Mnuchin for responses as talks toward a deal have stalled since Senators left the capitol ahead of the general election in a matter of days. In the letter she cited a number of differences that were not resolved during the pre-election scramble talks, including a national testing strategy, state and local government relief, enhanced unemployment insurance, along with several other areas for credit/relief for Americans. The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to media’s requests for an answer to Pelosi’s demands.

  • In Canada, the two most populous provinces – Ontario and Quebec continue to deal with surges of new cases. Quebec reported more than 1,000 new cases on Thursday, but government officials at least received some good news after hearing a group of gym owners backed off their threats to reopen in spite of lockdown orders. The counter threat from government officials stating not only the owners of the gym, but clients as well, would be fined was enough to get the gym owners to back off for now. The province hardest hit by COVID-19 was also expected to receive 30,000 COVID-19 rapid tests, which was their first batch. Meanwhile, Ontario reported 934 new cases on Thursday, pushing their seven-day average to nearly 900. Canada’s largest city – Toronto set a new record with 420 cases beating their previous record of 330 by a considerable margin.

  • In the United Kingdom, the Financial Times is reporting more than 500,000 companies are showing signs of “significant financial distress” due to the coronavirus pandemic. Significant distress is defined as those businesses with minor county court judgement (an order for a company to pay off its debts) of less than £5,000 filed against them, or which have been identified by a credit scoring system. The rise comes even as rules around insolvency and closing down have been relaxed and the government pouring in billions of dollars through the job furlough scheme. However, many of those schemes are coming to end this year, which are sparking concerns of more corporate failures to come in 2021.

  • In a televised address, France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced a new coronavirus lockdown Wednesday evening. The President admitted a curfew for Paris and other major cities imposed two weeks ago hasn’t been able to halt the second wave. Therefore, starting Thursday evening bars, restaurants and non-essential businesses will be forced to close and written statements will be required for people to leave their homes. The latest enforcements are expected to be in place until at least December 1st.

  • In Spain, the parliament has approved another six-month state of alert. The move gives the central government emergency powers aimed at putting a dent in the rapid spread of COVID-19 through the country. Earlier in the week, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government imposed a nationwide curfew between 11PM to 6AM and allow regional governments to close their borders and ban meetings of more than six people. Spain has been one of the hardest hit countries in Europe becoming the first to surpass one million total cases of the coronavirus in the EU bloc.

  • Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte said he would favour a government-to-government deal for the purchase of future COVID-19 vaccines as a way to prevent corruption. “Let me tell everybody that we will not beg, we will pay”, said Duterte in a pre-recorded address earlier in the week. President Duterte has repeatedly said he has received assurance from China that his country would be a priority when a vaccine becomes available, but is looking more like a mid-2021 release and not the December 2020 timeline Duterte pitched in previous messages. During his announcement, Duterte also ordered the extension of the quarantine in Metro Manila, along with six other areas in the country until the end of November.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Credit Suisse Shutters Funds in Asset Management Review

Brief: Credit Suisse Group AG is closing down funds and laying off employees at its alternative asset management business after several of the strategies struggled to perform in the volatility caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The bank’s actions include shuttering a quantitative fund and taking a 24 million Swiss franc ($26 million) charge on seed capital in a U.S. real estate fund in the third quarter, Chief Financial Officer David Mathers said in an interview, declining to name the funds or detail the extent of the layoffs. Asset managers are facing challenging market conditions amid the pandemic, with hundreds shuttering or in the process of closing down, including AJO Partners, a $10 billion quantitative fund manager, and macro hedge fund firm Tse Capital Management. Credit Suisse earlier this month said that Aventicum Capital Management, a joint venture with the Qatar Investment Authority, will close two groups of funds and return capital to investors. “We have seen some of these funds struggling in this environment -- their strategies have not succeeded in the volatility that has happened with Covid-19,” Mathers said Thursday. “The credit business is doing fine, it’s some of the smaller ones.”

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“A Better Way to Invest”: Big Society Capital’s Sir Harvey McGrath says Structural Change is Coming to the Asset Management Industry

Brief: At a time when governments around the world are burning through billions attempting to rescue citizens from the financial pain of coronavirus, which has created severe crises in healthcare and employment, Big Society Capital says there is a crucial opportunity to use private money to fund social causes.Big Society Capital was one of the first institutions to champion impact investing in the UK. It was established in April 2012 as a private company with the purpose of building the social impact investment market, under a pledge made by former Prime Minister David Cameron. “There's no doubt that the Covid crisis has really reinforced the momentum that was already there,” says its chairman, Sir Harvey McGrath, adding that there has been a “fairly strong flow” of recent inbound inquiries from investors. Some of this interest is “directly a function of the crisis”, but McGrath also considers this to be part of a broader paradigm shift taking place in the finance industry at large, as generational change boosts demand for value-aligned money management.

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Investors Pull $2.5 Billion from Junk Debt, Most Since September

Brief: U.S. high-yield bond funds suffered the biggest outflows since the end of September, as investors sought to limit their risk exposure amid growing coronavirus infections across the world and ahead of the upcoming U.S. election. High-yield investors pulled $2.5 billion out of retail funds during the week ended Oct. 28, according to data compiled by Refinitiv Lipper. It’s the first withdrawal since the $3.59 billion yanked in the reporting period ended Sept. 30, and follows an inflow of $150.9 million last week. Investors fleeing the asset class to seek safety elsewhere are also taking out cash from high-yield exchange-traded funds. Two junk-bond sales were pulled from the primary market this week, and other borrowers are sweetening terms to get deals done. High-yield spreads had widened 47 basis points this week through Wednesday, the most since the week ended Sept. 25, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data. Junk bonds sold off alongside stocks and oil, which both fell to new lows this week.

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Companies are Planning for Remote Work Through 2021 Due to Covid, says ServiceNow CEO

Brief: ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott told CNBC on Thursday that business leaders are making preparations for their employees to work remotely through next year due to the coronavirus pandemic. McDermott, whose company provides cloud-based software that automates IT and employee workflow, was responding to a question about his conversations with fellow chief executives as they seek to navigate a world upended by Covid-19. There will undoubtedly be a long-term shift with a larger percentage of employees who can work remotely doing so, McDermott said on “Squawk on the Street.” He predicated a “hybrid world,” where employees routinely split time between working in the office and at home. But more near term, he said, “the other thing I’m hearing is people are already preparing for working from home or working from anywhere through 2021, because even if you do get a vaccine, it’s obviously not going to get through the global population for somewhere upwards of a year, probably a year and a half from now.”

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BlackRock Defies Stock Chaos With Small-Cap Value ETF Launch

Brief: Few things divide opinion on Wall Street like the outlook for small-cap stocks or the fate of the value strategy. Yet most market players would probably agree it’s a tough time to launch a product combining the two. That’s exactly what BlackRock Inc. is doing with a new exchange-traded fund. The iShares Factors US Small Cap Value ETF began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SVAL on Thursday. The fund screens for value-oriented stocks in the Russell 2000 Index based on liquidity, volatility, leverage and analyst sentiment and then weights securities equally. It’s an eye-catching arrival given the backdrop. Small-cap shares and value strategies have been battered anew this year as the coronavirus sparked an economic crisis. U.S. equities endured yet another bout of volatility this week, a broad selloff that has spared few sectors. Even after those declines, the S&P 500 Index has still gained 1.2 per cent year-to-date. The Russell 2000 Index, by contrast, is roughly 7.5 per cent lower and value stocks -- those that look cheap relative to fundamentals -- are down more than 15 per cent.

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Brace for a ‘Fairly Scary Time’ on Wall Street, Wells Fargo Warns

Brief: Wells Fargo Securities’ Michael Schumacher has a message for investors: Buckle up. The firm’s head of macro strategy warns Wednesday’s market turbulence may just be a preview of what’s ahead. “When you think about the U.S. elections, Covid worsening [and] all sorts of other news items coming out in the next couple of weeks, it could be a fairly scary time,” Schumacher told CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Dow had their worst days since June 11 due to growing fears over rising coronavirus cases across the nation. There’s speculation they could spark new containment measures and closures. While jitters over rising virus cases drove the latest sell-off, Schumacher warns election uncertainty has the potential to pummel stocks even more. “One thing we pointed to for a while at Wells Fargo is the chance the election results are delayed. In that case, it’s almost certainly risk-off. So, a lot of reasons to be concerned over the next week to ten days,” he said. “Right now, it seems the virus has the upper hand, but it’s a very close call. And, frankly, these things are intertwined.”

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Wednesday October 28, 2020:

  • In the United States, Admiral Brett Giroir, who leads the government’s testing effort, says the country is at yet another critical point in the fight against the pandemic. With over 73,000 new cases reported on Tuesday, the new 7-day rolling average for COVID-19 cases is 71,832, a fresh new record and an increase of over 20% compared to a week ago, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. During an appearance on NBC Wednesday, Giroir emphasized that Americans, “can control the virus” by following public health measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, avoiding crowded gatherings and frequent washing of hands.
  • The Bank of Canada lowered its predictions of economic growth for 2021, cautioning that the effects of the coronavirus pandemic will be long-lasting. The Bank of Canada projected the country’s GDP to expand 4.2% next year, down from the 5.1% they projected back in July. However, Canada’s central bank does believe 2020 won’t end as badly as originally thought thanks to a stronger performance than anticipated over the summer months. The drop in 2020’s GDP for Canada is expected to be at around 5.5%, which is better than the earlier 7.8% estimate. The Bank of Canada’s outlook though is taking two major factors into account: that widespread lockdowns won’t be utilized again and that a vaccine or effective treatment will be widely available by the middle of 2022.
  • In the United Kingdom, new modeling from the government’s emergency scientific committee suggests Prime Minister’s Boris Johnson’s localized coronavirus lockdown approach will be redundant by mid-December. The reason being is the model suggests that the whole of England will likely require the toughest restrictions they have seen since the first initial lockdown back in the spring. The model is outlining more deaths than the first wave because while the peak will be lower, the cold winter months will allow the daily death toll to stay higher for longer. This is news Prime Minister Johnson definitely doesn’t need as he is struggling to find a balance between the demand of the scientists who wanted a “circuit breaker” shutdown and his Conservative party members who want to prioritize easing of rules to help the economy.
  • Germany’s federal and state governments have agreed on Wednesday to shut down parts of the economy and toughen restrictions on social contact. The new regulations to come into effect as of Monday, will see all restaurants, bars and most public entertainment to be closed until the end of November. The German professional football league, along with other professional sports will be played, but without spectators. Schools, daycare centers, hair salons and retailers can remain open. Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet with state leaders in two weeks for a reassessment in order to evaluate the efficiency of the measures and make any necessary adjustments.
  • Increasingly worried by the spread of the virus over continental Europe, the European Commission has unveiled plans to improve EU-wide coronavirus testing and tracing. The Commission plans to extend the linked network of contract tracing apps launched in Germany, Italy and Ireland last week to as many of the other 24 nation member bloc as possible. The Commission also proposed that member states should co-ordinate strategies for rapid testing, vaccination and travel around the bloc.
  • In Australia some good news out of Melbourne as the city emerges from its 112-day lockdown on Wednesday. The lockdown was one of the strictest the world has seen – enforcing home confinement, travel restrictions and closures of stores and restaurants. At its peak in July, Victoria state was experiencing 700 cases a day, the majority of those in Melbourne. Over the weekend, there were zero cases noted. State Premier Daniel Andrews praised the six million residents of the region: “Fundamentally, this belongs to every single Victorian who has followed the rules, stayed the course, worked with me and my team, to bring this second wave to an end.”

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Blackstone Third-Quarter Earnings up on Strong Asset Sales

Brief: Blackstone Group LP said on Wednesday its third-quarter distributable earnings rose 9% year-on-year, as the world’s largest manager of alternative assets such as private equity and real estate took advantage of a rise in corporate valuations to cash out on some of its leverage buyout investments. Distributable earnings - cash available for paying dividends to shareholders - totaled $772 million, up from $710 million a year earlier. This translated into distributable earnings per share of 63 cents, surpassing analysts’ average estimate of 57 cents, according to data compiled by Refinitiv. Blackstone said its private equity portfolio appreciated 12.2% in the quarter, compared with an 8.5% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 stock index over the same period. Opportunistic and core real estate funds rose 6.4% and 3.5% respectively. Blackstone’s shares were down 2.9% in afternoon trading, in line with the broader market.

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Europe is Leading the Way Down in Markets Gripped by Covid Fears

Brief: Europe’s race to contain the pandemic is raising alarm bells across financial markets. Moves from stocks to the euro and Italian bonds show investors are grappling with the economic fallout from lockdown restrictions that are now some of the toughest in the world. While markets globally have taken a dip this week, the hit was most severe in Europe. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank as much as 2.7% on Wednesday, reaching the lowest level since May. In contrast, U.S. equities are only at a three-week low and Asian markets have barely budged. “A second lockdown could well be the death knell for a lot of businesses who just about survived the first lockdown,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. The selloff on Wednesday was sparked by news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will propose closing bars, restaurants and leisure facilities for a month. France is also expected to announce new curbs after coronavirus deaths reached the highest since April. In Italy, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte approved a plan to limit opening hours for restaurants and shut gyms. In Spain, the government has imposed a national curfew.

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Cash Builds for Property Debt Funds with Crisis Delayed for Now

Brief: Real estate debt investors are stockpiling cash, searching for opportunities to lend to commercial-property owners hurt by the pandemic. Property debt funds, including at Blackstone Group Inc., raised $14.1 billion from April through September, compared with $15.7 billion a year earlier, according to research firm Preqin Ltd. Yet the expected flood of deals has so far been just a trickle. Now there are signs of a thaw. On one side, competition is building to put that cash to work, motivating some lenders to take on higher risks. On the other, borrowers are growing desperate as loan extensions start to expire on malls, hotels and even some offices that are still struggling as Covid-19 continues to ravage the U.S. economy. “If you’re willing to do it, you’ll get a lot of deals, but you have to be willing to play in those sectors and take some risks,” said Mark Fogel, chief executive officer of Acres Capital LLC, a New York-based commercial property lender. He said he’s getting almost twice as many calls from borrowers looking to refinance their debt or get bridge loans to stay afloat than just a few months ago.

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Consolidation is Coming for the Asset Management Industry

Brief: Fee pressures, growing costs, and a desire for scale are signs that the fragmented asset management industry is ripe for more mergers and acquisitions, according to Morgan Stanley. The top 10 asset management companies hold just a 35 percent share of the $90 trillion market, Morgan Stanley said in a research report dated October 25. The only industry more fragmented, the bank said, is the capital goods sector. Although strong financial markets have helped assets under management swell, this growth has masked problems like outflows, fee pressures, and lower revenue growth, the report said. The market downturn and investor exodus in March revealed some of these problems, but after the market bounced back, they stabilized. Still, Morgan Stanley expects that the market crisis will accelerate these existing trends, motivating some asset managers to make M&A decisions more quickly.

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Japanese Insurers Look to Domestic Bonds as Yield Gaps with Foreign Peers Narrow

Brief: Japanese life insurers, among country’s largest institutional investors, are returning to the domestic bond market after many years of forays into foreign debt as the yield gaps between them have shrunk following the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of them plan to increase their holdings of domestic fixed income assets while planning to reduce those of foreign debt in the second half of the current financial year to March, officials said at news conferences or in interviews with Reuters. “We have long been investing primarily in U.S. dollar bonds but now that their yields have fallen to so low, we are not in a position to buy them aggressively anymore,” said Koichi Nakano, general manager for investment planning at Meiji Yasuda Life. Foreign bonds have been a major source of income for Japanese institutional investors who had been deprived of interest income at home due to the Bank of Japan’s hyper-easy monetary policy. The coronavirus outbreak and subsequent monetary easing around the world to shore up battered economies, however, knocked down bond yields in the United States and elsewhere, shrinking the yield gaps between Japan and the rest of the world.

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These Allocators Say They Are Sticking With Value Managers

Brief: Value managers have underperformed for over a decade — a trend that has only intensified during the coronavirus pandemic and run up to the U.S. presidential election. But they can count on at least one group of asset owners to stay committed to value strategies: private-sector pensions. Corporate and health care retirement plan investors surveyed by consulting firm NEPC have largely reported that they would maintain their current exposures to value stocks. The poll took place in September, a month when the Standard & Poor’s 500 value index fell almost 4 percent. Just under three-quarters of corporate pension investors said they would not reduce or increase allocations to value managers, as did 80 percent of healthcare plan respondents.  Of the 19 percent of investors who were considering changes to their value exposure, just 7 percent planned on cutting allocations to value managers. Nearly twice as many — 12 percent — wanted to rebalance from growth managers into value strategies.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Tuesday October 27, 2020:

  • After confirming the vote for Amy Coney Barrett as the latest judge to join the Supreme Court, United States Senate members have departed the Capitol for a pre-election break, thus making it almost impossible a coronavirus stimulus package will be passed anytime soon. The latest negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have the Trump administration at $1.9 trillion for a plan, while the Democrats are at $2.4 trillion. Besides the $500 billion gap on stimulus, both sides continue to bicker on the language of the bill. When Fox News pressed a White House spokesperson on Tuesday for the prospects of a deal, she said, “we’re hoping within weeks”.

  • In Canada, a survey from FP Canada, a professional organization for financial planners, found that more than two in five Canadians believe their finances won’t be able to withstand a second wave of COVID-19. The survey’s results revealed 30% of Canadians already worry they’ll never recover from the economic impact of the pandemic, while 42% don’t believe they could survive a second wave. Canadians also aren’t too optimistic their fortunes will be changing anytime soon – with just under 13% believing the country’s economy will strengthen in the next six months.

  • United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s coronavirus restrictions are even starting to get under the skin of his own party. More than 50 Conservative members of Parliament have demanded the prime minister show a clear path out of lockdown for parts of northern Britain, which helped give the Conservative party the majority they won in last year’s election. The large group of MPs’ are warning Johnson his localized strategy is seen as disproportionally targeting areas of the north, thus deepening the divide between the region and the wealthier south of England. 

  • Ahead of a key meeting on Wednesday, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing to propose tougher restrictions on movement and contact in order to stem the surge of the coronavirus. Chancellor Merkel will propose measures such as closing restaurants and banning major events to Germany’s 16 state premiers. However, such as her other European counterparts, Merkel does not want to go back to a lockdown such as the spring – instead wanting to keep the economy running with schools and daycares remaining open, unless they are in regions with exponentially higher infection rates. 

  • In the midst of a pandemic, you would think a country would make sure their doctors are being paid – however this doesn’t seem to be the case in India. Hundreds of frontline doctors, along with other healthcare workers have launched an indefinite strike in Delhi over months of unpaid salaries. The physicians have been staging sit-in demonstrations and hunger strikes for weeks to demand the authorities release their salaries that are overdue by three months. Delhi is India’s national capital and has been one of the worst affected areas in the country during the coronavirus pandemic. 

  • According to the region’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam, Hong Kong is drafting a law that would make COVID-19 tests mandatory for people with symptoms and other specific groups. During a weekly briefing, Lam said the enacted law would mandate tests for known clusters and high-risk groups but didn’t elaborate any further. The government had mentioned earlier in the month it was studying legal framework for mandatory coronavirus testing. The news comes as Hong Kong plans to ease some restrictions this week such as allowing restaurants to operate at a 75% capacity (up from 50%) and masks won’t be required when exercising in indoor venues.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

How Fund Due Diligence Has Changed During Covid-19

Brief: Private equity relies heavily on manager skill (alpha) with a large divergence between the strongest and weakest performers in a cohort. Studies have shown that it is possible for some investors to effectively navigate this disparate market and consistently add value, through careful fund selection. Robust due diligence processes, both investment and operational, are a critical part of successful fund/manager selection, but how has this changed during the pandemic? The most obvious impact is from travel restrictions preventing on-site, in-person due diligence meetings. Investors are aware that reviewing track records and strategy can only provide a certain amount of comfort. A large part of the investment consideration is around the people, team dynamics and culture. There is a lot that can be gained from seeing how a team interacts with each other, when visiting a private equity firm’s office - it is often the smaller clues or comments before and after the formal meeting that provide the most insight. Forming a view over a conference call with the team in multiple locations is hard: there is a lack of “vibe” and nuance that can only be gleaned when in-person.

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Brazil’s Coronavirus Splurge is Sparking a Rebellion in Markets

Brief: President Jair Bolsonaro’s stimulus spending spree won praise far and wide for saving Brazilians from the worst of the pandemic’s economic pain. But now, as the worst of the health crisis eases, anxiety is mounting in financial circles about how he’s going to pay for it. Investors have been unloading the currency and stocks, sparking routs that are almost unparalleled in the world this year, and they’re increasingly refusing to buy anything but the shortest of short-term government bonds. At $107 billion, Bolsonaro’s relief program looks more like the massive stimulus packages engineered by the world’s wealthiest nations than those cobbled together by Brazil’s junk-rated peers in emerging markets. Equal to 8.4% of the country’s annual economic output, it’s even proportionally bigger than the plans enacted by the U.K. and New Zealand. All of which turns Brazil into something of a Covid-19 economic case study: Can a mid-tier developing nation emulate the fiscal and monetary response of the world’s most credit-worthy countries and get away with it? Or will it sink into financial crisis?

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Demonstrating Control in a Crisis: How Covid-19 has Reaffirmed the Hedge Fund Allocator Shift to Dedicated Manager Accounts

Brief: In the 12 years since the 2008 financial crisis, many large institutional investors have adopted Dedicated Managed Account (DMA) structures in order to address the challenges in commingled hedge funds that were exposed during the crisis (click here for a brief refresher). These investors were well-prepared to more effectively manage their portfolios through the market volatility which has resulted from the Covid-19 pandemic while eliminating many of the structural risks that can be exacerbated during a crisis scenario. Let’s look at some of the ways that allocators in 2020 have been able to use the benefits of DMAs to more effectively manage through the market impact of Covid-19.

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Pharmaceutical Industry M&A Activity Grew by 17 Per Cent in H1 as Deal Values Drop 56 Per Cent

Brief: According to the research data analysed and published by ComprarAcciones.com, merger and acquisition (M&A) deal activity in the pharmaceutical sector rose by 17 per cent in H1 2020, disregarding the economic toll of the global pandemic. It saw a total of 41 deals during the period, but the Q2 2020 deal value total of USD3.3 billion was the lowest quarterly total since Q1 2018. According to PwC, the pharma sub-sector posted a drop of 56 per cent in deal value from H2 2019 to H1 2020. For the PLS sector as a whole (pharma, biotech and medical devices), the decline in deal value was a massive 87.2 per cent during the same period. Pharma and Life Sciences (PLS) M&A Total Deal Value Sank from USD272.9 billion to USD35 billion YoY. The total deal value for the pharmaceutical sub-sector in H1 2019 was USD100.1 billion. In contrast, its total deal value in H1 2020 was valued at USD7.7 billion.

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Listed U.K. DB Sponsors Issue Profit Warnings Over COVID-19

Brief: More than 60% of listed companies sponsoring defined benefit plans issued a profit warning in the first three quarters of the year as they worked to balance cash flows with meeting pension obligations. Of the 524 profit warnings from U.K. companies, 228, or 44%, came from firms that sponsor a DB plan. Many of the warnings cited the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as a reason, showed analysis by Ernst & Young. Also, 48 sponsors of U.K. DB funds issued more than one warning in the nine-month period.  The sectors with the highest number of warnings were travel and leisure, industrial support services, construction and materials, retailers and household goods and home construction. While these sectors were the hardest hit, a third of all listed companies issued profit warnings in the nine months to Sept. 30.  However, in the third quarter, listed companies that sponsor a DB plan issued 32, largely COVID-19 related, profit warnings, down 25% from the same period in 2019.

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Mideast’s Top Private Equity Firm Ready to Pounce as Rivals Fade

Brief: The biggest private equity and alternative asset manager in the Middle East is on the lookout for deals after the economic fallout of the pandemic made companies cheaper to buy and scandals thinned out the competition. Investcorp Holding BSC, which manages about $34 billion, is looking to do more in the region across the health-care, transport, logistics and industrial sectors, said Walid Majdalani, the firm’s head of private equity for the Middle East and North Africa. The firm, which has channeled $1.4 billion into the region over the past decade and made a return of about 1.8 times on invested capital, is also facing less competition from other private equity investors, he said. Over the past four years, Investcorp helped sell three family-controlled companies in which it held stakes on the Saudi stock exchange. “We see a lot of opportunity to replicate what we have done already in Saudi Arabia -- the difference is now business owners are a lot more realistic about valuations,” Majdalani said. “Also, in terms of other people who do what we do and have teams on the ground, today we don’t see a lot of competition.”

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Monday October 26, 2020:

  • “I think we are right now at the cusp of what is going to be exponential spread in parts of the country.” These were the words of United States Food and Drug Administration head (FDA) Dr. Scott Gottlieb via CNBC on Monday. Over the past seven days, America has recorded an average of about 68,767 new cases every day, the highest seven-day average recorded yet. The latest record is putting stress on local hospital systems and forcing new curfews and other restrictions in some parts of the country.
  • In Canada, the federal Conservative party’s plan B to probe the Liberal party’s leadership through the coronavirus pandemic now has the two largest parties at odds with one another. A parliamentary vote is expected to pass on Monday, which would direct the government to hand over to the House of Commons health committee a series of documents, emails and records. The Liberal government has pledged not to treat this motion as a confidence matter (won’t trigger a national election), as was the case last week, but nonetheless aren’t happy this is taking place. The federal government is arguing the release of these documents could jeopardize the ability to secure critical supplies such as personal protective equipment, rapid tests and vaccines in the future. The opposition Conservatives reject this theory has a form of “fearmongering” and counter they just want to make sure the government’s response to the pandemic is actually working.
  • In the United Kingdom, the Financial Times is reporting the vaccine being produced in coordination by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford has produced a robust immune response in elderly people, the group at the highest risk from succumbing to the coronavirus. The vaccine seems to trigger protective antibodies and T-cells in older age groups. Elsewhere in the country on the vaccine front, health secretary Matt Hancock tried to lower expectations of an expedited launch of the COVID-19 vaccine before the end of the year, stating on Monday that bulk inoculation from an expected vaccine won’t come until the first half of 2021.
  • Just a few weeks ago, Italy was touting their response to the second wave of the pandemic. All of that changed though over the weekend as the government announced their strictest coronavirus enforcements since May. The new rules were not taken well by some who protested in large Italian cities and feuded with police over the weekend. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s latest plan is to limit opening hours for bars and restaurants, while shutting down entertainment, gambling venues and gyms. Italians are also being urged not to travel with the restrictions in effect until November 24th.
  • Over the weekend in Poland, President Andrzej Duda tested positive for the coronavirus and is now in quarantine. A spokesman for the President said he is feeling well, but Duda did visit the National Stadium in Warsaw on Friday where local officials were transforming the area into a pop-up COVID-19 hospital. Last week, Poland registered a record number of COVID-19 four separate times, prompting the government to establish new coronavirus restrictions.
  • Dubai is planning to offer 500 million dirhams, or $136 million USD, of aid for businesses adversely effected by the coronavirus. The announcement was made via social media by Crown Prince Hamdan Bin Mohammed. The package will consist of rent breaks and elimination of government fees and fines for some businesses. Dubai is recognized as the financial hub of the Middle East and has been hit hard by the pandemic as they rely heavily on trade and tourism. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected the United Arab Emirates’ economic output to shrink 6.6% in 2020.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Hedge Fund Giants Lose Their Appeal as Havens in Global Turmoil

Brief: Investors have thronged the largest hedge funds since the last financial crisis as they sought safety in size. Now, they’re paying a hefty price. Supersized funds are failing their clients during a period of market upheaval that in theory should pose an unprecedented chance to make money. Instead of profiting, though, some of the world’s biggest hedge funds have barely managed to protect their investors from losses. A Hedge Fund Research gauge that gives more weight to larger players was down 4.4% this year through September, while all hedge funds on average managed to eke out a small profit. Gold-plated names that have slumped include Bridgewater Associates, quant powerhouses Renaissance Technologies and Winton, Michael Hintze’s CQS and Lansdowne Partners. The losses are largely hurting influential institutional investors -- pension funds, insurers and endowments -- that contribute most to the industry’s assets and back the biggest funds. A reckoning looms as clients accelerate their flight. Investors pulled $89 billion from hedge funds in the first nine months of the year, mainly from large firms, according to Eurekahedge data. “A very large portion of the assets invested in large hedge funds have not performed all that well and so it’s causing investors to reassess their objectives,” said Chris Walvoord, global head of hedge fund research at investment consultant Aon Plc. They’re asking, “Why am I invested in this? What’s the purpose?”

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Wall Street Tumbles as Virus Cases Soar, Stimulus Hopes Fade

Brief: U.S. stocks decline picked pace on Monday afternoon, setting the Dow for its worst day in more than seven weeks, as soaring coronavirus cases and a political deadlock over the fiscal relief bill raised doubts about the fate of the economy recovery. New infections have touched record levels in the United States, with El Paso in Texas asking citizens to stay at home for the next two weeks. In Europe, Italy and Spain imposed new restrictions. Travel-related stocks, vulnerable to COVID-19 related curbs, dropped. The S&P 1500 airlines index fell 5% and cruise line operators Carnival Corp and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd shed more than 9.5% each. “People are nervous about the expansion in cases,” said Christopher C. Grisanti, chief equity strategist, MAI Capital Management, Cleveland, Ohio. “The administration has said it does not want to slow down the economy yet as cases rise they may not have a choice.” Energy index tracked a more than 3% fall in oil prices. Other economically-sensitive industrials and financials sectors posted the steepest percentage declines among S&P sectors.

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COVID-19 Pandemic Deals Body Blow to Quant Models, Study Shows

Brief: The coronavirus pandemic has dealt a body blow to the quantitative model-based style of investing, with a majority of the firms using such strategies negatively impacted, a study by Refinitiv has found. In a report, financial data provider Refinitiv said 72% of such investors were hurt by the pandemic. Some 12% declared their models obsolete and 15% were building new ones. Machine-learning refers to the use of complicated mathematical models and algorithms based on historical data in order to make predictions without being explicitly programmed to do so. While such machine-driven models had success in the past as historical correlations among different asset classes held firm, they have suffered in the wake of the pandemic as these linkages have broken down. These quantitative models have also suffered in 2020 as the amount and complexity of the inputs that go into such algorithms to generate trading signals have exploded in recent years. “COVID-19 presented a large shift in many of the market dynamics and many institutions would have had to revisit a large portion of the models that they had in order to make them cope with what has been extreme market events,” said Amanda West, global head of Refinitiv Labs at Refinitiv.

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Bridgewater’s Prince Warns of Severely Limited Growth Post-Covid

Brief: Bob Prince, co-chief investment officer of the world’s biggest hedge fund at Bridgewater Associates, said an unusual combination of low interest rates and rising debt during the pandemic will “severely” limit potential growth rates in the aftermath of the pandemic. Fiscal policy will remain the primary source of stimulus, fueling the risk that government debts become too high and leading to pressure on exchange rates, he said. These problems will be more acute outside of Asia. “Global investors tend to be very Western-centric,” Prince said on Bloomberg TV. “The East is nothing like that. It’s not just China. A number of countries have done a much better job managing the virus without ballooning their fiscal deficits and printing money.”  Bridgewater’s Prince Says Bonds Are Risky in Zero-Rate World  Prince said his colleagues in China meet at the office without masks, whereas Bridgewater’s U.S. employees still work from home. “That economy is much closer to normal and the pricing of assets is much closer to normal,” he said. “There’s a substantial divergence occurring economically between East and West. As investors, you shouldn’t let yourself get completely locked into the West.”

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COVID Changing How Venture Capitalists Invest in IPOs

Brief: It takes a high degree of due diligence for investor capitalists to rifle through the mass number of investment opportunities to find that next big initial public offering (IPO). Just like how Microsoft was started in a garage, a lot these new generation IPOs will probably start in someone’s bedroom given the way Covid-19 has changed the world. According to a CNBC MakeIt article: “Another change toward a work-from-home world courtesy of Covid-19: Bill Gurley, who has invested in the likes of Uber and Zillow, says he’s now investing in start-ups that do not have a traditional office.” “We are now backing start-ups without offices, which isn’t something we had done before,” Gurley, who was a long-time investor with Silicon Valley venture capital Benchmark, said in the article. Furthermore, the article pointed out that “in a June survey by venture capital firm NFX, ‘60% of VCs said they were less likely to invest in start-ups that had the majority or all of its employees working remotely,’ the San Francisco Business Times reported.” “Remote companies are seen as more fragile, because employees can easily leave for the next remote job, NFX managing partner James Currier told the publication,” the article added. “And according to Trulia co-founder and NFX managing partner Pete Flint, being nimble and creative, as start-ups need to, is more easily accomplished when people are together in the same physical space.”

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COVID-19 Puts New Opportunities and Risks on the Agenda

Brief: The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the opportunity set and risks to which institutional investors are paying attention, with credit and potential bankruptcies high on the agenda. One challenge has been finding the right combination of the "least-worst" performing asset classes, said Troy Rieck, CIO of the A$13 billion ($9.2 billion) LGIAsuper, Brisbane, Australia, on a panel discussion Friday at the Pensions & Investments WorldPensionSummit conference. Mr. Rieck added that the super fund's executives do not try to second-guess forecasts related to political risks arising from elections or geopolitics when building the portfolio. Executives are trying to build portfolios with a focus on credit rather than equity, he said. Mr. Rieck added he is excited about infrastructure debt, real estate debt, regulatory capital arbitrage, high-yield and bank loans. "If it is credit-related, I want to own it," he said, adding that investors get "zero for cash and nothing for bonds. Besides those assets, "there is not much out there we like," he said. It could be a challenging decade if inflation does turn up, he said.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Friday October 23, 2020:

  • The United States hit a three-month high on Thursday, recording over 70,000 new cases of Covid-19. The staggering number of new infections marks the fourth largest single-day increase the country has seen since the pandemic began. According to The Atlantic’s Covid Tracking Project, hospitalizations in the country are up 33 per cent in October. The new infections are creeping across the Sun Belt, the Midwest and the northern states. A study conducted by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revealed yesterday that only 49 per cent of Americans report that they “always” wear a mask in public. Across the nation, only the state of Oregon is reporting a downward trajectory in new infections, while all other states are reporting increases.

  • In Canada, the reopening of schools has not been the disaster some had anticipated according to Dr. Michael Silverman, medical director of the infectious diseases care program at St. Joseph’s Hospital in London, Ontario. The decision to bring children back to the classroom was initially met with great resistance from parents who believed it was inevitable that the virus would run rampant through the schools. Just over 1500 cases have been reported in the Ontario public school system since classes began on September 5th, “for the vast majority of children and the vast majority of teachers, this has been a safe and effective intervention,” says Silverman. “That has led to children restarting their education, which has led to long-term benefits for all of us”

  • The United Kingdom is attempting a new method of pinpointing the spread of Covid-19 by processing wastewater in selected communities. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs began testing sewage in areas most affected by the virus in June and since then has been able to more accurately assess spikes in specific communities or institutions. The program has been largely successful, “particularly in areas where there may be large numbers of people who aren’t showing any symptoms and therefore aren’t seeking tests,” said UK Environment Secretary George Eustice. The information given to the National Health Service’s Test and Trace committee allows experts and community leads to take action to slow the spread of the virus in targeted areas.

  • India is no longer on track to pass the United States for the highest number of cases of Covid-19. While the virus is taking hold once more across the globe, India has seen decreasing numbers in October. The country’s top scientists believe that the virus had peaked in India in September and could potentially be under control by February of 2021. The news comes as roughly 100 Indian volunteers have signed up to be some of the first people outside of Russia to test the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. India has ordered over 100 million doses of the first registered coronavirus vaccine and has made arrangements with the Russian Direct Investment Fund and a local pharmaceutical company for the vaccines distribution when it becomes available. India has seen over 7.5 million cases of Covid-19 and has recorded over 115,000 deaths.

  • French Prime Minister Jean Castex has reinstated curfews for eight regions in country, admitting that the “second wave is here.” France and much of Europe have seen major increases in the virus over the last week causing the government to re-evaluate the current levels of regulation. The curfew will be introduced Friday at midnight is expected to last at least six weeks unless new cases vastly decrease during that time. With the daily number of new cases hovering around 30,000, the Prime Minister said that the virus is spreading less quickly than at the start of the pandemic, but its spread has become much more extensive. Castex on Thursday said, “the situation is grave,” with hospitals in Paris alone recording a 44 per cent occupancy rate and other parts of the country are seeing hospitalizations increasing at roughly the same pace.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Asset managers plan to outsource costly non-core work to focus on investing, poll finds

Brief: Asset managers plan to outsource functions such as data management and middle and back office operations in order to cut costs and focus on their core job of generating investment returns for clients, according to a survey by US manager Northern Trust. The poll found that 45% of respondents consider data management as the function most likely to be outsourced within the next two years. Some 40% are looking to outsource back room operations, and 38% at middle office functions. The survey of 300 asset managers, including 40% in Asia, was conducted in the first quarter of 2020. Respondents’ assets under management range between US$10 billion and $500 billion. According to Ryan Burns, head of global fund services at Northern Trust, asset managers are facing rising cost pressures, including those related to regulations and technology.

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Big Banks Moving Beyond COVID-19

Brief: Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS) are all fresh off earnings with the highly disruptive COVID-19 backdrop still festering. The headline numbers were fantastic with beats on both the top and bottom line for Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs, with Back of America missing on top-line revenue but beating on bottom-line profit. Big banks are evolving to the COVID-19 landscape domestically and abroad despite the possibility of widespread loan defaults, liquidity issues, ballooning credit card debt, and stressed mortgages. To exacerbate these COVID-19 impacts, interest rates, Federal Reserve actions, yield curve inversion, and liquidity are critical elements. The business's customer side continues to be problematic as the pandemic's duration continues to drag on with no signs of slowing. A segment of the consumer base is faced with lost wages and the real possibility of not meeting their financial obligations, which will unquestionably have a negative impact on revenue and earnings.

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Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones Expects $1.7 Trillion Stimulus Deal In Next Six To 12 Weeks

Brief: In a Thursday morning appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said he believes the next six to 12 months could be the most volatile period for markets he's seen in more than 40 years of trading, as a result of a blue wave election outcome that could pump trillions into the American economy. Tudor Jones, who founded Stamford, Conn.-based Tudor Investment Corporation in 1980, said he believes the U.S. presidential election will result in a victory for former Vice President Joe Biden and a blue wave in which Democrats gain control of the Senate and retain a majority of the House. That would allow for a "massive" $1.7 trillion stimulus in the next six to 12 weeks that would "undoubtedly benefit Main Street America," with an estimated $700 billion going toward another round of stimulus checks, the 66-year-old said.

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Goldman Sachs sends employees home after two Covid-19 cases on trading floors

Brief: Goldman Sachs has sent some employees at its Plumtree Court headquarters home after two staff on its London trading floors tested positive for Covid-19, as banks in the City keep some key workers in the office amid a spike in virus infections across the UK. In a memo to staff sent on 15 October, seen by Financial News, the bank said that one employee on the fourth floor of its London office and another on the fifth floor were self-isolating after testing positive with Covid-19. Equities trading is on the fourth floor, and its fixed income currencies and commodities unit is on the fifth, according to a person familiar with the matter. "If you have been identified as a close contact of these individuals, the Wellness team has already reached out to you to share guidance," the memo said.

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The Covid-19 Crisis Is Starting To Hurt State Bond Ratings. What Does This Mean For Your Investments?

Brief: Investors are losing trust in the Land of Lincoln. Illinois, the fifth largest state economy in the United States, is being forced to pay sky-high interest rates on its general obligation municipal bonds to compensate investors for the risk of lending the state money. The three largest credit rating agencies have not only classified Illinois debt as on the brink of junk, but they’ve also issued negative outlooks to boot. The Prairie State has plenty of company in this regard. Moody’s recently lowered the credit ratings of both New York State and New York City. New Jersey, despite being known as the state with the most millionaires per capita in the U.S., is considered a problematic bet—two credit rating agencies have it on negative outlook.

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Permanently remote workers seen doubling in 2021 due to pandemic productivity: survey

Brief: The percentage of workers around the world that is permanently working from home is expected to double in 2021 as productivity has increased during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a survey from U.S.-based Enterprise Technology Research (ETR). ETR in September surveyed about 1,200 chief information officers from around the world across different industries. The CIOs also expressed increased optimism about business prospects in 2021, as they see an increase in tech budgets by 2.1%, compared with a 4.1% decline this year due to the lockdowns triggered by the pandemic. The survey said information technology decision-makers expect permanent remote work to double to 34.4% of their companies’ workforces in 2021, compared with 16.4% before the coronavirus outbreak, a result of positive productivity trends.

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Contact Castle Hall to discuss due diligence

Castle Hall has a range of due diligence solutions to support asset owners and managers as our industry collectively faces unheralded challenges. This is not a time for "gotcha" due diligence - rather this is a time where investors and asset managers can and should work together to share best practices and protect assets. Please contact us if you'd like to discuss any aspect of how Covid-19 may impact your business.

Our briefing for Thursday October 22, 2020:

  • In the United States, a university study issued a damning report on the Trump administration’s handling of the coronavirus. A report from Columbia University’s Earth Institute’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness found anywhere between 130,000 and 210,000 deaths from COVID-19 in America could have been prevented. The study points to insufficient testing, a lack of national mandate, and delayed overall response as reasons for the high death rate. When comparing deaths measured by per 100,000 population, the United States’ mortality rate is 78 times higher than South Korea, 50 times higher than Japan, and twice as high as their neighbours north of the border – Canada. The study reports that South Korea and the United States both confirmed their first case of coronavirus on January 20th. 

  • In Canada, the federal Liberal minority government lived to see another day after surviving a confidence vote in the House of Commons on Wednesday. A vote was cast on the opposition Conservative government’s request to create a new committee to probe alleged Liberal corruption. The New Democrats, Green Party and independent members of parliament sided with the Liberals - 146 voting for the committee and 180 against. This means a snap election won’t be held in the country as Canada experiences the second wave of the pandemic. The opposition Conservatives though seem to be undeterred saying an investigation is needed so that Parliamentarians can learn from the mistakes of the first wave. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole points to the Liberal government’s slow response to the initial first wave, reluctance to close borders to travellers earlier and relying too much on advice from the World Health Organization as reasons the committee needs to be created.

  • In a news conference on Thursday, the United Kingdom’s chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance noted while some COVID-19 vaccine doses may be available before Christmas, it will be awhile longer before a widespread rollout will be available. “I remain of the view that the possibility of a sort of wider use of vaccines isn’t going to be until spring, or so, next year by the time we get enough doses and enough understanding of the outputs to use them,” said Vallance. Elsewhere in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at the same news conference that the government has begun to roll-out “lateral-flow” tests to schools and universities. These tests don’t require a lab or machine and deliver results within minutes. 

  • France has announced the extension of a night-time curfew to curb the spread of the coronavirus to two-thirds of its population – or 46 million people. French Prime Minister Jean Castex said 38 more of the 101 departments/regions would be undergoing the 9PM-6AM curfew as of midnight on Friday. Nine of France’s largest cities – including Paris are already under the curfew. Government ministers said 44% of France intensive care beds are now filled with COVID-19 patients.

  • The Philippines on Wednesday lifted a ban on non-essential foreign trips by Filipinos. Travelers wishing to go to other countries are required to show confirmed roundtrip tickets, travel and health insurance, a declaration acknowledging the risks of travel and trip delays, and a medical test within 24 hours of departure that clears them of COVID-19. The Philippines immigration bureau said the move didn’t spark immediate large numbers of tourism and leisure, which isn’t surprising since either many nations still have travel restrictions of their own, or now experiencing a second wave of the coronavirus.

  • Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has been fairly quiet for his standards since being diagnosed with the coronavirus himself back in the summer, but is now back with a vengeance. President Bolsonaro blasted a Chinese vaccine being tested in the country just one day after his third health minister during the pandemic announced a deal to purchase the potential coronavirus vaccine. Upon hearing the news, some of Bolsonaro’s most vocal supporters opposed the purchase of a vaccine from a foreign nation. Therefore, Bolsonaro took to social media with the following statement (capital letters included) “The Brazilian people WON’T BE ANYONE’S GUINEA PIG.” Bolsonaro added that billions can’t be spent on medication that is still being tested and his decision is not to acquire the aforementioned vaccine.

Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management

Investors Brace for Barrage of Covid Vaccine Data to Roil Market

Brief: The next month or two has the potential to wreak havoc in the health-care sector and the market as a barrage of Covid-19 vaccine test results roll in at the tail end of the U.S. presidential election. “The vaccine outlook will ultimately dwarf the election in terms of market impact,” Goldman Sachs’ strategists said. An earlier-than-expected vaccine would send equity values higher while a delay could send the market lower no matter what the election’s outcome, the bank’s analysis shows. With an emergency use authorization now expected around year end, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is convening a meeting Thursday to set the stage. Mostly it will be the agency looking to get a public endorsement on their stance on Covid-19 vaccine safety guidance and to ease concerns over the politicization of an approval, SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges said in an interview. Results from vaccine front-runners, Pfizer Inc. and German partner BioNTech SE, are expected within the next few weeks. Moderna Inc. may follow closely behind in November. And the first late-stage data from a single-shot regimen, Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine, could have results before the end of the year. The study however, is currently paused.

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Harvard Posts $10 Million Loss with More Financial Strife Ahead

Brief: Harvard University posted a $10 million operating loss in fiscal 2020 and said it’s likely revenue will decline for a second straight year due to the Covid-19 crisis. That would be a first for the school since the 1930s, Harvard said in its annual financial report Thursday, adding that measures including coronavirus testing and tracing and reconfiguring classrooms and dorms have driven up costs. “The financial effects on Harvard from the onset of the pandemic in March of this year were significant and sudden,” Thomas Hollister, vice president for finance, and Treasurer Paul Finnegan said in the report. “The hardest part likely lies ahead with ongoing challenges” from the virus, they said. Higher education has been hit hard by Covid’s economic fallout as schools have been forced to empty campuses, offer courses remotely and close facilities. That has led to a sharp drop in enrollment across the U.S., especially among first year students. Yet even with the bleak outlook, Harvard said its net assets increased by $893 million to $50.2 billion as of June 30 due to the strong performance of the endowment under N.P. “Narv” Narvekar. The endowment, valued at $41.9 billion, returned 7.3% in the last fiscal year and distributed $2 billion of revenue for university operations, according to the report.

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Big Name Asia Hedge Funds Raise Billions, Startups Struggle

Brief: Established Asian hedge funds have attracted the lion’s share of new money this year, while startups have been hamstrung by global travel curbs that have made it impossible for face-to-face meetings with European and U.S. asset allocators. Well-known firms including Tribeca Investment Partners Pty, Pleiad Investment Advisors Ltd., Dymon Asia Capital (Singapore) Pte. and Sylebra Capital have drawn more than $3 billion of new money among them this year. That contrasts with the net $3.1 billion that flowed out of regional funds in the first eight months of 2020, according to Eurekahedge Pte. Meantime, the median raising for new Asia funds this year is just $20 million. “Asset raising has been possible this year, but it has been materially more challenging,” said Matthew Whitehead, chief operating officer of Hong Kong-based Sylebra…  With a shortage of local institutional allocators to hedge funds, Asian managers rely on U.S. and Europe sovereign wealth funds, university endowments, charitable foundations and pensions for stickier money. That makes them particularly vulnerable to the Covid-19 travel restrictions.

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Financial Crime Compliance Costs Top $42B in U.S./Canada

Brief: A new study of financial crime compliance costs found spending by American and Canadian financial institutions is up sharply in 2020, driven in part by the coronavirus pandemic. The True Cost of Financial Crime Compliance Study, released Wednesday and compiled by LexisNexis Risk Solutions, projected the cost of financial crime compliance at $42 billion across U.S. and Canadian financial firms this year. The costs break down to $35.2 billion for U.S. firms and $6.8 billion for Canadian firms. Total costs are up 33 percent over 2019, the report said. Survey respondents included 150 financial crime decision makers (120 American, 30 Canadian) polled via telephone during August. The individuals worked in financial crime compliance at banks, insurance companies, investment firms, and asset management firms. The total annual cost of compliance across firms was calculated using survey data on financial crime costs as a percent of total assets and secondary data that provides the total assets for all financial institutions in the United States and Canada. The spend amount was generated by multiplying the average percent allocated to financial crime costs by the reported total asset amount, according to the survey’s methodology.

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DWS Donates More Than GBP370,000 to UK-Based Covid-19 Research Effort and Relief

Brief: Earlier this year DWS announced it would donate EUR1 million (GBP905,000) to charitable organisations in countries around the world where DWS is active, and which have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic. In order to show commitment as a firm and to achieve the greatest possible impact, DWS also encouraged employees to make their own donations to these organisations. Nominated by DWS employees, GBP370,000 (EUR400,000) of this total has now been donated to three UK-based charities that provide services for socially disadvantaged people – especially the homeless and children, and a UK-based social enterprise to support research efforts to combat Covid-19 as well as other global epidemics and disease. “The Akshaya Patra Foundation UK” strives to tackle the issues of hunger, malnutrition and education by providing freshly cooked and nourishing meals to children in India and the UK. With the help of DWS, 170,000 meals and 5,250 dry grocery kits were distributed to vulnerable families, providing a total of 390,500 meals since the pandemic lockdown in India.

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Wall Street Forecasts More Asset Managers Will Merge to Survive

Brief: Asset managers are at a crossroads. Having faced the COVID-19 pandemic on top of years of pressure from shrinking fees and shifting investor preferences toward the industry's giants, money managers are debating whether to stick it out on their own or enter the deal market in search of scale or complementary products, Wall Street investment bankers, analysts and other experts say. All the while, the likes of BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. keep gobbling up assets.  "The stars seem to be lining up for more [deals]," said Mark Timperman, a managing director and head of asset management investment banking at Hovde Group who recently joined the Chicago-based company from Wells Fargo Securities LLC, in an interview. "After having been through a real scare with the COVID cycle, when there was another big market correction, people realized that it's time to think about where the industry ends up in five years." M&A has played a critical role in the investment management industry's evolution in recent years. Inexpensive passive investment vehicles and exchange-traded funds have driven down fees for the entire industry, with the race to the bottom going so far that some ETFs dabbled in paying investors, not the other way around. Asset managers have been buying up their peers in an effort to expand their offerings and asset bases so they can more competitively price their products.

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